G. Lavidas
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Ocean renewable energy is a key enabler of the global transition toward a decarbonised and resilient energy system. Among marine resources, wave energy offers high energy density, predictability, and strong complementarity with offshore wind, making it a promising candidate for reliable power generation. Despite this potential, commercial deployment remains limited due to challenges related to efficiency, survivability, and cost. As a result, research has increasingly shifted from individual devices to wave energy arrays, where hydrodynamic interactions can play a critical role in enhancing overall performance.
Two-body raft-type attenuators, such as the designs of the wave energy converters of Mocean Energy, have emerged as a promising configuration for intermediate to deep waters. These devices consist of two floating sections connected by a hinge joint, with energy extracted from their relative rotation through a power take-off (PTO) system. While the hydrodynamics and control of single raft devices have been studied, array-scale analyses of such hinged attenuators remain scarce, particularly those incorporating explicit PTO modelling. This gap limits current understanding of how inter-device hydrodynamic coupling influences array performance. This study presents a systematic assessment of arrays of two-body hinged raft attenuators using a weakly nonlinear frequency-domain model implemented in the open-source BIEM solver HAMS-MREL. The solver resolves multi-body diffraction and radiation interactions while explicitly representing hinge dynamics through frequency-dependent PTO damping and stiffness. A range of array configurations is analysed, varying the number of devices, spacing, and layout. Array performance is quantified solely using the array interaction factor (q-factor), enabling direct assessment of constructive and destructive hydrodynamic interactions. The results provide new insight into the role of array configuration and PTO characteristics in governing performance and highlight the potential for power amplification through favourable wave–device interactions. ...
Two-body raft-type attenuators, such as the designs of the wave energy converters of Mocean Energy, have emerged as a promising configuration for intermediate to deep waters. These devices consist of two floating sections connected by a hinge joint, with energy extracted from their relative rotation through a power take-off (PTO) system. While the hydrodynamics and control of single raft devices have been studied, array-scale analyses of such hinged attenuators remain scarce, particularly those incorporating explicit PTO modelling. This gap limits current understanding of how inter-device hydrodynamic coupling influences array performance. This study presents a systematic assessment of arrays of two-body hinged raft attenuators using a weakly nonlinear frequency-domain model implemented in the open-source BIEM solver HAMS-MREL. The solver resolves multi-body diffraction and radiation interactions while explicitly representing hinge dynamics through frequency-dependent PTO damping and stiffness. A range of array configurations is analysed, varying the number of devices, spacing, and layout. Array performance is quantified solely using the array interaction factor (q-factor), enabling direct assessment of constructive and destructive hydrodynamic interactions. The results provide new insight into the role of array configuration and PTO characteristics in governing performance and highlight the potential for power amplification through favourable wave–device interactions. ...
Ocean renewable energy is a key enabler of the global transition toward a decarbonised and resilient energy system. Among marine resources, wave energy offers high energy density, predictability, and strong complementarity with offshore wind, making it a promising candidate for reliable power generation. Despite this potential, commercial deployment remains limited due to challenges related to efficiency, survivability, and cost. As a result, research has increasingly shifted from individual devices to wave energy arrays, where hydrodynamic interactions can play a critical role in enhancing overall performance.
Two-body raft-type attenuators, such as the designs of the wave energy converters of Mocean Energy, have emerged as a promising configuration for intermediate to deep waters. These devices consist of two floating sections connected by a hinge joint, with energy extracted from their relative rotation through a power take-off (PTO) system. While the hydrodynamics and control of single raft devices have been studied, array-scale analyses of such hinged attenuators remain scarce, particularly those incorporating explicit PTO modelling. This gap limits current understanding of how inter-device hydrodynamic coupling influences array performance. This study presents a systematic assessment of arrays of two-body hinged raft attenuators using a weakly nonlinear frequency-domain model implemented in the open-source BIEM solver HAMS-MREL. The solver resolves multi-body diffraction and radiation interactions while explicitly representing hinge dynamics through frequency-dependent PTO damping and stiffness. A range of array configurations is analysed, varying the number of devices, spacing, and layout. Array performance is quantified solely using the array interaction factor (q-factor), enabling direct assessment of constructive and destructive hydrodynamic interactions. The results provide new insight into the role of array configuration and PTO characteristics in governing performance and highlight the potential for power amplification through favourable wave–device interactions.
Two-body raft-type attenuators, such as the designs of the wave energy converters of Mocean Energy, have emerged as a promising configuration for intermediate to deep waters. These devices consist of two floating sections connected by a hinge joint, with energy extracted from their relative rotation through a power take-off (PTO) system. While the hydrodynamics and control of single raft devices have been studied, array-scale analyses of such hinged attenuators remain scarce, particularly those incorporating explicit PTO modelling. This gap limits current understanding of how inter-device hydrodynamic coupling influences array performance. This study presents a systematic assessment of arrays of two-body hinged raft attenuators using a weakly nonlinear frequency-domain model implemented in the open-source BIEM solver HAMS-MREL. The solver resolves multi-body diffraction and radiation interactions while explicitly representing hinge dynamics through frequency-dependent PTO damping and stiffness. A range of array configurations is analysed, varying the number of devices, spacing, and layout. Array performance is quantified solely using the array interaction factor (q-factor), enabling direct assessment of constructive and destructive hydrodynamic interactions. The results provide new insight into the role of array configuration and PTO characteristics in governing performance and highlight the potential for power amplification through favourable wave–device interactions.
