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Ali Abdelshafy

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26 records found

Journal article (2026) - Johanna Ruett, Ali Abdelshafy, Ben Wichelhaus, Grit Walther
Currently, biomass utilization is predominantly directed toward bioenergy (BE) production. Yet, alternative pathways such as biochar carbon removal (BCR) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are emerging options within negative emission technologies. Given limited biomass resources, determining their most beneficial allocation remains a pressing question. This study addresses the research gap by jointly evaluating the private investment perspective (net private benefit, NPB) and the broader societal perspective (net social benefit, NSB). Through an integrated assessment framework, the analyses compare biomass utilization pathways across a range of technological, regulatory, and market developments. Herein, wheat straw in Germany was selected due to its high theoretical potentials. Under current conditions, BE shows the highest NPB, followed by BECCS, while BCR displays a negative NPB without policy or market adjustments. However, all pathways demonstrate positive NSB when environmental externalities are monetized. Scenario analyses indicate that BECCS can surpass BE in NPB with incentives such as higher carbon removal credit, cost reductions, or improved CO2 storage infrastructure. BCR becomes NPB-positive under scenarios with either cost reductions or revenue increases. It surpasses BE only when both occur simultaneously but does not exceed BECCS in any scenario. As the energy sector decarbonizes, BCR and BECCS become increasingly competitive. The study emphasizes the need for flexible, context-dependent pathways and robust policy support to ensure that biomass utilization in Germany is viable from both private economic and societal standpoints. ...
Journal article (2026) - Stephan Bogs, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
The transition to a low-carbon economy necessitates effective carbon capture and storage (CCS) solutions, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors. Herein, pipeline networks are indispensable for cost-efficient (Formula presented.) transportation over long distances. However, there is deep uncertainty regarding which industrial sectors will participate in such systems. This poses a significant challenge due to substantial investments as well as the lengthy planning and development timelines required for (Formula presented.) pipeline projects, which are further constrained by limited upgrade options for existing infrastructure. The economies of scale inherent in pipeline construction exacerbate these challenges, leading to potential regret over earlier decisions. While numerous models were developed to optimize the initial layout of pipeline infrastructure based on known demand, a gap remains in addressing the incremental development of infrastructure in conjunction with deep uncertainty. Hence, this paper introduces a novel optimization model for (Formula presented.) pipeline infrastructure development, minimizing regret as its objective function and incorporating various upgrade options, such as looping and pressure increases. The model’s effectiveness is also demonstrated by presenting a comprehensive case study of Germany’s cement and lime industries. The developed approach quantitatively illustrates the tradeoff between different options, which can help in deriving effective strategies for (Formula presented.) infrastructure development. ...
Preprint (2025) - Stephan Bogs, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
The transition to a low-carbon economy necessitates effective carbon capture and storage (CCS) solutions, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors. Herein, pipeline networks are indispensable for cost-efficient transportation over long distances. However, there is deep uncertainty regarding which industrial sectors will participate in such systems. This poses a significant challenge due to substantial investments as well as the lengthy planning and development timelines required for pipeline projects, which are further constrained by limited upgrade options for already built infrastructure. The economies of scale inherent in pipeline construction exacerbate these challenges, leading to potential regret over earlier decisions. While numerous models were developed to optimize the initial layout of pipeline infrastructure based on known demand, a gap exists in addressing the incremental development of infrastructure in conjunction with deep uncertainty. Hence, this paper introduces a novel optimization model for pipeline infrastructure development, minimizing regret as its objective function and incorporating various upgrade options, such as looping and pressure increases. The model's effectiveness is also demonstrated by presenting a comprehensive case study of Germany's cement and lime industries. The developed approach quantitatively illustrates the trade-off between different options, which can help in deriving effective strategies for infrastructure development. ...
