Following the Paris Agreement of 2015, Indonesia aims to reduce emissions by 29% by 2030, compared to the business as usual scenario. In Indonesia it is expected that between 2015 and 2030 the electricity demand could triple and the total energy demand could increase by 80%. Bioenergy would account for more than half of all renewable energy in 2030 in Indonesia. However, the expansion of energy crops contributes to negative effects like deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and competition with food production. An other problem Indonesia currently deals with is the large amount of degraded land. A solution to these problems would be to cultivate biomass on degraded land. Bamboo can be used as a biomass feedstock, as it meets all selection requirements to be produced on degraded land. This thesis report quantifies the extent and finds the location of degraded land in Indonesia. Also, the technical and economic potential of bamboo cultivation on the degraded land locations is assessed. The research question that will be answered is: how much degraded land would be needed to cover Indonesia’s electricity demand by 2030, when using bamboo as a biomass feedstock, and how likely is this land available? This research question is answered by first doing a geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Through the QGIS software, the degraded land locations in Indonesia which are suitable for bamboo plantations can be found. This is done by layering multiple datasets on top of each other in four steps. Next, the technoeconomic potential analysis is done by calculating how much degraded land would be needed to cover a certain percentage of Indonesia’s electricity demand by 2030, and calculating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of different biomass conversion technologies. The results show that between 0.21% and 49.9% of Indonesia’s total land area can be considered degraded according to different scenarios. The suitable area for bamboo plantations lays between the 0.01% and the 13% of Indonesia’s total land area. Using these areas the potential electricity that can be reached lays between the 0.4732 TWh for gasification, 0.3533 TWh for combustion, 0.3506 TWh for anaerobic digestion, and 0.1266 TWh for pyrolysis. The area needed to cover 25% of Indonesia’s electricity demand by 2030 ranges from 2.05.6% of Indonesia’s total land cover when using different conversion technologies. For 100% electricity demand this area increases to the range of 8.122.4% of Indonesia’s total land cover. The LCOE goes from 13 US$ct./kWh for gasification, to 16 US$ct./kWh for combustion, 22 US$ct./kWh for anaerobic digestion, and finally to 45 US$ct./kWh for pyrolysis. The result show that when using the least strict degraded land scenarios, it would be possible to cover a significant amount of Indonesia’s electricity demand. However, it is not likely that these scenarios will be applied. The definition of degraded land, still is not completely clear, and extensive field research needs to be done to validate the degraded land results. This research shows that bamboo cultivation on degraded land for electricity generation in Indonesia might not be applicable to generate large amounts of electricity. Nevertheless, it can be applied on smaller scales and it is a step in the right direction of Indonesia’s energy transition. Finally, some recommendations for future research can be made. First of all, uncertainty exists about the datasets used to assess the extent of degraded land in Indonesia. It is recommended that the datasets are validated through field research. Furthermore, in this research an assumption for the yield of bamboo is made, which can be tested against the actual yield of a bamboo plantation on degraded land in Indonesia. Also, socioeconomic and environmental effects of bamboo plantations are not considered, which provides the opportunity to address these in further research. Finally, other end uses like biofuel, other conversion technologies like cofiring, and pretreatment technologies to enhance the conversion efficiency can be evaluated in more detail in future research.

Indonesia is facing a challenge in fulfilling its future energy demand given the combination of a consistently high economic growth and a fast-growing population. The country also needs to increase the integration of renewable energy into the electricity system. Wind energy, one of the renewable energy alternatives, is severely underutilized in Indonesia. Accordingly, the Indonesian government aims to increase the installed wind farm capacity by twelvefold within the next five years. This research aims to fill a knowledge gap in the literature by determining economic potential of onshore and offshore wind energy in Indonesia and formulating recommendations for institutional changes to proliferate wind energy development. A techno-economic analysis is performed by means of a GIS-based modelling to determine the technical and economic potential. Based on the analysis, onshore and offshore wind technical potential amounts to 17.6 – 30.9 GW and 470.6 – 595.6 GW, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCOE of wind energy can be as low as 6.1 (onshore) and 13.4 (offshore) USD ct/kWh. However, only up to 8.0% and 1.4% of the onshore and offshore wind technical potential, respectively, is economically feasible under the current regulations. An institutional analysis is then conducted to identify the institutional barriers hampering wind energy development. The analysis focuses on the institutional environment (L2) and governance (L3) layer of Williamson’s four layers of institutions framework. Barriers related to electricity pricing (L2) include regulatory uncertainty and a low purchase price of RE-based electricity. Furthermore, the barrier in infrastructure planning (L2) is the low amount of additional wind farm capacity being planned and the inconsistency in planning. Issues on property rights allocation (L2), i.e. ownership transfer and foreign ownership restrictions on wind energy projects, have been addressed in recently enacted laws. Lastly, barriers in contracting (L3) encompass prolonged negotiations between PLN and IPPs, poor law and contract enforcement, insufficient coordination and leadership in the multi-layered governance, and limited availability of project funding. Three institutional recommendations are derived based on the identified barriers. First, the Government shall create an electricity pricing masterplan, which entails a phased implementation of economic policy instruments. Second, project funding should be provided by sustaining the Government’s subsidy to PLN and promoting local participation and ownership in the projects. Third, an independent regulator dedicated to the electricity sector should be formed to ensure sufficient stakeholder involvement and monitor the actors’ activities in this sector. Future research can perform a similar study at the regional level, particularly at provinces with promising economic wind energy potential. Furthermore, future studies can involve a comprehensive design of institutions and a roadmap for wind energy development in Indonesia.