Wave-to-Wire (W2W) modeling simulates the whole operation process of wave energy converters (WECs), which plays a pivotal role in the systematic design and optimization of WECs. Existing W2W models are predominantly constructed based on time-domain (TD) analysis to coherently incorporate relevant nonlinearities. However, TD models require a high computational cost, which hinders the design iterations of WECs. As a newly emerging alternative approach, spectral-domain (SD) modeling has demonstrated the applicability of describing the W2W process while efficiently covering nonlinear effects through statistical linearization. This study aims to develop an SD W2W modeling approach for WECs coupled with a gearbox and rotary generator. The application of the proposed model is exemplified in two case studies: (1) a point absorber with a rack-pinion system and a rotary generator; (2) a flap-type WEC with a revolving gearbox and a rotary generator. The simulation results obtained by the SD W2W model are compared against a higher-fidelity nonlinear TD W2W model to verify its accuracy across a variety of sea states. A good agreement between the two modeling approaches is observed, in which the maximum relative error is below 7 % with regard to the estimation of important system outputs. Meanwhile, the computational efficiency of the SD W2W model is thousands of times higher than the TD modeling approach.
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Wave-to-Wire (W2W) modeling simulates the whole operation process of wave energy converters (WECs), which plays a pivotal role in the systematic design and optimization of WECs. Existing W2W models are predominantly constructed based on time-domain (TD) analysis to coherently incorporate relevant nonlinearities. However, TD models require a high computational cost, which hinders the design iterations of WECs. As a newly emerging alternative approach, spectral-domain (SD) modeling has demonstrated the applicability of describing the W2W process while efficiently covering nonlinear effects through statistical linearization. This study aims to develop an SD W2W modeling approach for WECs coupled with a gearbox and rotary generator. The application of the proposed model is exemplified in two case studies: (1) a point absorber with a rack-pinion system and a rotary generator; (2) a flap-type WEC with a revolving gearbox and a rotary generator. The simulation results obtained by the SD W2W model are compared against a higher-fidelity nonlinear TD W2W model to verify its accuracy across a variety of sea states. A good agreement between the two modeling approaches is observed, in which the maximum relative error is below 7 % with regard to the estimation of important system outputs. Meanwhile, the computational efficiency of the SD W2W model is thousands of times higher than the TD modeling approach.
Obtaining the hydrodynamic pressure distribution on the wetted surface of floating structures is a critical step in structural analysis and is commonly achieved through pressure regeneration based on predicted global dynamic responses. Using derived hydrodynamic coefficients, various dynamic modeling approaches, including Cummins-equation-based nonlinear time-domain modeling, statistical linearization, and Lorentz linearization, can be applied to solve for the global dynamics of structures subjected to specific wave conditions. These dynamic modeling approaches differ in both computational efficiency and modeling fidelity. Despite their widespread use, a systematic comparison of these approaches, particularly between statistical and Lorentz linearization in predicting global dynamics and regenerated pressure fields, remains limited. This study addresses this gap by conducting a comparative study of linear-potential-flow-based dynamic modeling approaches using a generic cylindrical floater, incorporating a representative nonlinear external machinery effect through different modeling approaches. The resulting global responses are used to regenerate hydrodynamic pressure distributions, showing that all the dynamic modeling approaches agree well under low wave steepness. As wave steepness increases, the prediction performance of statistical linearization, Lorentz linearization, and a simplified Lorentz linearization, gradually decreases relative to the nonlinear time-domain model. Among these, the statistical linearization approach provides results closer to the nonlinear time-domain model than both Lorentz-based linearization methods, particularly in capturing global dynamics and reconstructing hydrodynamic pressure distributions under relatively high wave steepness. Given its high computational efficiency, the statistical linearization approach has the potential to be further developed as an efficient alternative modeling for estimating dynamic responses and hydrodynamic pressure distributions.
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Obtaining the hydrodynamic pressure distribution on the wetted surface of floating structures is a critical step in structural analysis and is commonly achieved through pressure regeneration based on predicted global dynamic responses. Using derived hydrodynamic coefficients, various dynamic modeling approaches, including Cummins-equation-based nonlinear time-domain modeling, statistical linearization, and Lorentz linearization, can be applied to solve for the global dynamics of structures subjected to specific wave conditions. These dynamic modeling approaches differ in both computational efficiency and modeling fidelity. Despite their widespread use, a systematic comparison of these approaches, particularly between statistical and Lorentz linearization in predicting global dynamics and regenerated pressure fields, remains limited. This study addresses this gap by conducting a comparative study of linear-potential-flow-based dynamic modeling approaches using a generic cylindrical floater, incorporating a representative nonlinear external machinery effect through different modeling approaches. The resulting global responses are used to regenerate hydrodynamic pressure distributions, showing that all the dynamic modeling approaches agree well under low wave steepness. As wave steepness increases, the prediction performance of statistical linearization, Lorentz linearization, and a simplified Lorentz linearization, gradually decreases relative to the nonlinear time-domain model. Among these, the statistical linearization approach provides results closer to the nonlinear time-domain model than both Lorentz-based linearization methods, particularly in capturing global dynamics and reconstructing hydrodynamic pressure distributions under relatively high wave steepness. Given its high computational efficiency, the statistical linearization approach has the potential to be further developed as an efficient alternative modeling for estimating dynamic responses and hydrodynamic pressure distributions.
Conference paper
(2026)
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Ardemia Acampora, Harishankar Sivaprasad, George Lavidas, Apostolos Tsouvalas
The deployment of floating offshore wind turbines requires the installation of anchoring systems in deep-water environments, where pile driving operations may be performed using fully submerged impact hammers. While underwater noise from offshore pile driving has been widely studied, most existing approaches assume impacts occurring in air and may not entirely capture these emerging installation configurations. Furthermore, current assessment frameworks are primarily based on pressure-related acoustic metrics and do not explicitly account for particle motion. This study investigates the vibro-acoustic response of a driven pile under submerged impact conditions, with particular focus on particle motion in both the water column and the seabed. A physics-based modelling approach is adopted to analyse the coupled pile–soil–fluid system, capturing both the radiated acoustic field in the water and the vibration field transmitted through the seabed. The response is described in terms of particle velocity, enabling a consistent representation across both media. The results provide insight into the mechanisms governing energy transmission into the seabed, supporting a more comprehensive assessment of environmental effects in deep-water pile installation.
