JT
Jakob Zink Thellufsen
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3 records found
1
Examining pathways for a climate neutral Europe by 2050
A model comparison analysis including integrated assessment models and energy system models
Journal article
(2025)
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Efstratios Mikropoulos, Mark Roelfsema, Hsing Hsuan Chen, Iain Staffell, Gabriel Oreggioni, Dan Hdidouan, Jakob Zinck Thellufsen, Miguel Antonio Chang, Stefan Pfenninger, More Authors...
The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less common due to the complex nature of climate and energy modelling. Our study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target. Both scenarios project reduced final energy consumption by 2050, driven by increased electrification and decreased fossil fuel usage. Electricity consumption increases driven by electrification despite the improved efficiency of electrified technologies. Models align on a shift toward renewables but diverge in technology and fuel choices, reflecting various approaches to reach net-zero energy systems. Furthermore, trade-offs between energy demand and supply mitigation strategies, as well as between renewable energy, e-fuels, and CCS technologies are identified. Considering these model variations, our study highlights the importance of consistent model comparison to offer reliable recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. We conclude that model diversity is a valuable asset when used sensibly.
...
The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less common due to the complex nature of climate and energy modelling. Our study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target. Both scenarios project reduced final energy consumption by 2050, driven by increased electrification and decreased fossil fuel usage. Electricity consumption increases driven by electrification despite the improved efficiency of electrified technologies. Models align on a shift toward renewables but diverge in technology and fuel choices, reflecting various approaches to reach net-zero energy systems. Furthermore, trade-offs between energy demand and supply mitigation strategies, as well as between renewable energy, e-fuels, and CCS technologies are identified. Considering these model variations, our study highlights the importance of consistent model comparison to offer reliable recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. We conclude that model diversity is a valuable asset when used sensibly.
Journal article
(2021)
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A. Nikas, A. Gambhir, I. Sognnaes, G. P. Peters, E. Colombo, M. Howells, A. Hawkes, M. van den Broek, D. J. Van de Ven, M. Gonzalez-Eguino, A. Flamos, H. Doukas, E. Trutnevyte, K. Koasidis, H. Lund, J. Z. Thellufsen, D. Mayer, G. Zachmann, L. J. Miguel, N. Ferreras-Alonso
Europe's capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence. Noting the lack of such a dedicated channel for the highly active yet currently fragmented European modelling landscape, we highlight the importance of transparency of modelling capabilities and processes, harmonisation of modelling parameters, disclosure of input and output datasets, interlinkages among models of different geographic granularity, and employment of models that transcend the highly harmonised core of tools used in model inter-comparisons. Finally, drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the need to expand the modelling comfort zone, by exploring extreme scenarios, disruptive innovations, and questions that transcend the energy and climate goals across the sustainability spectrum. A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of “collective” science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research.
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Europe's capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence. Noting the lack of such a dedicated channel for the highly active yet currently fragmented European modelling landscape, we highlight the importance of transparency of modelling capabilities and processes, harmonisation of modelling parameters, disclosure of input and output datasets, interlinkages among models of different geographic granularity, and employment of models that transcend the highly harmonised core of tools used in model inter-comparisons. Finally, drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the need to expand the modelling comfort zone, by exploring extreme scenarios, disruptive innovations, and questions that transcend the energy and climate goals across the sustainability spectrum. A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of “collective” science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research.
Journal article
(2021)
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Miguel Chang, Jakob Zink Thellufsen, Behnam Zakeri, Bryn Pickering, Stefan Pfenninger, Henrik Lund, Poul Alberg Østergaard
Energy system models are crucial to plan energy transition pathways and understand their impacts. A vast range of energy system modelling tools is available, providing modelling practitioners, planners, and decision-makers with multiple alternatives to represent the energy system according to different technical and methodological considerations. To better understand this landscape, here we identify current trends in the field of energy system modelling. First, we survey previous review studies, identifying their distinct focus areas and review methodologies. Second, we gather information about 54 energy system modelling tools directly from model developers and users. Unlike previous questionnaire-based studies solely focusing on technical descriptions, we include application aspects of the modelling tools, such as perceived policy-relevance, user accessibility, and model linkages. We find that, to assess the possible applications and to build a common understanding of the capabilities of these modelling tools, it is necessary to engage in dialogue with developers and users. We identify three main trends of increasing modelling of cross-sectoral synergies, growing focus on open access, and improved temporal detail to deal with planning future scenarios with high levels of variable renewable energy sources. However, key challenges remain in terms of representing high resolution energy demand in all sectors, understanding how tools are coupled together, openness and accessibility, and the level of engagement between tool developers and policy/decision-makers.
...
Energy system models are crucial to plan energy transition pathways and understand their impacts. A vast range of energy system modelling tools is available, providing modelling practitioners, planners, and decision-makers with multiple alternatives to represent the energy system according to different technical and methodological considerations. To better understand this landscape, here we identify current trends in the field of energy system modelling. First, we survey previous review studies, identifying their distinct focus areas and review methodologies. Second, we gather information about 54 energy system modelling tools directly from model developers and users. Unlike previous questionnaire-based studies solely focusing on technical descriptions, we include application aspects of the modelling tools, such as perceived policy-relevance, user accessibility, and model linkages. We find that, to assess the possible applications and to build a common understanding of the capabilities of these modelling tools, it is necessary to engage in dialogue with developers and users. We identify three main trends of increasing modelling of cross-sectoral synergies, growing focus on open access, and improved temporal detail to deal with planning future scenarios with high levels of variable renewable energy sources. However, key challenges remain in terms of representing high resolution energy demand in all sectors, understanding how tools are coupled together, openness and accessibility, and the level of engagement between tool developers and policy/decision-makers.