The Indonesian government has announced a national strategy to achieve net-zero emissions through energy transition and justice. However, there are no extensive studies that assess the impact of this strategy and the growing demand in the Kalimantan power system. Therefore, this thesis project aims to conduct a techno-economic and energy justice analysis of the power system with the research question: “What is the optimum configuration of renewable energy integration in the interconnected Kalimantan power system in 2050 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions while considering some energy justice parameters?” The research is conducted using spatiotemporal power system modelling as well as qualitative analysis. This research concludes that RE integration and transmission system interconnection could lower the levelized system costs in 2050. The LCOE from the Kalimantan power system model could decline from 72 USD/MWh in 2021 to 31 USD/MWh in 2050. The electricity generation mix could evolve from 90% fossil fuel in 2021 to 100% RE plus battery storage in 2050, consisting of 76% hydro, 11% solar, 9% biomass, and is supported by 3% battery storage. It includes achieving net-zero carbon emissions and improving energy justice in terms of affordability, availability, and intra- and inter-generational equity in the Kalimantan power system.

The Indonesian government has set a target to increase new and renewable energy sources in the energy mix by 23% in 2030 and 31% in 2050, which are to be met by investing in hydropower and geothermal energy capacity mainly. However, Indonesia has abundant other renewable energy potentials, which are largely untapped. The Java-Madura-Bali (Jamali) system is Indonesia's largest electricity system. Integration of variable renewable energy resources requires flexibility options such as grid expansion and short- and long-term electricity storage. This research aims to fill the knowledge gap in the literature on the effect that different carbon emission reduction limits have on the Jamali power system design in 2050. This was done by studying the potential of various promising renewable energy technologies (solar photovoltaics, on- and offshore wind, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), geothermal and hydropower) in combination with short- and long-term storage (lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen storage) and grid expansions to mitigate renewable variability. For this purpose a techno-economic model was developed that optimizes operation and capacities of generation, storage and network simultaneously. The model simulates the system dynamics in the Jamali system in 2050 and was implemented in Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA). It was found that there is an exponential relationship between system costs and carbon emission reductions in the Jamali power system. Additionally, only moderate system cost increases were found up to 80% emission reductions compared to the reference scenario with no emission mitigation efforts. At higher carbon reduction scenarios the solar capacities reach their maximum installable capacities. As a result, system cost increase exponentially due to the need for OTEC and offshore wind capacities. The high costs increases by offshore wind can be explained by the uniform costs and coarse resolution of the model. In low carbon scenarios high battery capacities were found and network expansion is limited. It is concluded that the Jamali network cannot smooth the variability of wind throughout the power system, therefore, without storage capacities the system cost almost double. On the other hand, the network remains important to transport electricity from rich renewable regions to large demand centers. Based on the results three recommendations were proposed related to the reconsideration of the energy targets for 2050, strategy to achieve the targets and present policies.