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The deployment of floating offshore wind turbines requires the installation of anchoring systems in deep-water environments, where pile driving operations may be performed using fully submerged impact hammers. While underwater noise from offshore pile driving has been widely studied, most existing approaches assume impacts occurring in air and may not entirely capture these emerging installation configurations. Furthermore, current assessment frameworks are primarily based on pressure-related acoustic metrics and do not explicitly account for particle motion. This study investigates the vibro-acoustic response of a driven pile under submerged impact conditions, with particular focus on particle motion in both the water column and the seabed. A physics-based modelling approach is adopted to analyse the coupled pile–soil–fluid system, capturing both the radiated acoustic field in the water and the vibration field transmitted through the seabed. The response is described in terms of particle velocity, enabling a consistent representation across both media. The results provide insight into the mechanisms governing energy transmission into the seabed, supporting a more comprehensive assessment of environmental effects in deep-water pile installation.
As wave energy converters (WECs) progress toward largescale commercialization, deployment in arrays is required to achieve higher power capacities, where hydrodynamic interactions strongly influence performance. While Power Take-Off (PTO) systems play a key role in both WEC dynamics and cost, PTO sizing has mainly been studied for standalone devices. This work investigates the combined effects of PTO sizing and array configuration on the techno-economic performance of WEC arrays. A reference array of five heaving point absorbers is analyzed using numerical hydrodynamic modeling with Nemoh and a spectral-domain approach incorporating PTO force capping via statistical linearization, alongside a preliminary cost model. Three representative array configurations are examined, and the results show that PTO sizing is strongly configuration-dependent and can significantly improve overall techno-economic performance, assessed through the levelized cost of energy.
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As wave energy converters (WECs) progress toward largescale commercialization, deployment in arrays is required to achieve higher power capacities, where hydrodynamic interactions strongly influence performance. While Power Take-Off (PTO) systems play a key role in both WEC dynamics and cost, PTO sizing has mainly been studied for standalone devices. This work investigates the combined effects of PTO sizing and array configuration on the techno-economic performance of WEC arrays. A reference array of five heaving point absorbers is analyzed using numerical hydrodynamic modeling with Nemoh and a spectral-domain approach incorporating PTO force capping via statistical linearization, alongside a preliminary cost model. Three representative array configurations are examined, and the results show that PTO sizing is strongly configuration-dependent and can significantly improve overall techno-economic performance, assessed through the levelized cost of energy.
Recent studies have demonstrated the merits of spectral-domain (SD) modeling in efficiently addressing nonlinear dynamic behvavior of stand-alone wave energy converters (WECs). However, the potential of the SD modeling approach deserves further exploitation by examining its applicability in simulating the entire wave-to-wire (W2W) process of WEC arrays. This article proposed and verified a SD W2W model of WEC arrays. The WEC arrays are considered as five same-sized heaving cylindrical point absorbers, and they are all equipped with linear Permanent Magnet (PM) generators. The established SD W2W model is verified by being compared with results of a nonlinear time-domain-based W2W model across a variety of operation conditions. The computational efficiency of the two simulation approaches in modeling WEC arrays is also identified and compared. The results suggest that the SD W2W model is associated with a relative error of less than 11 % to the nonlinear time-domain reference, with regard to the estimates of significant statistical performance indicators, such as WEC velocity, absorbed and electrical power of individual power, and total electrical power production of the WEC arrays. At the same time, the SD W2W model presents a high computational efficiency, being around 2000 times faster than the time-domain W2W model of WEC arrays.
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Recent studies have demonstrated the merits of spectral-domain (SD) modeling in efficiently addressing nonlinear dynamic behvavior of stand-alone wave energy converters (WECs). However, the potential of the SD modeling approach deserves further exploitation by examining its applicability in simulating the entire wave-to-wire (W2W) process of WEC arrays. This article proposed and verified a SD W2W model of WEC arrays. The WEC arrays are considered as five same-sized heaving cylindrical point absorbers, and they are all equipped with linear Permanent Magnet (PM) generators. The established SD W2W model is verified by being compared with results of a nonlinear time-domain-based W2W model across a variety of operation conditions. The computational efficiency of the two simulation approaches in modeling WEC arrays is also identified and compared. The results suggest that the SD W2W model is associated with a relative error of less than 11 % to the nonlinear time-domain reference, with regard to the estimates of significant statistical performance indicators, such as WEC velocity, absorbed and electrical power of individual power, and total electrical power production of the WEC arrays. At the same time, the SD W2W model presents a high computational efficiency, being around 2000 times faster than the time-domain W2W model of WEC arrays.
Due to the complexity of the ocean environment and wave energy converter (WEC) system, it has been an effort-demanding work to assess either the power performance or fatigue loads of WECs. This work attempts to apply a data-driven approach to increase the efficiency of the collective prediction of the power and fatigue load of a point-absorber type WEC. Nonlinear time-domain modeling is first established to estimate the power and fatigue loads, which is considered the reference data in this work. To demonstrate the performance of the applied data-driven approach, two prevalent power take-off (PTO) mechanisms are implemented to represent different characteristics of WECs. A data-driven approach, active learning Kriging (AK), is adapted to predict power and fatigue loads collectively, and a new learning function is defined to select the enriched wave cases for the active learning process. Results show that the applied active learning approach can accurately and simultaneously predict power and fatigue loads in both PTO mechanisms. Compared to pure numerical simulation, the proposed method only requires 15 simulations of sea state, and the computational effort is reduced by more than 20 times. The maximum prediction error is less than 2%. The data-driven approach could be a powerful tool for WEC system optimization, considering both power performance and fatigue loads.
