F. Lombardi
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1
Pathways that describe the optimal evolution of energy systems across multiple decades are important in energy system research and policy literature, with net-zero and similar climate policies being common drivers behind them. While there are many studies on aspects such as spatial and operational resolution, model features, and model transparency, there has been little attention on the methodological considerations of formulating pathway studies in mathematical optimisation terms, and how these methods have evolved over time. To address this, we conduct a systematic review of optimal pathway literature at or above the national level focusing on the following: i) the implications of model foresight choices, ii) end effects and related issues that may bias model outcomes, iii) trade-offs in model resolution, and iv) investment dynamics. We showcase how modellers have dealt with these aspects in a large sample of studies spanning multiple decades, and provide recommendations to both modellers and model users on identifying issues that can bias model results and how to improve upon them. In particular, we identify opportunities to better balance long-term anticipatory planning with high operational and spatial detail in models, and to improve the communication and systematic treatment of those mathematical design choices that potentially distort model decisions across time.
...
Pathways that describe the optimal evolution of energy systems across multiple decades are important in energy system research and policy literature, with net-zero and similar climate policies being common drivers behind them. While there are many studies on aspects such as spatial and operational resolution, model features, and model transparency, there has been little attention on the methodological considerations of formulating pathway studies in mathematical optimisation terms, and how these methods have evolved over time. To address this, we conduct a systematic review of optimal pathway literature at or above the national level focusing on the following: i) the implications of model foresight choices, ii) end effects and related issues that may bias model outcomes, iii) trade-offs in model resolution, and iv) investment dynamics. We showcase how modellers have dealt with these aspects in a large sample of studies spanning multiple decades, and provide recommendations to both modellers and model users on identifying issues that can bias model results and how to improve upon them. In particular, we identify opportunities to better balance long-term anticipatory planning with high operational and spatial detail in models, and to improve the communication and systematic treatment of those mathematical design choices that potentially distort model decisions across time.
Recoverable heat from electrolysis, fuel cells, and downstream hydrogen-to-X processes may provide an additional link between energy sectors. However, its system-level role and spatial implications remain insufficiently understood, as previous studies mainly focused on plant-level techno-economic assessments of individual technologies or local district-heating integration. This study addresses this gap using a spatially explicit optimization model of the Netherlands in 2050 to assess how hydrogen-related heat recovery affects the cost-optimal design of a sector-coupled energy system. The model optimizes both capacity and operation of supply, conversion, storage, and transmission technologies across Dutch provinces. Under base case assumptions, the results show that heat recovery reduces total annualized system cost by 2% (1.2 B€/yr), reduces battery capacity from 152 to 130 GWh and heat-pump capacity from 17 to 9 GW, while increasing electrolyzer capacity from 41 to 45 GW and underground hydrogen storage capacity from 33 to 37 TWh. Heat recovery substitutes part of dedicated district-heating supply and increases the use of hydrogen-related heat and hydrogen storage. Spatially, electrolyzer capacity shifts partly from locations mainly favored by renewable availability toward locations where recovered heat can be used in district heating, leading to greater use of hydrogen transmission infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis shows that higher district-heating shares moderately increase the value of heat recovery, while heat transport distance and hydrogen-cavern availability affect the strength of this effect. These findings show that hydrogen-related heat recovery can influence not only local heat utilization, but also technology competition, spatial siting, and infrastructure needs in sector-coupled energy-system planning.
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Recoverable heat from electrolysis, fuel cells, and downstream hydrogen-to-X processes may provide an additional link between energy sectors. However, its system-level role and spatial implications remain insufficiently understood, as previous studies mainly focused on plant-level techno-economic assessments of individual technologies or local district-heating integration. This study addresses this gap using a spatially explicit optimization model of the Netherlands in 2050 to assess how hydrogen-related heat recovery affects the cost-optimal design of a sector-coupled energy system. The model optimizes both capacity and operation of supply, conversion, storage, and transmission technologies across Dutch provinces. Under base case assumptions, the results show that heat recovery reduces total annualized system cost by 2% (1.2 B€/yr), reduces battery capacity from 152 to 130 GWh and heat-pump capacity from 17 to 9 GW, while increasing electrolyzer capacity from 41 to 45 GW and underground hydrogen storage capacity from 33 to 37 TWh. Heat recovery substitutes part of dedicated district-heating supply and increases the use of hydrogen-related heat and hydrogen storage. Spatially, electrolyzer capacity shifts partly from locations mainly favored by renewable availability toward locations where recovered heat can be used in district heating, leading to greater use of hydrogen transmission infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis shows that higher district-heating shares moderately increase the value of heat recovery, while heat transport distance and hydrogen-cavern availability affect the strength of this effect. These findings show that hydrogen-related heat recovery can influence not only local heat utilization, but also technology competition, spatial siting, and infrastructure needs in sector-coupled energy-system planning.
