The decarbonisation of electricity supply through variable renewable energy (VRE) is causing increasing congestion in electricity transmission and distribution grids. Redispatching after the closure of the day ahead market has been the most common congestion management instrument. A key challenge for congestion management via redispatching is the growing scarcity of upward reserves for counter activation, as synchronously connected assets are often out of merit order during periods of high VRE output. To proactively manage congestion before the day-ahead market closes, the Netherlands introduced the dispatch limitation product (DLP) in 2022. Since its introduction, the DLP has been widely contracted and used. Furthermore, starting in 2025, Flexible Connection Agreements (FCA) will be introduced, providing additional mechanisms for congestion management. This paper presents key lessons from the Dutch experience with congestion management in the day-ahead timeframe, analysing the effectiveness of these new instruments and their impact on grid flexibility and market efficiency.

To optimize the dispatch of batteries, a model is required that can predict the state of energy (SOE) trajectory for a chosen open-loop power schedule to ensure admissibility (i.e., that schedule can be realized). However, battery dispatch optimization is inherently challenging when batteries cannot simultaneously charge and discharge, which begets a non-convex complementarity constraint. In this letter, we develop a novel composition of energy storage elements that can charge or discharge independently and provide a sufficient linear energy storage model of the composite battery. This permits convex optimization of the composite battery dispatch while ensuring the admissibility of the resulting (aggregated) power schedule and its disaggregation to the individual elements.

Probabilistic forecasting in power systems often involves multi-entity datasets like households, feeders, and wind turbines, where generating reliable entity-specific forecasts presents significant challenges. Traditional approaches require training individual models for each entity, making them inefficient and hard to scale. This study addresses this problem using GUIDE-VAE, a conditional variational autoencoder that allows entity-specific probabilistic forecasting using a single model. GUIDE-VAE provides flexible outputs, ranging from interpretable point estimates to full probability distributions, thanks to its advanced covariance composition structure. These distributions capture uncertainty and temporal dependencies, offering richer insights than traditional methods. To evaluate our GUIDE-VAE-based forecaster, we use household electricity consumption data as a case study due to its multi-entity and highly stochastic nature. Experimental results demonstrate that GUIDE-VAE outperforms conventional quantile regression techniques across key metrics while ensuring scalability and versatility. These features make GUIDE-VAE a powerful and generalizable tool for probabilistic forecasting tasks, with potential applications beyond household electricity consumption.

Because the energy transition is a critical and urgent issue that is increasingly reliant on data, the Center for Energy System Intelligence (CESI), a Convergence collaboration between TU Delft and Erasmus University Rotterdam, has developed a platform where researchers on the energy transition can share, publish, and/or find energy-related datasets and algorithms: EnergySHR. This platform aims to accelerate energy transition research into intelligent, data-driven algorithms. In this demonstration, we present the EnergySHR platform as both a platform for storing, accessing, managing, and archiving datasets as well as a tool to conduct empirical research about platformization and data-driven decision-making about the energy transition.

The sudden proliferation of Electric Vehicles (EVs), batteries and photovoltaic cells in power networks can lead to congested distribution networks. A substitute for upgrading network capacity is a redispatch market that enables the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to mitigate congested networks by requesting the energy consumers to modify their consumption schedules. However, energy consumers are able to strategically modify their day-ahead market bids in anticipation of the redispatch market outcomes. This behaviour, which is known as increase-decrease gaming, can exacerbate congestion and give arbitrage opportunities to the energy consumers for gaining windfall profits from the DSO. In this paper, we propose an algorithm based on mean-field Stackelberg game to mitigate the increase-decrease game for large populations of energy consumers. In this game, the energy consumers (followers) maximize their individual welfare on the day-ahead market with anticipation of the redispatch market outcomes while the leader maximizes the social welfare of all agents and minimizes the costs of DSO on the redispatch market. We show the convergence of this algorithm to the mean-field leader-follower εN-Nash equilibrium.