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Due to the complexity of the ocean environment and wave energy converter (WEC) system, it has been an effort-demanding work to assess either the power performance or fatigue loads of WECs. This work attempts to apply a data-driven approach to increase the efficiency of the collective prediction of the power and fatigue load of a point-absorber type WEC. Nonlinear time-domain modeling is first established to estimate the power and fatigue loads, which is considered the reference data in this work. To demonstrate the performance of the applied data-driven approach, two prevalent power take-off (PTO) mechanisms are implemented to represent different characteristics of WECs. A data-driven approach, active learning Kriging (AK), is adapted to predict power and fatigue loads collectively, and a new learning function is defined to select the enriched wave cases for the active learning process. Results show that the applied active learning approach can accurately and simultaneously predict power and fatigue loads in both PTO mechanisms. Compared to pure numerical simulation, the proposed method only requires 15 simulations of sea state, and the computational effort is reduced by more than 20 times. The maximum prediction error is less than 2%. The data-driven approach could be a powerful tool for WEC system optimization, considering both power performance and fatigue loads.
Wave energy arrays are essential for reducing the Levelised Cost of Energy, yet the performance of traditional mono-device arrays is often limited by destructive hydrodynamic interactions and directional sensitivity. This work focuses on ”mixed arrays,” wherein different types and geometries of wave energy converters operating in different degrees of freedom (point Absorber and a flap) are deployed within the same array to exploit complementary device dynamics, whilst reducing spatial requirements. Using a weakly non-linear frequency-domain model utilising the solver HAMS-MREL, a systematic comparison is performed across 3360 cases considering varying array sizes, spacings, wave directions, and control strategies (active and passive). Comparison of array performance is based on the well known q-factor and a new geometry dependent metric (M-factor). The results demonstrate that mixed arrays can outperform mono-device arrays by leveraging favourable hydrodynamic cross-coupling and radiated wave-field alignment. For a 10-device staggered configuration, mixed arrays achieved a peak q-factor of 1.6 and an M-factor of 2.25 under regular waves, showing a 175% increase in point absorber heave response under displacement constraints and 34% increase in flap excitation forces. Performance is sensitive to the spacing-to-wavelength ratio, mixed arrays exhibit superior directional robustness, and reduced efficiency collapse compared to mono-flap arrays. The findings suggest that mixed-device configurations can provide a robust alternative for optimising energy capture, reducing spatial requirements, offering new collaboration opportunities and contributing to the viability of wave energy arrays.
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Wave energy arrays are essential for reducing the Levelised Cost of Energy, yet the performance of traditional mono-device arrays is often limited by destructive hydrodynamic interactions and directional sensitivity. This work focuses on ”mixed arrays,” wherein different types and geometries of wave energy converters operating in different degrees of freedom (point Absorber and a flap) are deployed within the same array to exploit complementary device dynamics, whilst reducing spatial requirements. Using a weakly non-linear frequency-domain model utilising the solver HAMS-MREL, a systematic comparison is performed across 3360 cases considering varying array sizes, spacings, wave directions, and control strategies (active and passive). Comparison of array performance is based on the well known q-factor and a new geometry dependent metric (M-factor). The results demonstrate that mixed arrays can outperform mono-device arrays by leveraging favourable hydrodynamic cross-coupling and radiated wave-field alignment. For a 10-device staggered configuration, mixed arrays achieved a peak q-factor of 1.6 and an M-factor of 2.25 under regular waves, showing a 175% increase in point absorber heave response under displacement constraints and 34% increase in flap excitation forces. Performance is sensitive to the spacing-to-wavelength ratio, mixed arrays exhibit superior directional robustness, and reduced efficiency collapse compared to mono-flap arrays. The findings suggest that mixed-device configurations can provide a robust alternative for optimising energy capture, reducing spatial requirements, offering new collaboration opportunities and contributing to the viability of wave energy arrays.
Marine resources such as wind and wave are expected to play an important role in decarbonising the UK’s energy network, as part of the global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. However, potential increases in global weather systems variability due to climate change cast doubt on the long-term sustainability of offshore renewable development and the ambitions of the UK government to rapidly expand current capacity. As such, growing interest in co-located wind–wave systems is being paid as a means of enhancing the climate resilience of the future energy network. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on wind and wave resources in the UK from 2015 to 2100, using available CMIP6 datasets and numerical wave modelling using SWAN. In doing so, an initial assessment of the potential for co-located infrastructure is undertaken to inform future research into its role in strengthening the climate resilience of ocean renewable generation. The results reveal gradual reductions in resource availability under a high emission scenario, with statistically significant annual trends detected across most of the study area. Reductions in average annual wind energy reach −16.0% in coastal areas of Northern Ireland towards the end of the century, while decreases in wave energy of more than 25% are projected in certain regions of the North Sea. These trends are primarily driven by seasonal reductions during summer months, with decreases in average wind power during these months as much as −29.0% and decreases in wave power of over −40%. In addition, increases in resource variability from the mid-century onwards suggest that climate change is likely to negatively affect the availability of the UK’s wind and wave energy resources in the long term.