Preprint
(2026)
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Christian Doh Dinga, F. Lombardi, Roald Arkesteij, Arjan van Voorden, Sander Van Rijn, Laurens De Vries, Milos Cvetkovic
District heating networks (DHNs) have significant potential to decarbonize residential heating and accelerate the energy transition. However, designing carbon-neutral DHNs requires balancing several objectives, including economic costs, social acceptance, long-term uncertainties, and grid-integration challenges from electrification. By combining modeling-to-generate-alternatives with power flow simulation techniques, we develop a decision-support method for designing carbon-neutral DHNs that are cost-effective, socially acceptable, robust to future risks, and impose minimal impacts on the electricity grid. Applying our method to a Dutch case, we find substantial diversity in how carbon-neutral DHNs can be designed. The flexibility in technology choice, sizing, and location enables accommodating different real-world needs and achieving high electrification levels without increasing grid loading. For instance, intelligently located heat pumps and thermal storage can limit grid stress even when renewable baseload heat sources and green-fuel boilers are scarce. Using our method, planners can explore diverse carbon-neutral DHN designs and identify the design that best balances stakeholders' preferences.
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District heating networks (DHNs) have significant potential to decarbonize residential heating and accelerate the energy transition. However, designing carbon-neutral DHNs requires balancing several objectives, including economic costs, social acceptance, long-term uncertainties, and grid-integration challenges from electrification. By combining modeling-to-generate-alternatives with power flow simulation techniques, we develop a decision-support method for designing carbon-neutral DHNs that are cost-effective, socially acceptable, robust to future risks, and impose minimal impacts on the electricity grid. Applying our method to a Dutch case, we find substantial diversity in how carbon-neutral DHNs can be designed. The flexibility in technology choice, sizing, and location enables accommodating different real-world needs and achieving high electrification levels without increasing grid loading. For instance, intelligently located heat pumps and thermal storage can limit grid stress even when renewable baseload heat sources and green-fuel boilers are scarce. Using our method, planners can explore diverse carbon-neutral DHN designs and identify the design that best balances stakeholders' preferences.
Pathways that describe the optimal evolution of energy systems across multiple decades are important in energy system research and policy literature, with net-zero and similar climate policies being common drivers behind them. While there are many studies on aspects such as spatial and operational resolution, model features, and model transparency, there has been little attention on the methodological considerations of formulating pathway studies in mathematical optimisation terms, and how these methods have evolved over time. To address this, we conduct a systematic review of optimal pathway literature at or above national level focusing on the following: i) the implications of model foresight choices, ii) end effects and related issues that may bias model outcomes, iii) trade-offs in model resolution, and iv) investment dynamics. We showcase how modellers have dealt with these aspects in a large sample of studies spanning multiple decades, and provide recommendations to both modellers and model users on identifying issues that can bias model results and how to improve upon them. In particular, we identify opportunities to better balance long-term anticipatory planning with high operational and spatial detail in models, and to improve the communication and systematic treatment of those mathematical design choices that potentially distort model decisions across time.
...
Pathways that describe the optimal evolution of energy systems across multiple decades are important in energy system research and policy literature, with net-zero and similar climate policies being common drivers behind them. While there are many studies on aspects such as spatial and operational resolution, model features, and model transparency, there has been little attention on the methodological considerations of formulating pathway studies in mathematical optimisation terms, and how these methods have evolved over time. To address this, we conduct a systematic review of optimal pathway literature at or above national level focusing on the following: i) the implications of model foresight choices, ii) end effects and related issues that may bias model outcomes, iii) trade-offs in model resolution, and iv) investment dynamics. We showcase how modellers have dealt with these aspects in a large sample of studies spanning multiple decades, and provide recommendations to both modellers and model users on identifying issues that can bias model results and how to improve upon them. In particular, we identify opportunities to better balance long-term anticipatory planning with high operational and spatial detail in models, and to improve the communication and systematic treatment of those mathematical design choices that potentially distort model decisions across time.
Energy system models are increasingly used to support the urgent task of planning for the energy transition. Over the last years, they have experienced constant improvements in spatial and temporal resolution, technical detail and open disclosure of code and data. Nonetheless, disagreement persists about their usefulness and real-world relevance. This is because modellers make strong but implicit assumptions on what is sensible to consider and what is not, do not sufficiently involve stakeholders in the modelling process, and pretend that the open release of large amounts of code and data automatically translates into practical understandability. Model users increasingly perceive such shortcomings. Thus, it is urgent to provide new perspectives on how to advance the energy modelling community. We propose three practical advancements. First, expanding the open-source concept to include open assumptions communicated via an explicit statement in each study. Second, coherently combining multiple models into a cosmos of modular, interoperable models instead of using one-size-fits-all individual models too large to be understood. Third, incorporating stakeholder knowledge across all phases of the modelling process in a co-creation approach. Although challenging, we argue that such advancements are essential to achieve the quality and real-world usefulness needed for energy system models to accelerate the energy transition.
