Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, “XBNH”) was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a “Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments” (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.

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Very low frequency (VLF, 0.001–0.005 Hz) waves are important drivers of flooding of low-lying coral reef-islands. In particular, VLF wave resonance is known to drive large wave runup and subsequent overwash. Using a 5 month data set of water levels and waves collected along a cross-reef transect on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the observed VLF motions were categorized into four different classes: (1) resonant, (2) (nonresonant) standing, (3) progressive-growing, and (4) progressive-dissipative waves. Each VLF class is set by the reef flat water depth and, in the case of resonance, the incident-band offshore wave period. Using an improved method to identify VLF wave resonance, we find that VLF wave resonance caused prolonged (∼0.5–6.0 h), large-amplitude water surface oscillations at the inner reef flat ranging in wave height from 0.14 to 0.83 m. It was induced by relatively long-period, grouped, incident-band waves, and occurred under both storm and nonstorm conditions. Moreover, observed resonant VLF waves had nonlinear, bore-like wave shapes, which likely have a larger impact on the shoreline than regular, sinusoidal waveforms. As an alternative technique to the commonly used Fast Fourier Transformation, we propose the Hilbert-Huang Transformation that is more computationally expensive but can capture the wave shape more accurately. This research demonstrates that understanding VLF waves on reef flats is important for evaluating coastal flooding hazards@en