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Marine resources such as wind and wave are expected to play an important role in decarbonising the UK’s energy network, as part of the global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. However, potential increases in global weather systems variability due to climate change cast doubt on the long-term sustainability of offshore renewable development and the ambitions of the UK government to rapidly expand current capacity. As such, growing interest in co-located wind–wave systems is being paid as a means of enhancing the climate resilience of the future energy network. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on wind and wave resources in the UK from 2015 to 2100, using available CMIP6 datasets and numerical wave modelling using SWAN. In doing so, an initial assessment of the potential for co-located infrastructure is undertaken to inform future research into its role in strengthening the climate resilience of ocean renewable generation. The results reveal gradual reductions in resource availability under a high emission scenario, with statistically significant annual trends detected across most of the study area. Reductions in average annual wind energy reach −16.0% in coastal areas of Northern Ireland towards the end of the century, while decreases in wave energy of more than 25% are projected in certain regions of the North Sea. These trends are primarily driven by seasonal reductions during summer months, with decreases in average wind power during these months as much as −29.0% and decreases in wave power of over −40%. In addition, increases in resource variability from the mid-century onwards suggest that climate change is likely to negatively affect the availability of the UK’s wind and wave energy resources in the long term.
Wave power for e-fuels and e-chemicals production
Technical feasibility, economic viability, and regional opportunities
Journal article
(2026)
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Rasul Satymov, Dmitrii Bogdanov, George Lavidas, Shona Pennock, Sarah Kluge, Benjamin Lehner, Christian Breyer
The global energy transition necessitates the defossilisation of the energy-intensive industry and hard-to-abate transport sectors, where direct electrification falls short due to limitations in energy density. Electricity-based fuels and chemicals (e-fuels and e-chemicals) emerge as a viable alternative, offering high energy density and compatibility with existing infrastructure. However, their production hinges on access to vast amounts of low-cost renewable electricity, a challenge for regions with limited land. This study explores wave power as an underexplored source for e-fuel production, focusing on regions with exceptional wave energy: New Zealand, Chile, and Ireland. Using energyHub-LUT, a newly developed optimisation model, the research evaluates the techno-economics of wave power, alongside solar photovoltaics and wind power, for producing e-fuels and e-chemicals. The results show that wave power supplies more stable power for e-fuel production compared to onshore wind power and solar photovoltaics, cutting the need for batteries by 25-100%, depending on location. Chile produces the lowest cost e-fuels when wave power is integrated alongside solar photovoltaics and onshore wind power, thanks to over 7000 full load hours, but its higher capital expenditures render it less competitive than onshore renewable energy. The study concludes that wave power's economic viability is limited even in regions with very high full load hours but also highlights its potential as an alternative where land scarcity hinders large-scale renewable energy projects or in cases of near baseload direct electricity need.
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The global energy transition necessitates the defossilisation of the energy-intensive industry and hard-to-abate transport sectors, where direct electrification falls short due to limitations in energy density. Electricity-based fuels and chemicals (e-fuels and e-chemicals) emerge as a viable alternative, offering high energy density and compatibility with existing infrastructure. However, their production hinges on access to vast amounts of low-cost renewable electricity, a challenge for regions with limited land. This study explores wave power as an underexplored source for e-fuel production, focusing on regions with exceptional wave energy: New Zealand, Chile, and Ireland. Using energyHub-LUT, a newly developed optimisation model, the research evaluates the techno-economics of wave power, alongside solar photovoltaics and wind power, for producing e-fuels and e-chemicals. The results show that wave power supplies more stable power for e-fuel production compared to onshore wind power and solar photovoltaics, cutting the need for batteries by 25-100%, depending on location. Chile produces the lowest cost e-fuels when wave power is integrated alongside solar photovoltaics and onshore wind power, thanks to over 7000 full load hours, but its higher capital expenditures render it less competitive than onshore renewable energy. The study concludes that wave power's economic viability is limited even in regions with very high full load hours but also highlights its potential as an alternative where land scarcity hinders large-scale renewable energy projects or in cases of near baseload direct electricity need.
Wave energy arrays are essential for reducing the Levelised Cost of Energy, yet the performance of traditional mono-device arrays is often limited by destructive hydrodynamic interactions and directional sensitivity. This work focuses on ”mixed arrays,” wherein different types and geometries of wave energy converters operating in different degrees of freedom (point Absorber and a flap) are deployed within the same array to exploit complementary device dynamics, whilst reducing spatial requirements. Using a weakly non-linear frequency-domain model utilising the solver HAMS-MREL, a systematic comparison is performed across 3360 cases considering varying array sizes, spacings, wave directions, and control strategies (active and passive). Comparison of array performance is based on the well known q-factor and a new geometry dependent metric (M-factor). The results demonstrate that mixed arrays can outperform mono-device arrays by leveraging favourable hydrodynamic cross-coupling and radiated wave-field alignment. For a 10-device staggered configuration, mixed arrays achieved a peak q-factor of 1.6 and an M-factor of 2.25 under regular waves, showing a 175% increase in point absorber heave response under displacement constraints and 34% increase in flap excitation forces. Performance is sensitive to the spacing-to-wavelength ratio, mixed arrays exhibit superior directional robustness, and reduced efficiency collapse compared to mono-flap arrays. The findings suggest that mixed-device configurations can provide a robust alternative for optimising energy capture, reducing spatial requirements, offering new collaboration opportunities and contributing to the viability of wave energy arrays.
...