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Energy system models are increasingly used to support the urgent task of planning for the energy transition. Over the last years, they have experienced constant improvements in spatial and temporal resolution, technical detail and open disclosure of code and data. Nonetheless, disagreement persists about their usefulness and real-world relevance. This is because modellers make strong but implicit assumptions on what is sensible to consider and what is not, do not sufficiently involve stakeholders in the modelling process, and pretend that the open release of large amounts of code and data automatically translates into practical understandability. Model users increasingly perceive such shortcomings. Thus, it is urgent to provide new perspectives on how to advance the energy modelling community. We propose three practical advancements. First, expanding the open-source concept to include open assumptions communicated via an explicit statement in each study. Second, coherently combining multiple models into a cosmos of modular, interoperable models instead of using one-size-fits-all individual models too large to be understood. Third, incorporating stakeholder knowledge across all phases of the modelling process in a co-creation approach. Although challenging, we argue that such advancements are essential to achieve the quality and real-world usefulness needed for energy system models to accelerate the energy transition.
Journal article
(2025)
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Bob van der Zwaan, Amir Fattahi, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Panagiotis Fragkos, Maria Kannavou, Theofano Fotiou, Giannis Tolios, Will Usher, Francesco Dalla Longa, Mark Dekker, Detlef van Vuuren, Robert Pietzcker, Renato Rodrigues, Felix Schreyer, Daniel Huppmann, Johannes Emmerling
Electricity- and hydrogen-based sector coupling contributes to realizing the transition towards greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system. Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, large amounts of renewable electricity and H2 need to be generated, mostly by scaling-up wind and solar energy production capacity. With a set of such models, under jointly adopted deep decarbonisation scenario assumptions, we here show that the ensuing direct penetration of electricity and H2 in final energy consumption may rise to average shares of around 60% and 6%, respectively, by 2050. We demonstrate that electrification proves the most cost-efficient decarbonisation route in all economic sectors, while the direct use of H2 in final energy consumption provides a relatively small, though essential, contribution to deep decarbonisation. We conclude that the variance observed across results from different models reflects the uncertainties that abound in the shape of deep decarbonisation pathways, in particular with regard to the role of H2.
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Electricity- and hydrogen-based sector coupling contributes to realizing the transition towards greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system. Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, large amounts of renewable electricity and H2 need to be generated, mostly by scaling-up wind and solar energy production capacity. With a set of such models, under jointly adopted deep decarbonisation scenario assumptions, we here show that the ensuing direct penetration of electricity and H2 in final energy consumption may rise to average shares of around 60% and 6%, respectively, by 2050. We demonstrate that electrification proves the most cost-efficient decarbonisation route in all economic sectors, while the direct use of H2 in final energy consumption provides a relatively small, though essential, contribution to deep decarbonisation. We conclude that the variance observed across results from different models reflects the uncertainties that abound in the shape of deep decarbonisation pathways, in particular with regard to the role of H2.
The optimal is not always the best
Life cycle impacts of near-optimal energy systems
Journal article
(2025)
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Alexander de Tomás-Pascual, Laura Pérez-Sánchez, Miquel Sierra-Montoya, Francesco Lombardi, Stefan Pfenninger-Lee, Inês Campos, Cristina Madrid-López
Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) can be used to guide long-term energy transitions but often overlook environmental impacts and the diversity of solutions close to the cost-optimal one. Here, we combine an ESOM using Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate 260 near-optimal and technologically diverse carbon-neutral energy system designs for Portugal in 2050 across five environmental indicators: climate change, land use, water use, ecotoxicity, and materials. Using the Calliope energy modelling framework and ENBIOS for environmental assessment, we find that system designs whose cost is within 10 % of the minimum feasible cost provide up to 50 % lower environmental impacts. Our results reveal a trade-off between technological diversity and environmental performance, showing that while diversity enhances resilience, this may come with a significant increase in environmental drawbacks. Solar photovoltaic and battery technologies dominate the environmental impacts, particularly in water consumption and critical material use. This study shows that traditional cost-optimal energy system designs may not be environmentally optimal. Exploring near-optimal alternatives reveals lower-impact solutions and supports more inclusive planning for energy transitions.
