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Stefan Pfenninger

91 records found

Model-based scenarios are widely used to guide energy planning and climate policy decisions. While the mathematical and physical foundations of many techno-economic models assume universal truth and objectivity, their application to explore a yet unwritten future demands a more n ...

Examining pathways for a climate neutral Europe by 2050

A model comparison analysis including integrated assessment models and energy system models

The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less ...

The optimal is not always the best

Life cycle impacts of near-optimal energy systems

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) can be used to guide long-term energy transitions but often overlook environmental impacts and the diversity of solutions close to the cost-optimal one. Here, we combine an ESOM using Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) with Life Cyc ...
Electricity- and hydrogen-based sector coupling contributes to realizing the transition towards greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system. Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net- ...

Harder, better, faster, stronger

Understanding and improving the tractability of large energy system models

Background: Energy system models based on linear programming have been growing in size with the increasing need to model renewables with high spatial and temporal detail. Larger models lead to high computational requirements. Furthermore, seemingly small changes in a model can le ...
Energy transition policies can be translated into narratives about how energy systems should change (e.g., towards a centralised or decentralised system). These narratives tend to reflect expectations, priorities, and perceptions on feasibility and the social acceptability of dif ...

Author Correction

A global model of hourly space heating and cooling demand at multiple spatial scales (Nature Energy, (2023), 8, 12, (1328-1344), 10.1038/s41560-023-01341-5)

Correction to: Nature Energyhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01341-5, published online 14 September 2023. In the version of this article initially published, there was a typographical error in the third term of equation (2) in the Methods section, which now reads “S ...

Open code and data are not enough

Understandability as design goal for energy system models

Energy system models do not represent natural processes but are assumption-laden representations of complex engineered systems, making validation practically impossible. Post-normal science argues that in such cases, it is important to communicate embedded values and uncertaintie ...
Climate change and geopolitical risks call for the rapid transformation of electricity systems worldwide, with Europe at the forefront. Wind and solar are the lowest cost, lowest risk, and cleanest energy sources, but their variability poses integration challenges. Combining both ...
Wind power has considerable potential to decarbonise electricity systems due to its low cost and wide availability. However, its variability is one factor limiting uptake. We propose a simple analytical framework to optimise the distribution of wind capacity across regions to ach ...

Land-free bioenergy from circular agroecology

A diverse option space and trade-offs

Bioenergy from energy crops is a source of negative emissions and carbon-neutral fuels in many 1.5/2 ∘C IPCC pathways. This may compete with other land uses. In contrast, ancillary biomass like by-products and waste is not primarily grown for energy and thus without land/food/fee ...

Past peak prominence

The changing role of integrated assessment modeling in the IPCC

The main task of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide comprehensive assessments of climate science. However, there are accusations of bias toward certain research fields based on limited empirical evidence. By analyzing the evidence base of Working G ...
Indonesia has large renewable energy resources that are not always located in regions where they are needed. Sub-sea power transmission cables, or island links, could connect Indonesia's high-demand islands, like Java, to large-resource islands. However, the role of island links ...
This study examines the impacts of both CO2 emission restrictions and energy import/export policies, on the Italian transport sector using Euro-Calliope model, i.e. an integrated model of transport and energy systems at the European level.
Novel wind technologies, in particular airborne wind energy (AWE) and floating offshore wind turbines, have the potential to unlock untapped wind resources and contribute to power system stability in unique ways. So far, the techno-economic potential of both technologies has only ...
During atypical droughts, power systems with a heavy reliance on hydropower risk increased greenhouse gas emissions if they are balanced with fossil-fired generation. This work investigates the role of offshore wind energy in reducing the vulnerability of power systems dependent ...
Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To s ...

Challenges and opportunities for bioenergy in Europe

National deployment, policy support, and possible future roles

Bioenergy is currently a major renewable energy source in Europe but faces an unclear future because of conflicting modelling results and the lack of long-term policy. This paper identifies three challenges and potential opportunities by analysing bioenergy's historical national ...