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Wave energy arrays are essential for reducing the Levelised Cost of Energy, yet the performance of traditional mono-device arrays is often limited by destructive hydrodynamic interactions and directional sensitivity. This work focuses on ”mixed arrays,” wherein different types and geometries of wave energy converters operating in different degrees of freedom (point Absorber and a flap) are deployed within the same array to exploit complementary device dynamics, whilst reducing spatial requirements. Using a weakly non-linear frequency-domain model utilising the solver HAMS-MREL, a systematic comparison is performed across 3360 cases considering varying array sizes, spacings, wave directions, and control strategies (active and passive). Comparison of array performance is based on the well known q-factor and a new geometry dependent metric (M-factor). The results demonstrate that mixed arrays can outperform mono-device arrays by leveraging favourable hydrodynamic cross-coupling and radiated wave-field alignment. For a 10-device staggered configuration, mixed arrays achieved a peak q-factor of 1.6 and an M-factor of 2.25 under regular waves, showing a 175% increase in point absorber heave response under displacement constraints and 34% increase in flap excitation forces. Performance is sensitive to the spacing-to-wavelength ratio, mixed arrays exhibit superior directional robustness, and reduced efficiency collapse compared to mono-flap arrays. The findings suggest that mixed-device configurations can provide a robust alternative for optimising energy capture, reducing spatial requirements, offering new collaboration opportunities and contributing to the viability of wave energy arrays.
Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Wave Energy Converter Arrays
Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion of Layout–PTO–Wave Effects
Designing wave energy converter (WEC) arrays demands simultaneous choices about spatial configuration, power-take-off (PTO) settings, and the incident wave climate. This paper quantifies the relative contribution of these three factor groups to array performance for a seven-device system using non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE). A linear hydrodynamic model with full device–device coupling provides training data for total absorbed power, array interaction factor, and representative structural load metrics under directional JONSWAP seas. Uncertain inputs include layout parameters (longitudinal spacing, transverse offset, and global yaw), PTO parameters (linear damping and stiffness about the dominant mode), and wave parameters (significant height, peak period, mean direction, and spreading). We construct sparse PCE surrogates (up to third order, selected via LARS) and derive variance-based global sensitivity indices (first-order, total-order, and selected second-order Sobol’ terms).
Results for the 7-WEC case study show that wave parameters—especially HsH_sHs, TpT_pTp, and incidence angle—dominate variability in annual energy, while PTO damping exerts the leading controllable influence on both power and loads. Spatial configuration contributes materially through direction-dependent interaction effects: longitudinal spacing and global yaw govern constructive/destructive interference, and their interaction with wave direction is one of the largest second-order effects. The PCE surrogates reproduce high-fidelity responses with low error, enabling rapid “what-if” exploration and robust design screening.
The proposed framework provides a transparent attribution of performance drivers across layout, PTO, and wave climate for multi-device arrays. Practically, it indicates where to focus tuning effort (PTO), which layout levers carry the most value under directional uncertainty (spacing and yaw), and how to reduce design space by prioritizing the variables that explain most of the variance. ...
Results for the 7-WEC case study show that wave parameters—especially HsH_sHs, TpT_pTp, and incidence angle—dominate variability in annual energy, while PTO damping exerts the leading controllable influence on both power and loads. Spatial configuration contributes materially through direction-dependent interaction effects: longitudinal spacing and global yaw govern constructive/destructive interference, and their interaction with wave direction is one of the largest second-order effects. The PCE surrogates reproduce high-fidelity responses with low error, enabling rapid “what-if” exploration and robust design screening.
The proposed framework provides a transparent attribution of performance drivers across layout, PTO, and wave climate for multi-device arrays. Practically, it indicates where to focus tuning effort (PTO), which layout levers carry the most value under directional uncertainty (spacing and yaw), and how to reduce design space by prioritizing the variables that explain most of the variance. ...
Designing wave energy converter (WEC) arrays demands simultaneous choices about spatial configuration, power-take-off (PTO) settings, and the incident wave climate. This paper quantifies the relative contribution of these three factor groups to array performance for a seven-device system using non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE). A linear hydrodynamic model with full device–device coupling provides training data for total absorbed power, array interaction factor, and representative structural load metrics under directional JONSWAP seas. Uncertain inputs include layout parameters (longitudinal spacing, transverse offset, and global yaw), PTO parameters (linear damping and stiffness about the dominant mode), and wave parameters (significant height, peak period, mean direction, and spreading). We construct sparse PCE surrogates (up to third order, selected via LARS) and derive variance-based global sensitivity indices (first-order, total-order, and selected second-order Sobol’ terms).
Results for the 7-WEC case study show that wave parameters—especially HsH_sHs, TpT_pTp, and incidence angle—dominate variability in annual energy, while PTO damping exerts the leading controllable influence on both power and loads. Spatial configuration contributes materially through direction-dependent interaction effects: longitudinal spacing and global yaw govern constructive/destructive interference, and their interaction with wave direction is one of the largest second-order effects. The PCE surrogates reproduce high-fidelity responses with low error, enabling rapid “what-if” exploration and robust design screening.
The proposed framework provides a transparent attribution of performance drivers across layout, PTO, and wave climate for multi-device arrays. Practically, it indicates where to focus tuning effort (PTO), which layout levers carry the most value under directional uncertainty (spacing and yaw), and how to reduce design space by prioritizing the variables that explain most of the variance.
Results for the 7-WEC case study show that wave parameters—especially HsH_sHs, TpT_pTp, and incidence angle—dominate variability in annual energy, while PTO damping exerts the leading controllable influence on both power and loads. Spatial configuration contributes materially through direction-dependent interaction effects: longitudinal spacing and global yaw govern constructive/destructive interference, and their interaction with wave direction is one of the largest second-order effects. The PCE surrogates reproduce high-fidelity responses with low error, enabling rapid “what-if” exploration and robust design screening.
The proposed framework provides a transparent attribution of performance drivers across layout, PTO, and wave climate for multi-device arrays. Practically, it indicates where to focus tuning effort (PTO), which layout levers carry the most value under directional uncertainty (spacing and yaw), and how to reduce design space by prioritizing the variables that explain most of the variance.