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Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) can be used to guide long-term energy transitions but often overlook environmental impacts and the diversity of solutions close to the cost-optimal one. Here, we combine an ESOM using Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate 260 near-optimal and technologically diverse carbon-neutral energy system designs for Portugal in 2050 across five environmental indicators: climate change, land use, water use, ecotoxicity, and materials. Using the Calliope energy modelling framework and ENBIOS for environmental assessment, we find that system designs whose cost is within 10 % of the minimum feasible cost provide up to 50 % lower environmental impacts. Our results reveal a trade-off between technological diversity and environmental performance, showing that while diversity enhances resilience, this may come with a significant increase in environmental drawbacks. Solar photovoltaic and battery technologies dominate the environmental impacts, particularly in water consumption and critical material use. This study shows that traditional cost-optimal energy system designs may not be environmentally optimal. Exploring near-optimal alternatives reveals lower-impact solutions and supports more inclusive planning for energy transitions.
The common use of cost minimisation to support energy system design decisions hides from view many economically comparable design options that stakeholders may prefer. Modelling to generate alternatives (MGA) is increasingly popular as a way to go beyond least-cost designs, providing stakeholders with diverse portfolios to appraise. However, generating all the feasible designs is not computationally viable; modellers must choose what design features to generate diversity around, despite not knowing which tradeoffs matter the most in practice. Therefore, MGA alone cannot ensure the generation of design options that match stakeholder needs. To address this shortcoming, we propose a human-in-the-loop (HITL) approach that automatically integrates stakeholder preferences into MGA. We elicit preferences by letting stakeholders interact with a tentative MGA design space. Hence, we decode those preferences to feed them back to the MGA algorithm and perform a guided search. This search produces a human-trained design space with more designs that mirror the elicited preferences. A synthetic experiment for the Portuguese energy system shows that HITL-MGA may facilitate consensus formation, promising to accelerate technically and socially feasible energy transition decisions.
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The common use of cost minimisation to support energy system design decisions hides from view many economically comparable design options that stakeholders may prefer. Modelling to generate alternatives (MGA) is increasingly popular as a way to go beyond least-cost designs, providing stakeholders with diverse portfolios to appraise. However, generating all the feasible designs is not computationally viable; modellers must choose what design features to generate diversity around, despite not knowing which tradeoffs matter the most in practice. Therefore, MGA alone cannot ensure the generation of design options that match stakeholder needs. To address this shortcoming, we propose a human-in-the-loop (HITL) approach that automatically integrates stakeholder preferences into MGA. We elicit preferences by letting stakeholders interact with a tentative MGA design space. Hence, we decode those preferences to feed them back to the MGA algorithm and perform a guided search. This search produces a human-trained design space with more designs that mirror the elicited preferences. A synthetic experiment for the Portuguese energy system shows that HITL-MGA may facilitate consensus formation, promising to accelerate technically and socially feasible energy transition decisions.
Journal article
(2025)
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Francesco Lombardi, Koen van Greevenbroek, Aleksander Grochowicz, Michael Lau, Fabian Neumann, Neha Patankar, Oskar Vågerö
Cost-optimizing energy planning models are widespread in supporting energy transition planning decisions. Nonetheless, finding a “cost-optimal” planning strategy provides only a false sense of certainty. Stakeholders may prefer other economically comparable alternatives due to unaccounted-for features. Multi-objective or robust optimization, among others, can efficiently explore alternatives whose desired secondary features are well defined. “Modeling to generate alternatives” (MGA) explores alternatives systematically, including alternatives whose features, such as social viability, are hard to model, albeit key to practical implementation. Computational and interpretation barriers hindered past MGA usage and integration with other methods, but recent developments enable going beyond such barriers. We synthesize such developments and provide practical recommendations for applying MGA in five levels of increasing benefit. Even the simplest levels, requiring little computational effort, can substantially improve the quality of energy planning analyses. At the highest level of integration, MGA can facilitate identifying consensus strategies, accelerating the energy transition.
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Cost-optimizing energy planning models are widespread in supporting energy transition planning decisions. Nonetheless, finding a “cost-optimal” planning strategy provides only a false sense of certainty. Stakeholders may prefer other economically comparable alternatives due to unaccounted-for features. Multi-objective or robust optimization, among others, can efficiently explore alternatives whose desired secondary features are well defined. “Modeling to generate alternatives” (MGA) explores alternatives systematically, including alternatives whose features, such as social viability, are hard to model, albeit key to practical implementation. Computational and interpretation barriers hindered past MGA usage and integration with other methods, but recent developments enable going beyond such barriers. We synthesize such developments and provide practical recommendations for applying MGA in five levels of increasing benefit. Even the simplest levels, requiring little computational effort, can substantially improve the quality of energy planning analyses. At the highest level of integration, MGA can facilitate identifying consensus strategies, accelerating the energy transition.