Increased electrification of energy end-usage can lead to network congestion during periods of high consumption. Flexibility of loads, such as aggregate smart charging of Electric Vehicles (EVs), is increasingly leveraged to manage grid congestion through various market-based mechanisms. Under such an arrangement, this paper quantifies the effect of lead time on the aggregate flexibility of EV fleets. Simulations using realworld charging transactions spanning over different categories of charging stations are performed for two flexibility products (redispatch and capacity limitations) when offered along with different business-as-usual (BAU) schedules. Results show that the variation of tradable flexibility depends mainly on the BAU schedules, the duration of the requested flexibility, and its start time. Further, the implication of these flexibility products on the average energy costs and emissions is also studied for different cases. Simulations show that bidirectional (V2G) charging outperforms unidirectional smart charging in all cases.

The electrification of end-energy use and the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) are significantly reshaping the landscape of low voltage (LV) distribution grids. However, many LV networks were originally designed without considering these transformative factors, potentially leading to congestion and overloads. Assessing the hosting capacity of these networks has become crucial, as it quantifies the ability of the distribution network to accommodate additional DERs while maintaining stable and reliable operations. In this context, we introduce the concept of remaining hosting capacity as a metric to evaluate LV distribution networks' capacity to absorb additional DERs, considering the existing DER deployment. We present two simulation methodologies: Gaussian mixture model-based stochastic power flow simulations that deliver a detailed network analysis, including specific current and voltage data but require substantial computational resources, and a data resampling simulation methodology that employs detailed load and DER profiles to rapidly approximate load demands at the transformer level. Furthermore, we conduct a sensitivity analysis for different levels of DER penetration to calculate the networks' capability to accommodate more DERs. The results obtained illustrate the effectiveness of GM models and the data resampling simulation methodology proposed in this work. The remaining hosting capacity concept provides essential insights into the networks' capabilities to accommodate additional DERs in the future, facilitating informed decisions for both Distribution System Operators (DSOs) and DER developers regarding grid operation, necessary upgrades, and sustainable DER expansion.

Congestion is one of the major system risks for transmission system operators. At the same time, topological remedial actions still represent a largely unexploited form of non-costly exibility due to the combinatorial explosion in the number of possible actions. The GridOptions Tool recommends to operators topological remedial actions to mitigate congestion in the day-ahead/intraday timeframe. The underlying optimization approach is based on two pillars: (i) very fast load ow computations enable screening of the full set of relevant topologies, and (ii) multi-objective quality-diversity optimization enables the generation of a set of strategies which satisfy different trade-offs between various objectives and are behaviourally diverse. The considered objectives are related to both physical security constraints and the complexity of the strategies. As a result, the tool generates topological strategies that are a signi cant improvement compared to both the situation in which no topological remedial actions are applied and the known operator strategies. Moreover, the GridOptions Tool offers a simple user interface which is developed in interaction with operators to satisfy their cognitive needs. Finally, the GridOptions Tool is largely based on open-source tooling, and all components can run as a Docker container on a Kubernetes platform.

Anomaly detection is of considerable significance in engineering applications, such as the monitoring and control of large-scale energy systems. This article investigates the ability to accurately detect and localize the source of anomalies, using an autoencoder neural network-based detector. Correlations between residuals are identified as a source of misclassifications, and whitening transformations that decorrelate input features and/or residuals are analyzed as a potential solution. For two use cases, regarding spatially distributed wind power generation and temporal profiles of electricity consumption, the performance of various data processing combinations was quantified. Whitening of the input data was found to be most beneficial for accurate detection, with a slight benefit for the combined whitening of inputs and residuals. For localization of anomalies, whitening of residuals was preferred, and the best performance was obtained using standardization of the input data and whitening of the residuals using the zero-phase component analysis (ZCA) or zero-phase component analysis-correlation (ZCA-cor) whitening matrix with a small additional offset.