Wave energy converter (WEC) arrays should be designed to ensure consistent and optimal power production over long operational periods. This requires an understanding of stochastic wave variability, interactive effects among devices and their mutual dependence. In this work, a computationally efficient surrogate modelling framework was developed using data-driven polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to analyze the performance of WEC arrays under realistic sea state conditions spanning 30 years. For this purpose, using Latin hypercube sampling scheme on a joint probability distribution derived from the ECHOWAVE hindcast dataset, resulting $10^6$ combinations of significant wave height (Hs), wave period (Tp), and WEC radius (R) for two array configurations—interacting and non-interacting cases were evaluated. The surrogate model was set up to evaluate the performance of WEC arrays by means of global sensitivity analysis using Sobol indices. The results conclude that the interactive effects significantly alter the contribution of design parameters (like geometry and spatial configurations) to power output, emphasizing the inadequacy of single-device analysis for array optimization. The findings highlight the importance of tailored WEC design within arrays and offer a robust approach for long-term performance prediction and optimization of wave energy farms.
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Wave energy converter (WEC) arrays should be designed to ensure consistent and optimal power production over long operational periods. This requires an understanding of stochastic wave variability, interactive effects among devices and their mutual dependence. In this work, a computationally efficient surrogate modelling framework was developed using data-driven polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to analyze the performance of WEC arrays under realistic sea state conditions spanning 30 years. For this purpose, using Latin hypercube sampling scheme on a joint probability distribution derived from the ECHOWAVE hindcast dataset, resulting $10^6$ combinations of significant wave height (Hs), wave period (Tp), and WEC radius (R) for two array configurations—interacting and non-interacting cases were evaluated. The surrogate model was set up to evaluate the performance of WEC arrays by means of global sensitivity analysis using Sobol indices. The results conclude that the interactive effects significantly alter the contribution of design parameters (like geometry and spatial configurations) to power output, emphasizing the inadequacy of single-device analysis for array optimization. The findings highlight the importance of tailored WEC design within arrays and offer a robust approach for long-term performance prediction and optimization of wave energy farms.
As the necessity for the decarbonisation of the global electricity market increases, a range of renewable energy technologies will be implemented, one of which is wave energy. A key step in this process is the thorough quantification of both the power resource at locations of interest, and the impacts of these devices on the natural environment. The present work streamlines these 2 processes into one methodology by investigating the long-term impacts of an array of 20 WECs on the nearshore Dutch wave climate, while also calculating the potential power resource at the site considering intra-array wake effects. Simulations of 10 year duration were conducted in the baseline scenario (no farm present) and with 2 array configurations, using the spectral wave model SWAN on an unstructured mesh. It was demonstrated that the power production of the farm during this period, when wake effects are considered, is calculated to be up to 1.8% less than traditional methods. The presence of the farm is shown to reduce significant wave height and wave power in its lee, with the effects being largely attenuated at the coast. It was shown that the magnitude of the change is dependent on both the period and height of the waves at the farm, and notably the magnitude of the reduction does not increase consistently with the wave height, contradicting the sentiment that wave farms are effective protection mechanisms against damaging high-energy conditions. Furthermore, the present work suggests that changes to the nearshore breaker index may impact longshore currents that are essential for nutrient and sediment transport, the effect of which on the ecosystem is not yet well quantified.
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As the necessity for the decarbonisation of the global electricity market increases, a range of renewable energy technologies will be implemented, one of which is wave energy. A key step in this process is the thorough quantification of both the power resource at locations of interest, and the impacts of these devices on the natural environment. The present work streamlines these 2 processes into one methodology by investigating the long-term impacts of an array of 20 WECs on the nearshore Dutch wave climate, while also calculating the potential power resource at the site considering intra-array wake effects. Simulations of 10 year duration were conducted in the baseline scenario (no farm present) and with 2 array configurations, using the spectral wave model SWAN on an unstructured mesh. It was demonstrated that the power production of the farm during this period, when wake effects are considered, is calculated to be up to 1.8% less than traditional methods. The presence of the farm is shown to reduce significant wave height and wave power in its lee, with the effects being largely attenuated at the coast. It was shown that the magnitude of the change is dependent on both the period and height of the waves at the farm, and notably the magnitude of the reduction does not increase consistently with the wave height, contradicting the sentiment that wave farms are effective protection mechanisms against damaging high-energy conditions. Furthermore, the present work suggests that changes to the nearshore breaker index may impact longshore currents that are essential for nutrient and sediment transport, the effect of which on the ecosystem is not yet well quantified.
Journal article
(2025)
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Rasul Satymov, Dmitrii Bogdanov, George Lavidas, Shona Pennock, Sarah Kluge, Benjamin Lehner, Christian Breyer
The best wave energy resources are typically found far from land, especially in the far southern latitudes. However, these optimal locations often lie outside any single nation's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and are located in deep ocean waters, though a few places stand out, namely Kerguelen Islands, the southern coast of Chile and the southern tip of New Zealand. The Kerguelen Islands are situated in a prime wave energy location, with a potential capacity factor exceeding 90% when using best of breed point-absorber wave energy converters (WECs). This could result in a levelised cost of electricity of 31.4 €/MWh by 2050. An earlier study showed that the Kerguelen Islands could support up to 7 GW of installable wave power capacity, utilising only 15% of the EEZ.
