There has been an ever growing concern over addressing the issue of climate change and reducing the green house gas emissions (GHG) in the whole world and especially in the U.S. Many measurements are being taken into account for reducing the adverse effects of the GHG emissions a
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There has been an ever growing concern over addressing the issue of climate change and reducing the green house gas emissions (GHG) in the whole world and especially in the U.S. Many measurements are being taken into account for reducing the adverse effects of the GHG emissions as well as making equilibrium between climate security and energy security which further paves the way for moving forward to a more green economy. Also energy independence is playing an increasing role in the political landscape. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology as one kind of solar renewable energy technology has gained significant momentum in recent years. CSP is gaining acknowledgement for its potential to produce large volumes of power where it can be considered as an alternative source of energy which competes with the conventional fossil fuels. The main advantage of CSP is that its required energy is abundant and free, i.e. solar radiation. Characteristic for a CSP power plant is its industrial size based on heat transfer. Since NEM is a company active in the power business with expertise in the heat transfer equipment, it wants to pursue the new business opportunities in the CSP market. There exist different CSP market potential locations around the globe which can be considered for development of CSP project. The U.S. is perceived to be one of the main competitors-along with Spain-in the close future which is expected to gain a lion share of this solar energy market. However, the U.S. electricity market is subject to many uncertainties and thus investors in the electricity sector may be reluctant to take up technologies which involve higher risks. In essence, this research pursued to study the associated uncertainties that are embedded in the U.S. CSP energy market and investigated the directions in which this market can grow in the future term. In this research at first, the CSP technology assessment has been carried out. This includes elaboration on the basic characteristics and functionalities of three types of CSP technology which includes Parabolic Trough, Power Tower (or central receiver) and Liner Fresnel technology. Further, major key components which are of great importance both from the perspective of the market viability as well as shaping the U.S. CSP energy market are introduced. Next, the research builds on its methodological grounds for studying and analyzing the concept of uncertainty which is the focal point of this thesis. In essence, literature review on the concept of uncertainty and its background is performed. In order to profoundly come up with a valid and comprehensive framework for uncertainty analysis, it was crucial to study and discuss the most two important dimensions of uncertainty, that is the typology of sources and types of uncertainty. According to this sort of classification, an uncertainty-analysis framework was ultimately developed which encompassed all the aforementioned concepts. Furthermore, the methods and tools that can be used in dealing with uncertainty are presented. In fact, numerous methods can be found in the scientific literature, both qualitatively and quantitatively for reducing the issue of uncertainty. However in the framework of this research, scenarios -mainly from the policy analysis perspectivewas chosen to deal with the associated uncertainties in projection of the U.S. solar CSP market. Finally in the last phase of the research, the developed “uncertainty-scenario” framework is applied. The results from this step of the research indicate that the U.S. CSP energy market is highly reliant and impacted by couple of major uncertain forces which can be categorized as economic and financial, legal and political and finally social and behavioral forces. Further amid these identified forces and system changes, the research underlined three highly uncertain factors which have high impact on the renewable energy system namely as governmental regulatory regimes and supporting schemes, project financing (or the availability of money) and energy consumption. On the other hand, the current credit crisis has also been identified as a major force and cause of system change which affects almost all of these forces which has rippled through almost all renewable energy market sectors including CSP. Nevertheless, according to these identified highly uncertain forces which can cause great deals of impact on the system, scenarios for depicting plausible futures of the U.S CSP market are explored. These qualitative scenarios are created in a way to encompass different extremes on how the CSP future market can unfold namely as the base-case scenario, the low-case scenario and the high-growth case scenario. In the last step of this research, according to each of the derived scenarios relevant recommendation to NEM is provided. These recommendations are presented from two perspectives. In first place, recommendations for per-case developed scenario are provided. Next, recommendations in a more general perspective are presented. These mainly include acknowledging the kinds of decisions that should be taken where insufficient knowledge exists in connection to the development of technologies, such as CSP.