Journal article (2025) - Johannes Kern, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
The expansion of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is essential to achieve the climate targets. Among emerging CDR technologies, biochar holds particular promise due to its stable carbon storage and multiple co-benefits. While previous studies have examined the global potentials of biochar production, comprehensive assessments that include cost structures and spatial variability remain limited. This study addresses this gap and presents a comprehensive that integrates geospatial machine learning with techno-economic analysis to estimate region-specific biochar production costs at a global level. The derived approach estimates the biomass yields of various lignocellulosic biomass sources using an XGBoost machine learning model trained on climate and soil data. Roadside production costs are then calculated based on resource input parameters, followed by transport cost estimations using spatial distance metrics. Finally, pyrolysis costs are included to derive the total production cost of biochar per ton across regions globally. The results show substantial regional variation, with total production costs ranging from 113 to over 1500 €/ton. Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia demonstrate the lowest median costs, below 300 €/ton, primarily due to low labor and biomass costs. Eucalyptus emerges as the most cost-efficient biomass provided it is cultivated. While the Kontiki flame curtain kilns are more cost efficient in low-income regions, advanced-technology plants become competitive in industrialized areas, especially when district heat is considered. These insights are crucial for guiding investments and policies that aim to expand biochar use as a viable and cost-effective CDR pathway. ...
Journal article (2025) - Ali Abdelshafy, Till Strunge, Dietmar Stephan, Grit Walther
CO2 mineralization is a crucial carbon capture and utlization technique because it can sequester CO2 emissions permanently. There are various CO2 mineralization technological pathways, all of which are based on the reaction of CO2 with the metal oxides present in cementitious materials and virgin minerals. However, there are techno-economic obstacles that hinder their deployment, as well as various knowledge gaps regarding the prospective supply chains. Although these pathways have several differences, such as process configuration and costs, each is usually addressed individually and comparative analysis is lacking. In this contribution, we aim to address this knowledge gap via investigating the entire supply chain of each technology and contrasting their differences by presenting a case study from the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia. Methodologically, several approaches and tools are used, such as cost modeling and geographic information systems. Herein, we investigate the advantages and limitations by assessing six scenarios representing the different configurations of the relevant supply chains. Most scenarios are deemed infeasible at lower carbon prices, with only three considered viable below 100 €/ton CO2. Also, while concrete curing and concrete waste processes are constrained by material availability and logistics, CO2 mineralization of virgin minerals offers a more abundant alternative, albeit at a higher levelized cost. Therefore, the study provides valuable insights for the design of optimal and efficient CO2 mineralization supply chains, highlighting the need for a balanced approach that leverages the strengths of different pathways. ...
Journal article (2025) - Stefan Lange, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
The paper introduces a dynamic-locational MFA model to analyze the urban stock of bridges by integrating quantity, time, and location in one framework. The model is developed to assess existing materials in the urban stock, predict future demolition activities, quantify material flows, and analyze their spatial distribution. The derived framework depends on the structural conditions to anticipate lifetime and survival. For the empirical analysis and demonstration, a dataset of >12,000 bridges in North Rhine-Westphalia was compiled to provide the required information such as location, area, type and material. The analyses demonstrate significant variability in material flows across different times and locations. Some regions exhibited exceptional material flows, while others had very low flows, highlighting the importance of temporal and spatial aspects. The results also predict significant material flows over the next two decades in the investigated region, underscoring the urgency of circular economy and closer cooperation between stakeholders. ...