Indonesia has ambitious targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 29 to 41% by 2030 and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. The residential sector in Indonesia consumes close to fifty percent of the country’s overall electricity demand. In the last decade, the residential demand for power has doubled, indicating a substantial rise. As a country with more than 17,000 islands, it is crucial to tackle the global warming implications including rising sea levels, significant drought risk, and rainfall fluctuations due to increased emissions arising from the surging energy consumption of Indonesia. Renewable energy installations, especially solar rooftop, and energy efficiency initiatives are some effective strategies to reduce Indonesia’s household emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to study the decarbonisation potential of the residential sector’s supply and demand sides through energy-efficient appliances, efficient building envelope design, and rooftop PV deployment. This report majorly addresses the research gap in evaluating the impact of continuous revision to appliance performance standards and the impact of current efficiency standards fixed by the government. To answer the research problem, three scenarios from 2023 to 2030 are designed; business as usual, government policy, and ambitious. Using the bottom-up stock model method, the projected electricity consumption of four appliances (air conditioner, refrigerator, rice cooker, and LED lamps) was determined. For rooftop PV, the electricity production was forecasted using the PVwatts software, and scenarios were created based on government targets, and considering the high rooftop PV growth in Vietnam. Finally, the policy recommendations were proposed after analysing the electricity saved, mitigated emissions, and generating costs saved in these scenarios from the residential sector. The analysis of Indonesia’s residential demand sector revealed that efficient building envelope and appliance alone can cut the residential sector’s electricity use by 18% by 2030. In addition, it was observed that the energy consumption of appliances could stabilise by 2030 as a consequence of aggressive energy efficiency policy measures. Among the four appliances analysed, air conditioners provide the largest energy savings (about 60 percent) due to their higher energy use and greater household penetration in coming years as a result of urbanisation and higher living standards. Existing mandated efficiency standards for refrigerators are well below the average efficiency in the market, preventing energy savings and market transformation to- wards efficient appliances. Significant financial savings owing to the elimination of fossil fueled power generation due to demand-side interventions amount to two billion US dollars. While analysing the supply side of Indonesia’s residential sector, it was observed that in ambitious scenario for rooftop PV may reach 79 GW by 2030 which would lead to decarbonisation of the supply side of residential side by 50%. In the optimistic scenario, the rooftop PV penetration in households could reach 64% by 2030, considering 1 kWp per house and the total rooftop area required for rooftop PV could be around 250 million square metres. The savings on the supply side resulting from the elimination of fossil fuel generation are close to 6 billion dollars. Considering the demand and supply interventions, the net demand for energy from the grid in the residential sector of Indonesia could be 165 TWh, 130 TWh, and 57 TWh under the three different decarbonisation scenarios. These measures can cut the net electricity consumption from grid in the residential sector by 65%. These demand and supply solutions would enable Indonesia to achieve at least 20 percent of its NDC target by 2030, which is crucial given that the current emission contribution of residential buildings in Indonesia is close to 16%. The results clearly demonstrate the enormous potential for decarbonising the residential sector in Indonesia, both on the supply and demand sides. This analysis resulted in some policy recommendations, one of which is that Indonesia could revise energy performance thresholds for appliances every two years as energy savings could double as compared to a scenario following the current revision cycle. The current efficiency standard for refrigerator is non impactful and may be ratcheted up soon. Like in the case of Vietnam, the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) could potentially increase the deployment of rooftop PV, so it is suggested to implement FiT for rooftop PV in Indonesia. For further research, it is suggested that financial constraints and economic impact of energy efficiency solutions from consumers’ perspective could be explored, energy savings from other widely used appliances like fans, CFL lamps could be investigated and the impact of setting minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for rooftop PV in Indonesia could be further analysed.

The Indonesian aims to greatly increase the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation mix. Rooftop solar photovoltaics (RTSPV) are a potential generation method that can be used in support of this, with Bali chosen as a case study. No estimates of the total technical and economic potential of RTSPV on Bali exist in academic literature. Low spatial resolution statistical methodologies exist to estimate the technical potential of RTSPV, but these are not accurate on the sub-national scale of Bali. Methodologies with a medium spatial resolution are most suitable for an area of the scale of Bali, however existing methodologies cannot be used due to incomplete cadastral data. In this thesis a novel methodology is introduced that allows the use of incomplete cadastral data, in combination with land use data, to estimate the total rooftop area in a region at a medium spatial resolution. The total rooftop area is then used to estimate the total technical potential and the total economic potential. Using this method, the rooftop area of Bali is estimated to be 130 km2, and the technical potential 22.9 TWh/year. The economic potential for RTSPV is estimated to be zero, as RTSPV cannot compete with conventional generation methods at current capital costs (CAPEX) of RTSPV components of 1200 USD/kWp. It is estimated that at a CAPEX of less than 870 USD/kWp sufficient electricity can be generated annually to fulfill the estimated annual demand of Bali of 5.7 TWh. 96% of the entire technical potential can be achieved at or below the cost per kWh of conventional generation methods if the price of RTSPV installations decreases to below 650 USD/kWp. If the compensation paid by the Indonesian state electricity company PLN for RTSPV electricity that is supplied to the grid is increased from 65% to 100% of the consumer electricity price, residential RTSPV installations can become economically viable at the current CAPEX of 1200 USD/kWp. This thesis will enrich existing literature on RTSPV potentials by introducing a novel methodology that can be applied in other regions with incomplete cadastral data. In addition, it provides a blueprint to estimate RTSPV potentials for other parts of Indonesia, and it supports policy makers by giving insight in factors that influence the economic potential of RTSPV on Bali and in Indonesia as a whole.