Electrification of energy end-uses brings an increasing load on electric distribution grids with load peaks that can cause network congestion. However, many new end-uses like electric vehicles, heat pumps, and electrified industrial processes have some flexibility to move their power consumption away from peak times. Congestion management mechanisms can harness this flexibility. This paper investigates congestion management mechanisms based on limited available network capacity for flexible loads during peak times. A case study discusses and investigates real-world examples of such mechanisms from proposals in Germany and the Netherlands. They differ concerning the lead time at which the capacity limitation is announced, with options from near real-time and day-ahead to long-term. These mechanisms are suited to remove network congestion, but there are significant trade-offs concerning the lead time. A shorter lead time leaves more room for using the network during non-congested times but creates a risk of curtailment for end-users, which may come with associated balancing and re-procurement costs. Longer lead times give more certainty on network access conditions but often restrict network usage even when there is no network congestion.

Quantitative risk analysis is essential for power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo methods are frequently employed for this purpose, but their inherent sampling uncertainty means that accurate estimation of this uncertainty is essential. Basic Monte Carlo procedures are unbiased and, in the limit of large sample counts, have a well-characterised error distribution. However, for small time budgets and ill-behaved distributions (such as those for rare event risks), we may not always operate in this limit. Moreover, multilevel Monte Carlo was recently proposed as a computationally efficient alternative to regular Monte Carlo. In this approach, great asymptotic speedups are achieved by reducing the number of full model evaluations. This further challenges the assumption that normally distributed errors can be used. This paper investigates the sampling error distributions for a practical resource adequacy case study, in combination with the Multilevel Monte Carlo method. It further proposes a practical test for validating error estimates, based on a bootstrap approach.

Aggregation is crucial to the effective use of flexibility, especially in the case of electric vehicles (EVs) because of their limited individual battery sizes and large aggregate impact. This research proposes a novel method to quantify and represent the aggregate charging flexibility of EV fleets within a fixed flexibility request window. These windows can be chosen based on relevant network operator needs, such as evening congestion periods. The proposed representation is independent of the number of assets but scales only with the number of discrete time steps in the chosen window. The representation involves 2T parameters, with T being the number of consecutive time steps in the window. The feasibility of aggregate power signals can be checked using 2T constraints and optimized using 2(2^T−1) constraints, both exactly capturing the flexibility region. Using a request window eliminates uncertainty related to EV arrival and departure times outside the window. We present the necessary theoretical framework for our proposed methods and outline steps for transitioning between representations. Additionally, we compare the computational efficiency of the proposed method with the common direct aggregation method, where individual EV constraints are concatenated.

Smart charging of electric vehicles can alleviate grid congestion and reduce charging costs. However, various electric vehicle models currently lack the technical capabilities to effectively implement smart charging since they cannot handle charging pauses or delays. These models enter sleep mode when charging is interrupted, preventing resumption afterwards. To avoid this, they should be continuously charged with their minimum charging power, even when a charging pause would be desirable, for instance with high electricity prices. This research examines this problem to inform various stakeholders, including policymakers and manufacturers, and stimulates the adoption of proactive measures that address this problem. Here, we demonstrate through technical charging tests that around one-third of tested car models suffer from this issue. Through model simulations we indicate that eliminating paused and delayed charging problems would double the smart charging potential for all applications. Lastly, we propose concrete legal and practical solutions to eliminate these problems.

Probabilistic modelling of power systems operation and planning processes depends on data-driven methods, which require sufficiently large datasets. When historical data lacks this, it is desired to model the underlying data generation mechanism as a probability distribution to assess the data quality and generate more data, if needed. Kernel density estimation (KDE) based models are popular choices for this task, but they fail to adapt to data regions with varying densities. In this paper, an adaptive KDE model is employed to circumvent this, where each kernel in the model has an individual bandwidth. The leave-one-out maximum log-likelihood (LOO-MLL) criterion is proposed to prevent the singular solutions that the regular MLL criterion gives rise to, and it is proven that LOO-MLL prevents these. Relying on this guaranteed robustness, the model is extended by adjustable weights for the kernels. In addition, a modified expectation–maximization algorithm is employed to accelerate the optimization speed reliably. The performance of the proposed method and models are exhibited on two power systems datasets using different statistical tests and by comparison with Gaussian mixture models. Results show that the proposed models have promising performance, in addition to their singularity prevention guarantees.