Journal article (2024) - Johannes Kern, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
The effectiveness of biochar as a soil amendment is highly dependent on local physical and chemical soil properties. Although the literature has already addressed biochar in several studies, there are still knowledge gaps. One the one hand, the relevant studies have primarily focused on field trials and small-scale applications at regional levels, overlooking the global perspective and regional differences. One the other hand, geospatial assessments lack quantitative evaluations and explanation, which are crucial for the model's applicability and the optimisation of biochar supply chains. Thus, this study addresses this gap by examining the impact of biochar on agriculture at a global scale. First, correlations between climate, soil, and fertiliser data, and maize yield are derived through Random Forrest machine learning algorithm. Subsequently, the relevant soil properties are adjusted to simulate the potential changes upon implementing biochar. Finally, the model projects the estimated maize yield following the introduction of biochar. Our findings demonstrate diverse effects of biochar, with notable increase in maize yield in arid regions of Africa and Asia. A substantial increase in maize yield is particularly expected in regions with a high bulk density, as biochar effectively loosens the soil, and in areas with a low soil organic carbon content, which is enhanced by biochar. Contrariwise, in northern South America, Central and North America, South-East Asia, and parts of Europe show low potential or even maize yield decreases. The model was also validated by comparing the results with 8 field trials from different countries, demonstrating a high level of accuracy. The outcomes are crucial for optimising biomass utilisation pathways, as it predicts the impact of biochar in different regions. Consequently, policy frameworks can be tailored to encourage biochar use in agriculture, especially in regions with the highest potentials, to fully leverage its sustainability and productivity benefits. ...
Journal article (2024) - Christopher Yeates, Ali Abdelshafy, Cornelia Schmidt-Hattenberger, Grit Walther
Carbon capture and storage will be necessary for some industries to reach carbon neutrality. One of the main associated challenges is the design of the network linking the CO 2 sources to the storage sites. Establishing a CO 2 network can be impacted by many uncertainties such as CO 2 amounts, pipeline routes and the locations of emitters and carbon sinks. We present a framework to investigate different scenarios of a future CO 2 network in Germany. The analyses compare the routes and associated costs of different scenarios. The developed model uses several geospatial datasets and an optimization scheme to yield realistic and cost-efficient outcomes. Parameters such as population density and existing infrastructure are integrated to calculate potential routes, which are then used as an input for the developed heuristic model to determine the optimum network. The derived framework is flexible and can be used for investigating other scenarios, regions and settings. The results show that the different scenarios have a profound impact on the optimal layout and costs. The investment costs of the investigated scenarios range between 1.3 and 3 billion EUR. The outcomes are important for academia, industry and policymaking for the ongoing discussions regarding the development of carbon infrastructure. ...
Journal article (2024) - Johanna Rütt, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
Conventional substrates like peat, stone wool and coconut coir are responsible for high greenhouse gas emissions in the horticultural sector, necessitating low-emission and cost-efficient alternatives. Herein, using miscanthus and biochar as substrate components as well as in cascading substrate application can be alternative practices in a sustainable bioeconomy. However, the carbon footprint and economic impacts of these practices in relation to crop yields have not yet been investigated. Hence, we combined life cycle carbon footprint assessment and costing to analyze the Global Warming Potential and value chain costs of horticultural substrates in tomato cultivation in North-Rhine Westphalia. We conducted a comparison between conventional substrates (peat, stone wool, and coconut coir) and single use and cascading miscanthus-based substrates with and without 1–2 % biochar addition of the miscanthus mass. Also, a subsequent scenario analysis was carried out to examine alterations in inputs and costs. Our results demonstrate that miscanthus-based substrates are climate-friendly and low-cost alternatives to the conventional practices. Switching to miscanthus-based substrates results in more emission savings than other input scenarios investigated. Additionally, incorporating biochar and adopting cascading methods contribute to lower emissions. Notably, biochar has the most significant impact, as its amount correlates with higher emission reductions. Additionally, costs for cascading miscanthus-based substrates are lower compared to conventional substrates. Overall, there is only a slight variance in costs between conventional and miscanthus-based substrates. However, with the introduction of carbon emission pricing and carbon removal certificates, miscanthus-based and biochar-containing substrates may emerge as more cost-efficient alternatives. Thus, by advancing financial instruments on carbon emissions and removal, introducing cascade use within and beyond the horticulture sector, and supporting cultivation of sustainable biomasses, miscanthus and biochar can effectively contribute to the development of a sustainable bioeconomy. ...