Indonesia has recently made a target to shift to more sustainable and renewable energy sources through its energy transition commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. It is widely reported in various literature that the country has significant solar energy potential. At the moment of writing, the current solar PV in construction, potentially the largest in Indonesia, is the Cirata floating solar PV project with an installed capacity of 145 MWp. This study shows that the technical potential of floating solar PV in Indonesia is 33 GWp at 5% water occupancy. Meanwhile, this study finds that the economic potential of floating solar is significantly lower than its technical potential, with only 6.4 GWp at 5% water occupancy. There are various support schemes to increase the economic potential of floating solar in Indonesia. The FSPV can become an alternative solution to renewable energy sources for Indonesia’s energy transition plan. In addition, a potential scenario is provided in this study to achieve the energy transition in Indonesia.

Indonesia has a severe problem of fossil fuel dependency, making it become one the world’s larger carbon emission contributor. At the same time, the growing population will increase the energy demand in the future. Thus, in order to meet the energy demand and decrease the carbon emission, the government together with PLN as the state electricity company will committed to implement carbon neutral targets by 2060. Additional of 413 GW installed power capacity will be necessary in which 308 GW generated from renewable energy. Indonesia has many renewable energy alternatives that can be utilized such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydropower. Among various renewable energy alternatives, hydropower has emerged as one of the means to achieve the aforementioned targets. Indonesia has a hydropower potential of around 75 GW from large hydropower and 19.4 GW from small hydropower, meanwhile, due to a number of barriers, hydropower contributed only 7% from installed large-scale hydropower and 2% from installed small-scale power plants. In order to reach the government’s goals, further study is needed to better understand the hydropower potential in Indonesia. Hence, the aim of this research is to quantify the potential of hydropower for Indonesia to find the possible location based on the economic consideration and to understand the positive influence of hydropower application. The analyses will be done using GIS-based modelling approach based on three DEM sources with 3 different resolutions, namely DEMNAS (0.27 arcseconds), USGS (1 arcsecond) and MERIT (3 arcseconds). The gross theoretical potential will be calculated based on the river discharge and the head of every pixel of the DEM. Further, the technical potential could be obtained by eliminating the output of theoretical potential with contraints area. Subsequently, the cost components (e.g investment and operational cost) will be added to the model to quantify the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The potential location that has LCOE lower the cost of power generation. Based on the analysis, the theoretical potential in Indonesia ranges for approximately 159 GW to 182 GW, or in annual energy production amounts to 1400 TWh to 1600 TWh. Subsequently, the technical potential after eliminating the constraints area decreased to around 550 TWh (63 GW) – 700 TWh (80 GW). On the other hand, based on the technical potential results, the LCOE ranges from 1 to 69 cent USD/kWh. However, only around 45% of the total technical potential is economically feasible. Thus, the hydropower potential lowered to 240 TWh (10 GW) – 690 TWh (38 GW). According the results, hydropower could cover 9% to 25% of the total required additional capacity planned by PLN and could reduce the carbon emission around 90% compared to the carbon emission of fossil fuels. Since this study used three different DEM resolutions, the output of the analyses varies depending on the DEM used. Based on the results, higher resolution DEM could delineate river shape better and thus the location of estimated hydropower potential location could be more accurate. However, DEM with larger pixel size could detect better the medium and large hydropower potential

Indonesia has set ambitious targets to increase renewable energy in the energy and electricity mix for 2025 and 2050. Solar photovoltaic (PV) is one of the renewable energy technology types that could play an important role in this transition, given the high resource potential compared to other countries and the global declining costs. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resource (MoEMR) has recognized the potential of solar energy and has expressed the intention to increase the share in the electricity mix (which currently is less than 1%) by focusing primarily on rooftop solar PV systems. However, utility-scale solar PV power plants could also play an important role, given the economies of scale advantages relative to rooftop systems. Unfortunately, a financial roadblock can be identified for the further development of utility-scale solar PV: the maximum allowed electricity prices that state electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) pays for electricity produced by a solar power plant, are often lower than the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). This creates an financially unattractive situation. This situation calls for insight into the economic potential of utility-scale solar PV and how this can be increased. However, no studies could be found that (1) look at how policies interventions can help to overcome the financial barrier and increase the economic potential and (2) assess the economic potential quantitatively not just in terms of LCOE but also in terms of the potential capacity and electricity generation given the maximum electricity price regulations that are in place.

This thesis delved into methods regarding optimizing subsidy policy for accelerating renewable energy in Indonesia. The method used objective programming to maximize subsidy efficiency from both a private and governmental perspectives.