Novel wind technologies, in particular airborne wind energy (AWE) and floating offshore wind turbines, have the potential to unlock untapped wind resources and contribute to power system stability in unique ways. So far, the techno-economic potential of both technologies has only been investigated at a small scale, whereas the most significant benefits will likely play out on a system scale. Given the urgency of the energy transition, the possible contribution of these novel technologies should be addressed. Therefore, we investigate the main system-level trade-offs in integrating AWE systems and floating wind turbines into a highly renewable future energy system. To do so, we develop a modelling workflow that integrates wind resource assessment and future cost and performance estimations into a large-scale energy system model, which finds cost-optimal system designs that are operationally feasible with hourly temporal resolution across ten countries in the North Sea region. Acknowledging the uncertainty on AWE systems' future costs and performance and floating wind turbines, we examine a broad range of cost and technology development scenarios and identify which insights are consistent across different possible futures. We find that onshore AWE outperforms conventional onshore wind regarding system-wide benefits due to higher wind resource availability and distinctive hourly generation profiles, which are sometimes complementary to conventional onshore turbines. The achievable power density per ground surface area is the main limiting factor in large-scale onshore AWE deployment. Offshore AWE, in contrast, provides system benefits similar to those of offshore wind alternatives. Therefore, deployment is primarily driven by cost competitiveness. Floating wind turbines achieve higher performance than conventional wind turbines, so they can cost more and remain competitive. AWE, in particular, might be able to play a significant role in a climate-neutral European energy supply and thus warrants further study.
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Novel wind technologies, in particular airborne wind energy (AWE) and floating offshore wind turbines, have the potential to unlock untapped wind resources and contribute to power system stability in unique ways. So far, the techno-economic potential of both technologies has only been investigated at a small scale, whereas the most significant benefits will likely play out on a system scale. Given the urgency of the energy transition, the possible contribution of these novel technologies should be addressed. Therefore, we investigate the main system-level trade-offs in integrating AWE systems and floating wind turbines into a highly renewable future energy system. To do so, we develop a modelling workflow that integrates wind resource assessment and future cost and performance estimations into a large-scale energy system model, which finds cost-optimal system designs that are operationally feasible with hourly temporal resolution across ten countries in the North Sea region. Acknowledging the uncertainty on AWE systems' future costs and performance and floating wind turbines, we examine a broad range of cost and technology development scenarios and identify which insights are consistent across different possible futures. We find that onshore AWE outperforms conventional onshore wind regarding system-wide benefits due to higher wind resource availability and distinctive hourly generation profiles, which are sometimes complementary to conventional onshore turbines. The achievable power density per ground surface area is the main limiting factor in large-scale onshore AWE deployment. Offshore AWE, in contrast, provides system benefits similar to those of offshore wind alternatives. Therefore, deployment is primarily driven by cost competitiveness. Floating wind turbines achieve higher performance than conventional wind turbines, so they can cost more and remain competitive. AWE, in particular, might be able to play a significant role in a climate-neutral European energy supply and thus warrants further study.
Journal article
(2024)
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J.K.A. Langer, F. Lombardi, Stefan Pfenninger, Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Muhammad Indra Al Irsyad, K. Blok
Indonesia has large renewable energy resources that are not always located in regions where they are needed. Sub-sea power transmission cables, or island links, could connect Indonesia's high-demand islands, like Java, to large-resource islands. However, the role of island links in Indonesia's energy transition has been explored in a limited fashion. Considering Indonesia's current fossil fuel dependency, this is a critical knowledge gap. Here we assess the role of island links in Indonesia's full power sector decarbonisation via energy system optimisation modelling and an extensive scenario and sensitivity analysis. We find that island links could be crucial by providing access to the most cost-effective resources across the country, like onshore photovoltaics (PV) and hydropower from Kalimantan and geothermal from Sumatera. In 2050, 43 GW of inter-island transmission lines enable 410 GWp of PV providing half of total generation, coupled with 100 GW of storage, at levelised system costs of 60 US$(2021)/MWh. Without island links, Java could still be supplied locally, but at 15% higher costs due to larger offshore floating PV and storage capacity requirements. Regardless of the degree of interconnection, biomass, large hydro, and geothermal remain important dispatchable generators with at least 62 GW and 23% of total generation throughout all tested scenarios. Full decarbonisation by 2040 mitigates an additional 464 MtCO2e compared to decarbonisation by 2050, but poses more challenges for renewables upscaling and fossil capacity retirement.
