SP

Simon Michael Papalexiou

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Milestones, achievements, challenges, and open problems in statistical hydrology

Journal article (2024) - Elena Volpi, Salvatore Grimaldi, Amir Aghakouchak, Attilio Castellarin, Fateh Chebana, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Hafzullah Aksoy, András Bárdossy, Elisa Ragno, More authors...
Statistical tools are crucial for a variety of hydrological applications, whether to model processes and enhance understanding and knowledge or to design infrastructure systems. Given the rapid evolution of statistical methods and the need for a solid theoretical foundation for their correct application, a multidisciplinary community STAtistics in HYdrology Working Group (STAHY-WG) aggregated under the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) umbrella to contribute to this research field. Now, more than 15 years since its inception, this paper summarizes the main achievements of this productive community collaboration in four (of many) branches of statistical hydrology: extreme value analysis, multivariate analysis, time series analysis, and regionalization. The aim is to provide an overview of recent developments, offer practical suggestions (e.g. software packages), and outline future challenges to support scientists and practitioners in their endeavours within the realm of statistical hydrology studies. ...
Review (2020) - Amir Aghakouchak, Felicia Chiang, Laurie S. Huning, Charlotte A. Love, Iman Mallakpour, Omid Mazdiyasni, Hamed Moftakhari, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Elisa Ragno, Mojtaba Sadegh
Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural and built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As the world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. The impacts of extreme events will also be more severe due to the increased exposure (growing population and development) and vulnerability (aging infrastructure) of human settlements. Climate models attribute part of the projected increases in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters to anthropogenic emissions and changes in land use and land cover. Here, we review the impacts, historical and projected changes,and theoretical research gaps of key extreme events (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, and flooding). We also highlight the need to improve our understanding of the dependence between individual and interrelated climate extremes because anthropogenic-induced warming increases the risk of not only individual climate extremes but also compound (co-occurring) and cascading hazards. Climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warming world. Anthropogenic-induced warming increases the risk of compound and cascading hazards. We need to improve our understanding of causes and drivers of compound and cascading hazards. ...