Aggregate peak Electric Vehicle (EV) charging demand is a matter of growing concern for network operators as it severely limits the network's capacity, preventing its reliable operation. Various tariff schemes have been proposed to limit peak demand by incentivizing flexible asset users to shift their demand from peak periods. However, fewer studies quantify the effect of these tariff schemes on the aggregate level. In this paper, we compare the effect of a multi-level segmented network tariff with and without dynamic energy prices for individual EV users on the aggregate peak demand. Results based on real charging transactions from over 1200 public charging points in the Netherlands show that the segmented network tariff with flat energy prices results in more diverse load profiles with increasing aggregation, as compared to cost-optimized dispatch based on only dynamic day-ahead energy prices. When paired with dynamic energy prices, the segmented tariff still outperforms only dynamic energy price-based tariffs in reducing peaks. Results show that a balance between power thresholds and price per threshold is crucial in designing a suitable tariff, taking into account the needs of the power network. We also provide valuable insights to network operators by calculating the diversity factor for various peak demands per charging point.

Electric demand and renewable power are highly variable, and the solution of a planning model relies on capturing this variability. This paper proposes a hybrid multi-area method that effectively captures both the intraday and interday chronology of real data considering extreme values, using a limited number of representative days, and time points within each day. An optimization-based representative extraction method is proposed to improve intraday chronology capturing. It ensures higher precision in preserving data chronology and extreme values than hierarchical clustering methods. The proposed method is based on a piecewise linear demand and supply representation, which reduces approximation errors compared to the traditional piecewise constant formulation. Additionally, sequentially linked day blocks with identical representatives, created through a mapping process, are employed for interday chronology capturing. To evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method, a comprehensive expansion co-planning model is developed, including transmission lines, energy storage systems, and wind farms.

The proliferation of batteries, photovoltaic cells and Electric Vehicles (EVs) in electric power networks can result in network congestion. A redispatch market that allows the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to relieve congested networks by asking the energy consumers to adjust their scheduled consumption is an alternative to upgrading network capacity. However, energy consumers can strategically increase their bids on the day-ahead market in anticipation of payouts from the redispatch market. This behaviour, which is called increase-decrease gaming, can aggravate congestion and allow the energy consumers to extract windfall profits from the DSO. In this paper, we model the increase-decrease game for large populations of energy consumers in power networks using a mean field game approach. The agents (energy consumers) maximize their individual welfare on the day-ahead market with anticipation of the redispatch market, coupled via the electricity price. We show that there exists a Nash equilibrium for this game and use an algorithm that converges to the Nash equilibrium for the infinite population case.

This paper proposes a multi-level segmented tariff to encourage consumers to provide demand response using a battery. The aim of the tariff is to (i) properly reflect consumers’ contribution to the distribution grid cost while ensuring cost recovery for the distribution network operator and (ii) to provide consumers with a financial incentive to flatten their load profile and avoid peak demand. An optimization problem is formulated to describe how consumers can provide demand response by managing their batteries. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed multi-level segmented tariff, four case studies were conducted. The results indicate that the multi-level segmented tariff is the most effective in reducing coincident peak demand, with a reduction of 22%. Policymakers and regulators are recommended to consider multi-level segmented distribution tariffs, as it provides an incentive to consumers to manage their assets to provide demand response.

Electrical faults in the distribution system can lead to interruptions in customer power supply resulting in penalties that are borne by the distribution system operator. Accurate fault classification is an important step in locating the fault to achieve faster network restoration times. This paper presents a classification model in two parts: one determines the degree of stability in the fault waveforms and the second uses a machine learning model to classify real-world faults based on the number of fault phases. A set of business rules are developed to characterise instability by performing a windowed Fourier analysis and studying the strength of the fundamental frequency component of fault waveforms. Results show that the developed SVM model can differentiate between real-world instances of single-phase, two-phase and threephase stable faults with a classification accuracy of 95%. Additionally, we show that adding a small subset of synthetically developed faults to the training data improves classification accuracy.