Other (2024) - Stephan Bogs, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
Journal article (2023) - Ali Abdelshafy, Alina Hermann, Sonja Herres-Pawlis, Grit Walther
Polylactic acid (PLA) is the bioplastic with the highest market share. However, it is mainly produced from first-generation feedstock and there are various inconsistencies in the literature in terms of its production and recycling processes, carbon footprint, and prices. The aim of this study is to compile and contrast these aspects and investigate second-generation PLA production from technical, economic, and ecological perspectives simultaneously. The comprehensive analyses also show the chances and challenges of originating a PLA supply chain in a specific region. Herein, the German Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has been chosen as a region of interest. In addition to highlighting the industrial capabilities and synergies, the study quantifies and illustrates the locations of different suitable second-generation feedstocks in the region. However, the identified potentials can be challenged by various obstacles such as the high demand of bioresources, feedstock quality, spatial aspects, and logistics. Furthermore, the substantial price gap between PLA and fossil-based plastics can also discourage the investors to include PLA on their portfolios. Thus, the study also provides recommendations to overcome these obstacles and promote the regional value chains of bioplastics which may serve as prototype for other regions. ...
Abstract (2023) - Stephan Bogs, Ali Abdelshafy, Christopher Yeates, Grit Walther
Journal article (2023) - Lars Finkewirth, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
Energy transition as a response to climate change requires structural transformation in the industrial sector. While some industries have already gained the attention of research studies due to their high production and emissions levels, there is an obvious lack of analyses on small but energy intensive sectors such as casting industry. Herein, the aim of this paper is to fill this knowledge gap by implementing an environmental assessment of the cast iron and steel melting technologies. The carbon footprint of four main types of furnaces and their variants have been determined. Moreover, sensitivity analyses have been conducted to quantify the impact of energy sources and electricity-mix. The analyses show the major differences between the environmental performances of melting technologies. As the GHG emissions depend on the adopted technology linked with specific amounts and sources of energy, the current technologies are associated with high carbon footprints (especially cupola furnaces). Therefore, reaching carbon neutrality necessitates fundamental changes in terms of types of furnaces and related energy sources. ...
Journal article (2023) - Rainer Radloff, Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
North-Rhine Westphalia is the center of the German and European steel production. Its steel industry is heavily based on the primary production route and emits up to 30 Mt CO 2 annually. One possible and increasingly prominent alternative to reduce these emissions is the hydrogen-based direct reduction. While this technology allows for a near climate-neutral production of primary steel, it poses substantial impacts on regional energy and material flows. Hence, the aim of this paper is to quantify the alterations in energy and material flows over time via integrating top-down energy and material flow models with bottom-up process models. The resulting values of emissions, energy, and material flows are then used to develop prospective scenarios that depict the requirements and consequences of potential pathways toward a climate-neutral steel production by 2045. The outcomes show that decarbonizing the North Rhine-Westphalian steel industry leads to an additional demand for renewable energies of up to 52.5 TWh per year, which represents 10% of the current electricity production in Germany. As securing the green electricity demand is a large challenge, the study also analyzes the impact of a partial recourse to natural gas as a reducing agent in combination with other measures like carbon capture and utilization/storage. The results show that such a recourse would reduce the electricity demand to 36.8 TWh. Hence, the paper illustrates relevant implications of the different scenarios, which can be used by policymakers to develop more realistic and resilient strategies for reaching carbon neutrality. ...
Report (2023) - Ali Abdelshafy, Grit Walther
Reaching carbon neutrality necessitates radical changes in terms of energy sources and industrial technologies. Some industries such as cement and lime emit significant amounts of process emissions, which will continue to be generated regardless of the type of energy source employed. One way to address such ‘hard-to-abate’ emissions is by employing carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies. Novel technologies such as CCUS undergoes continuous innovation before reaching high technological maturity and their commercial potential. To that extent, research and pilot projects represent an effective technology-push tool to minimize relevant uncertainties, risks and costs and increase the technology’s readiness level. In recent years, different CCUS demonstration projects have been implemented and financed differently. This study investigates the role of these projects in the future deployment of CCUS technologies, with focus on the European cement sector specifically. Overall, the paper aims to evaluate the status quo of decarbonization of the cement sector via CCUS and to discuss the required future activities and measures to enhance the technology’s integration into the sector. ...