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Indonesia has large renewable energy resources that are not always located in regions where they are needed. Sub-sea power transmission cables, or island links, could connect Indonesia's high-demand islands, like Java, to large-resource islands. However, the role of island links in Indonesia's energy transition has been explored in a limited fashion. Considering Indonesia's current fossil fuel dependency, this is a critical knowledge gap. Here we assess the role of island links in Indonesia's full power sector decarbonisation via energy system optimisation modelling and an extensive scenario and sensitivity analysis. We find that island links could be crucial by providing access to the most cost-effective resources across the country, like onshore photovoltaics (PV) and hydropower from Kalimantan and geothermal from Sumatera. In 2050, 43 GW of inter-island transmission lines enable 410 GWp of PV providing half of total generation, coupled with 100 GW of storage, at levelised system costs of 60 US$(2021)/MWh. Without island links, Java could still be supplied locally, but at 15% higher costs due to larger offshore floating PV and storage capacity requirements. Regardless of the degree of interconnection, biomass, large hydro, and geothermal remain important dispatchable generators with at least 62 GW and 23% of total generation throughout all tested scenarios. Full decarbonisation by 2040 mitigates an additional 464 MtCO2e compared to decarbonisation by 2050, but poses more challenges for renewables upscaling and fossil capacity retirement.
Comparing energy system optimization models and integrated assessment models
Relevance for energy policy advice
Journal article
(2024)
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Hauke Henke, Mark Dekker, Francesco Dalla Longa, Igor Tatarewicz, Theofano Fotiou, Michał Lewarski, Daniel Huppmann, Kostas Kavvadias, Bob van der Zwaan, Will Usher, Francesco Lombardi, Robert Pietzcker, Panagiotis Fragkos, Behnam Zakeri, Renato Rodrigues, Joanna Sitarz, Johannes Emmerling, Amir Fattahi
Background: The transition to a climate neutral society such as that envisaged in the European Union Green Deal requires careful and comprehensive planning. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are both commonly used for policy advice and in the process of policy design. In Europe, a vast landscape of these models has emerged and both kinds of models have been part of numerous model comparison and model linking exercises. However, IAMs and ESOMs have rarely been compared or linked with one another. Methods: This study conducts an explorative comparison and identifies possible flows of information between 11 of the integrated assessment and energy system models in the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. The study identifies and compares regional aggregations and commonly reported variables. We define harmonised regions and a subset of shared result variables that enable the comparison of scenario results across the models. Results: The results highlight how power generation and demand development are related and driven by regional and sectoral drivers. They also show that demand developments like for hydrogen can be linked with power generation potentials such as onshore wind power. Lastly, the results show that the role of nuclear power is related to the availability of wind resources. Conclusions: This comparison and analysis of modelling results across model type boundaries provides modellers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to interpret both IAM and ESOM results. It also highlights the need for community standards for region definitions and information about reported variables to facilitate future comparisons of this kind. The comparison shows that regional aggregations might conceal differences within regions that are potentially of interest for national policy makers thereby indicating a need for national-level analysis.
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Background: The transition to a climate neutral society such as that envisaged in the European Union Green Deal requires careful and comprehensive planning. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are both commonly used for policy advice and in the process of policy design. In Europe, a vast landscape of these models has emerged and both kinds of models have been part of numerous model comparison and model linking exercises. However, IAMs and ESOMs have rarely been compared or linked with one another. Methods: This study conducts an explorative comparison and identifies possible flows of information between 11 of the integrated assessment and energy system models in the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. The study identifies and compares regional aggregations and commonly reported variables. We define harmonised regions and a subset of shared result variables that enable the comparison of scenario results across the models. Results: The results highlight how power generation and demand development are related and driven by regional and sectoral drivers. They also show that demand developments like for hydrogen can be linked with power generation potentials such as onshore wind power. Lastly, the results show that the role of nuclear power is related to the availability of wind resources. Conclusions: This comparison and analysis of modelling results across model type boundaries provides modellers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to interpret both IAM and ESOM results. It also highlights the need for community standards for region definitions and information about reported variables to facilitate future comparisons of this kind. The comparison shows that regional aggregations might conceal differences within regions that are potentially of interest for national policy makers thereby indicating a need for national-level analysis.
Journal article
(2024)
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F. Lombardi, Pierre-François Duc, Gokarna Dhungel, Sylvain Quoilin, Mohammad Amin Tahavori, Claudia Sanchez-Solis, Sarah Eckhoff, Maria C. G. Hart, F.D. Sanvito, Gregory Ireland, Sergio Balderrama, Johann Kraft
Journal article
(2024)
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Inês Campos, Miguel Brito, Stefan Pfenninger-Lee, Luís M. Fazendeiro, Guilherme Pontes Luz, Francesco Lombardi, Aías Lima, Cristina Madrid-López
Energy transition policies can be translated into narratives about how energy systems should change (e.g., towards a centralised or decentralised system). These narratives tend to reflect expectations, priorities, and perceptions on feasibility and the social acceptability of different policy options, as well as long-term goals and trade-offs, all of which influence policy criteria. Taking as its case study Portugal and the implementation of European directives there, this study aims to characterise energy transition narratives (e.g. a swift transformation to renewables) and interrelated policy criteria (e.g., participation of local communities), focusing on expectations for a socially engaging and democratic energy transition. The analysis builds on the results of a Delphi survey with 10 expert stakeholders, a citizens’ survey (n=500), and a workshop with 19 participants. It identifies the most relevant criteria to stakeholders, as well as the importance of different underlying expectations, meanings, and attitudes shaping narratives about energy system futures. The findings indicate that criteria interrelated to narratives which highlight a promise of democratic energy governance may be less important for energy transition policies, and therefore undermine energy democracy goals. The conclusion highlights suggestions for policy and future research more likely to foster sociopolitical acceptance.
