We investigate the hypothesis by Winterwerp and Wang (Ocean Dyn 63:1279–1292, 2013) that channel deepening in the Scheldt River Estuary could lead to a large increase in suspended sediment concentrations, with subsequent severe consequences to primary production and navigation. To this end, we use an idealised model to investigate the long-term development of the sediment concentration under the uncertainty of future changes in model parameter values and channel deepening. The water motion is calibrated to recent conditions after which the sediment concentration is validated against long-term observations and is subsequently tested for a wide range of parameter settings and deepening scenarios. We also investigate the effect of anthropogenic dumping of dredged sediments in the estuary on the sediment concentration. Deepening the channel, but keeping all other model parameters the same, we find lower long-term average sediment concentrations in most of the estuary. Thereby, our results suggest that deepening in the Scheldt alone cannot lead to high sediment concentrations, and we suggest to reject the investigated hypothesis. Further study of uncertain model parameters reveals that an increase of the erosion parameter by an order of magnitude allows for the development of high concentrations of several tens of grams per liter near the bed in narrow turbidity zones. It is unknown whether such an increase of the erosion parameter can happen in the future, which stresses the importance of further research into the factors that can lead to a change of this parameter.

Many estuaries are strongly modified by human interventions, including substantive channel deepening. In the Ems River Estuary (Germany and Netherlands), channel deepening between the 1960s and early 2000s coincided with an increase in the maximum near-bed suspended sediment concentration from moderate (∼1 kg/m ³ ) to high (>10 kg/m ³ ). In this study the observed transition in the suspended sediment concentration in the Ems is qualitatively reproduced by using an idealized width-averaged iFlow model. The model is used to reproduce observations from 1965 and 2005 by only changing the channel depth between the years. Model results show an increase in sediment concentrations from approximately 1–2 kg/m ³ to 20–30 kg/m ³ near the bed between 1965 and 2005 if the river discharge is below 70 m ³ /s, which holds approximately 60% of the time. Thereby, this study for the first time provides strong evidence for earlier published hypotheses that channel deepening was the main driver of the increased sediment concentrations in the Ems. The results are explained using two aspects: sediment transport (longitudinal processes) and local resuspension (vertical processes). The magnitude of the sediment import increased, because a combination of channel deepening and sediment-induced damping of turbulence increased the M ₂ –M ₄ tidal asymmetry. This effect is particularly strong, because the M ₄ tide evolved to a state close to resonance. All imported sediment is kept in suspension when it is assumed that resuspension is sufficiently efficient, which depends on the value of the erosion parameter used and inclusion of hindered settling in the model.

Many estuaries are strongly deepened to improve navigation, with sometimes large and poorly understood consequences to suspended sediment dynamics. To improve understanding of such large changes, we study the Ems River Estuary, where a regime shift from low to high sediment concentrations was observed after deepening. The aim of this study is to improve understanding of the development of the sediment concentration regime over time and estimate the associated time scale. Using the idealized width-averaged iFlow model, we identify the coexistence of two distinct stable equilibrium regimes representing low and high sediment concentrations, qualitatively matching the regimes observed in the Ems. Depending on the river discharge, a critical depth profile is identified at which the regime shifts. By combining the model results and long-term observations of the tidal range, first indications of the regime shift are observed around 1989, taking approximately 6–7 years to develop.

A new depth-averaged exploratory model has been developed to investigate the hydrodynamics and the tidally averaged sediment transport in a semi-enclosed tidal basin. This model comprises the two-dimensional (2DH) dynamics in a tidal basin that consists of a channel of arbitrary length, flanked by tidal flats, in which the water motion is being driven by an asymmetric tidal forcing at the seaward side. The equations are discretized in space by means of the finite element method and solved in the frequency domain. In this study, the lateral variations of the tidal asymmetry and the tidally averaged sediment transport are analyzed, as well as their sensitivity to changes in basin geometry and external overtides. The Coriolis force is taken into account. It is found that the length of the tidal basin and, to a lesser extent, the tidal flat area and the convergence length determine the behaviour of the tidally averaged velocity and the overtides and consequently control the strength and the direction of the tidally averaged sediment transport. Furthermore, the externally prescribed overtides can have a major influence on tidal asymmetry in the basin, depending on their amplitude and phase. Finally, for sufficiently wide tidal basins, the Coriolis force generates significant lateral dynamics.

Using an idealized width-averaged process-based model, the role of a mud pool on the bed and time-varying river discharge on the trapping of fine sediment is systematically investigated. For this purpose, a dynamically and physically motivated description of erodibility is presented, which relates the amount of sediment on the bed to the suspended sediment concentration (SSC). We can distinguish between two states: in the availability-limited state, the SSC is limited by the amount of erodible sediment at the bed. Over time, under constant forcing conditions, the estuary evolves to morphodynamic equilibrium. In the erosion-limited state, there is an abundant amount of sediment at the bed so that sediment pickup occurs at the maximum possible rate. The SSC is then limited by the local hydrodynamic conditions. In this state, the estuary keeps importing sediment, forming an erodible bottom pool that grows in time. These two states can be used to explain the response of an estuary to changing river discharge. Under availability-limited conditions, periods of high river discharge push estuarine turbidity maxima (ETMs) downstream, while drier periods allow ETMs to move upstream. However, when the estuary is in an erosion-limited state during low river discharge, a bottom pool is formed. When the discharge then increases, it takes time to deplete this pool, so that an ETM located over a bottom pool moves with a significant time lag relative to changes in the river discharge. Good qualitative agreement is found between model results and observations in the Scheldt Estuary of surface SSC using a representative year of discharge conditions.

The iFlow modelling framework is a width-averaged model for the systematic analysis of the water motion and sediment transport processes in estuaries and tidal rivers. The distinctive solution method, a mathematical perturbation method, used in the model allows for identification of the effect of individual physical processes on the water motion and sediment transport and study of the sensitivity of these processes to model parameters. This distinction between processes provides a unique tool for interpreting and explaining hydrodynamic interactions and sediment trapping. iFlow also includes a large number of options to configure the model geometry and multiple choices of turbulence and salinity models. Additionally, the model contains auxiliary components, including one that facilitates easy and fast sensitivity studies. iFlow has a modular structure, which makes it easy to include, exclude or change individual model components, called modules. Depending on the required functionality for the application at hand, modules can be selected to construct anything from very simple quasi-linear models to rather complex models involving multiple non-linear interactions. This way, the model complexity can be adjusted to the application. Once the modules containing the required functionality are selected, the underlying model structure automatically ensures modules are called in the correct order. The model inserts iteration loops over groups of modules that are mutually dependent. iFlow also ensures a smooth coupling of modules using analytical and numerical solution methods. This way the model combines the speed and accuracy of analytical solutions with the versatility of numerical solution methods. In this paper we present the modular structure, solution method and two examples of the use of iFlow. In the examples we present two case studies, of the Yangtze and Scheldt rivers, demonstrating how iFlow facilitates the analysis of model results, the understanding of the underlying physics and the testing of parameter sensitivity. A comparison of the model results to measurements shows a good qualitative agreement. iFlow is written in Python and is available as open source code under the LGPL license.