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Energy transition policies can be translated into narratives about how energy systems should change (e.g., towards a centralised or decentralised system). These narratives tend to reflect expectations, priorities, and perceptions on feasibility and the social acceptability of different policy options, as well as long-term goals and trade-offs, all of which influence policy criteria. Taking as its case study Portugal and the implementation of European directives there, this study aims to characterise energy transition narratives (e.g. a swift transformation to renewables) and interrelated policy criteria (e.g., participation of local communities), focusing on expectations for a socially engaging and democratic energy transition. The analysis builds on the results of a Delphi survey with 10 expert stakeholders, a citizens’ survey (n=500), and a workshop with 19 participants. It identifies the most relevant criteria to stakeholders, as well as the importance of different underlying expectations, meanings, and attitudes shaping narratives about energy system futures. The findings indicate that criteria interrelated to narratives which highlight a promise of democratic energy governance may be less important for energy transition policies, and therefore undermine energy democracy goals. The conclusion highlights suggestions for policy and future research more likely to foster sociopolitical acceptance.
Journal article
(2023)
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Mark M. Dekker, Vassilis Daioglou, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Ema Gusheva, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Maria Kannavou, Volker Krey, Francesco Lombardi, Gunnar Luderer, Stefan Pfenninger, Robert Pietzcker, Ioannis Tsiropoulos, Behnam Zakeri, Bob van der Zwaan, Will Usher, Detlef van Vuuren, Renato Rodrigues, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Francesco Dalla Longa, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Amir Fattahi, Theofano Fotiou
Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.
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Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.
Given the urgent need to devise credible, deep strategies for carbon neutrality, approaches for ‘modelling to generate alternatives’ (MGA) are gaining popularity in the energy sector. Yet, MGA faces limitations when applied to state-of-the-art energy system models: the number of alternatives that can be generated is virtually infinite; no realistic computational effort can discover the complete technology and spatial option space. Here, based on our own SPORES method, a highly customisable and spatially-explicit advancement of MGA, we empirically test different search strategies – including some adapted from other MGA approaches – with the aim of identifying how to minimise redundant computation. With application to a model of the European power system, we show that, for a fixed number of generated alternatives, there is a clear trade-off in making use of the available computational power to unveil technology versus spatial dissimilarity across alternative system configurations. Moreover, we show that focussing on technology dissimilarity may fail to identify system configurations that appeal to real-world stakeholders, such as those in which capacity is more spread out at the local scale. Based on this evidence that no feasible alternative can be deemed redundant a priori, we propose to initially search for options in a way that balances spatial and technology dissimilarity; this can be achieved by combining the strengths of two different strategies. The resulting solution space can then be refined based on the feedback of stakeholders. More generally, we propose the adoption of ad-hoc MGA sensitivity analyses, targeted at testing a study's central claims, as a computationally inexpensive standard to improve the quality of energy modelling analyses.
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Given the urgent need to devise credible, deep strategies for carbon neutrality, approaches for ‘modelling to generate alternatives’ (MGA) are gaining popularity in the energy sector. Yet, MGA faces limitations when applied to state-of-the-art energy system models: the number of alternatives that can be generated is virtually infinite; no realistic computational effort can discover the complete technology and spatial option space. Here, based on our own SPORES method, a highly customisable and spatially-explicit advancement of MGA, we empirically test different search strategies – including some adapted from other MGA approaches – with the aim of identifying how to minimise redundant computation. With application to a model of the European power system, we show that, for a fixed number of generated alternatives, there is a clear trade-off in making use of the available computational power to unveil technology versus spatial dissimilarity across alternative system configurations. Moreover, we show that focussing on technology dissimilarity may fail to identify system configurations that appeal to real-world stakeholders, such as those in which capacity is more spread out at the local scale. Based on this evidence that no feasible alternative can be deemed redundant a priori, we propose to initially search for options in a way that balances spatial and technology dissimilarity; this can be achieved by combining the strengths of two different strategies. The resulting solution space can then be refined based on the feedback of stakeholders. More generally, we propose the adoption of ad-hoc MGA sensitivity analyses, targeted at testing a study's central claims, as a computationally inexpensive standard to improve the quality of energy modelling analyses.
Abstract
(2023)
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Diana Süsser, Connor McGookin, Will McDowall, Francesco Lombardi, Lukas Braunreiter, Stefan Bouzarovski
A notable inclusion in the most recent mitigation assessment from the IPCC was the need for a broader societal transformation to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in a fair and equitable manner. Energy system models are becoming increasingly important in politics when it comes to informing the energy transition towards climate neutrality. Even though these tools have become very powerful, their ability to map real-world behavioural, social and political developments is limited. This can lead to neglecting important aspects of fairness and inclusion as well as behavioural change measures in politics and policies, making it (almost) impossible to keep up with the goal of leaving no one and no region behind in the transition. In this talk, we argue that it is time to rethink energy system models through the lenses of a just transition. An integrated and complementary energy modelling and social science and humanities research approach is crucial to enable fair and equitable climate neutrality pathways. Political decisions would benefit from insights not only based on modelled techno-economic pathways and scenarios of the energy transition, but also on the findings of discussions and debates with the many stakeholders involved or impacted. This is particularly important as cost optimisation ignores existing injustices, there will be geographically dispersed winners and losers in the energy transition, and the transition process can offer different socio-economic benefits for broader regional transitions. In this talk, we will discuss limitation of current modelling approaches and provide policy recommendations to broaden the evidence base to include inter- and transdisciplinary research as well as the learnings from implementation projects. The policy recommendations are based on findings and experiences from stakeholder engagement in modelling from different European research projects, including SENTINEL, SONNET, SEEDS and JustWind4All.
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A notable inclusion in the most recent mitigation assessment from the IPCC was the need for a broader societal transformation to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in a fair and equitable manner. Energy system models are becoming increasingly important in politics when it comes to informing the energy transition towards climate neutrality. Even though these tools have become very powerful, their ability to map real-world behavioural, social and political developments is limited. This can lead to neglecting important aspects of fairness and inclusion as well as behavioural change measures in politics and policies, making it (almost) impossible to keep up with the goal of leaving no one and no region behind in the transition. In this talk, we argue that it is time to rethink energy system models through the lenses of a just transition. An integrated and complementary energy modelling and social science and humanities research approach is crucial to enable fair and equitable climate neutrality pathways. Political decisions would benefit from insights not only based on modelled techno-economic pathways and scenarios of the energy transition, but also on the findings of discussions and debates with the many stakeholders involved or impacted. This is particularly important as cost optimisation ignores existing injustices, there will be geographically dispersed winners and losers in the energy transition, and the transition process can offer different socio-economic benefits for broader regional transitions. In this talk, we will discuss limitation of current modelling approaches and provide policy recommendations to broaden the evidence base to include inter- and transdisciplinary research as well as the learnings from implementation projects. The policy recommendations are based on findings and experiences from stakeholder engagement in modelling from different European research projects, including SENTINEL, SONNET, SEEDS and JustWind4All.
Disagreements persist on how to design a self-sufficient, carbon-neutral European energy system. To explore the diversity of design options, we develop a high-resolution model of the entire European energy system and produce 441 technically feasible system designs that are within 10% of the optimal economic cost. We show that a wide range of systems based on renewable energy are feasible, with no need to import energy from outside Europe. Model solutions reveal considerable flexibility in the choice and geographical distribution of new infrastructure across the continent. Balanced renewable energy supply can be achieved either with or without mechanisms such as biofuel use, curtailment, and expansion of the electricity network. Trade-offs emerge once specific preferences are imposed. Low biofuel use, for example, requires heat electrification and controlled vehicle charging. This exploration of the impact of preferences on system design options is vital to inform urgent, politically difficult decisions for eliminating fossil fuel imports and achieving European carbon neutrality.
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Disagreements persist on how to design a self-sufficient, carbon-neutral European energy system. To explore the diversity of design options, we develop a high-resolution model of the entire European energy system and produce 441 technically feasible system designs that are within 10% of the optimal economic cost. We show that a wide range of systems based on renewable energy are feasible, with no need to import energy from outside Europe. Model solutions reveal considerable flexibility in the choice and geographical distribution of new infrastructure across the continent. Balanced renewable energy supply can be achieved either with or without mechanisms such as biofuel use, curtailment, and expansion of the electricity network. Trade-offs emerge once specific preferences are imposed. Low biofuel use, for example, requires heat electrification and controlled vehicle charging. This exploration of the impact of preferences on system design options is vital to inform urgent, politically difficult decisions for eliminating fossil fuel imports and achieving European carbon neutrality.