To evaluate the feasibility of establishing an energy hub on Kerguelen Islands, a scenario was developed using the EnergyPLAN modelling software. The scenario involves producing e-fuels and e-chemicals, which will be essential for sectors like marine and aviation transportation and chemicals as the world transitions to a defossilised economy. This analysis assumes that the islands could supply fuel for East Asia, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. By 2050, the 7 GW wave power system could meet 3% of the demand for e-fuels and e-chemicals in these countries, producing 3.5 TWhth,LHV of e-kerosene, 2.6 TWhth,LHV of e-diesel, 19 TWhth,LHV of e-methanol, 2.5 TWhth,LHV of e-LNG, and 4.9 TWhth,LHV of e-ammonia. The cost projections for 2050 suggest that e-fuels and e-chemicals produced from Kerguelen Islands could be highly competitive, with projected costs of 95.0 €/MWh for e-kerosene and e-diesel, 78.7 €/MWh for e-methanol, 64.5 €/MWh for e-LNG, and 68.4 €/MWh for e-ammonia.
In addition to wave power, the system would incorporate 2 GWhcap of battery storage and 50 GWh of underground rock cavern hydrogen storage, further enhancing the energy hub's capacity and flexibility. These costs, assumed for 2050, are projected to be competitive compared to leading global sites, such as the Atacama Desert, which has excellent solar PV resources. For comparison, the Atacama Desert’s e-fuels production cost is estimated to range from 70-75 €/MWh, e-methanol is between 49-57 €/MWh and e-ammonia at 53 €/MWh.
However, the costs mentioned above do not include shipping costs. Shipping costs for ammonia for 10,000 km to East Asia could add up to 8 €/MWh, while shipping costs for methanol could add up to 4 €/MWh. For the Kerguelen Islands an attractive business model could be established to diversify the global e-fuels and e-chemicals production that may largely shift towards solar energy. This creates a promising opportunity for investment in a gigawatt-scale energy hub for e-fuels and e-chemicals on Kerguelen Islands, including the necessary infrastructure for shipping and workforce to maintain such a system. ...
To evaluate the feasibility of establishing an energy hub on Kerguelen Islands, a scenario was developed using the EnergyPLAN modelling software. The scenario involves producing e-fuels and e-chemicals, which will be essential for sectors like marine and aviation transportation and chemicals as the world transitions to a defossilised economy. This analysis assumes that the islands could supply fuel for East Asia, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. By 2050, the 7 GW wave power system could meet 3% of the demand for e-fuels and e-chemicals in these countries, producing 3.5 TWhth,LHV of e-kerosene, 2.6 TWhth,LHV of e-diesel, 19 TWhth,LHV of e-methanol, 2.5 TWhth,LHV of e-LNG, and 4.9 TWhth,LHV of e-ammonia. The cost projections for 2050 suggest that e-fuels and e-chemicals produced from Kerguelen Islands could be highly competitive, with projected costs of 95.0 €/MWh for e-kerosene and e-diesel, 78.7 €/MWh for e-methanol, 64.5 €/MWh for e-LNG, and 68.4 €/MWh for e-ammonia.
In addition to wave power, the system would incorporate 2 GWhcap of battery storage and 50 GWh of underground rock cavern hydrogen storage, further enhancing the energy hub's capacity and flexibility. These costs, assumed for 2050, are projected to be competitive compared to leading global sites, such as the Atacama Desert, which has excellent solar PV resources. For comparison, the Atacama Desert’s e-fuels production cost is estimated to range from 70-75 €/MWh, e-methanol is between 49-57 €/MWh and e-ammonia at 53 €/MWh.
However, the costs mentioned above do not include shipping costs. Shipping costs for ammonia for 10,000 km to East Asia could add up to 8 €/MWh, while shipping costs for methanol could add up to 4 €/MWh. For the Kerguelen Islands an attractive business model could be established to diversify the global e-fuels and e-chemicals production that may largely shift towards solar energy. This creates a promising opportunity for investment in a gigawatt-scale energy hub for e-fuels and e-chemicals on Kerguelen Islands, including the necessary infrastructure for shipping and workforce to maintain such a system. ...
The best wave energy resources are typically found far from land, especially in the far southern latitudes. However, these optimal locations often lie outside any single nation's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and are located in deep ocean waters, though a few places stand out, namely Kerguelen Islands, the southern coast of Chile and the southern tip of New Zealand. The Kerguelen Islands are situated in a prime wave energy location, with a potential capacity factor exceeding 90% when using best of breed point-absorber wave energy converters (WECs). This could result in a levelised cost of electricity of 31.4 €/MWh by 2050. An earlier study showed that the Kerguelen Islands could support up to 7 GW of installable wave power capacity, utilising only 15% of the EEZ.
To evaluate the feasibility of establishing an energy hub on Kerguelen Islands, a scenario was developed using the EnergyPLAN modelling software. The scenario involves producing e-fuels and e-chemicals, which will be essential for sectors like marine and aviation transportation and chemicals as the world transitions to a defossilised economy. This analysis assumes that the islands could supply fuel for East Asia, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. By 2050, the 7 GW wave power system could meet 3% of the demand for e-fuels and e-chemicals in these countries, producing 3.5 TWhth,LHV of e-kerosene, 2.6 TWhth,LHV of e-diesel, 19 TWhth,LHV of e-methanol, 2.5 TWhth,LHV of e-LNG, and 4.9 TWhth,LHV of e-ammonia. The cost projections for 2050 suggest that e-fuels and e-chemicals produced from Kerguelen Islands could be highly competitive, with projected costs of 95.0 €/MWh for e-kerosene and e-diesel, 78.7 €/MWh for e-methanol, 64.5 €/MWh for e-LNG, and 68.4 €/MWh for e-ammonia.
In addition to wave power, the system would incorporate 2 GWhcap of battery storage and 50 GWh of underground rock cavern hydrogen storage, further enhancing the energy hub's capacity and flexibility. These costs, assumed for 2050, are projected to be competitive compared to leading global sites, such as the Atacama Desert, which has excellent solar PV resources. For comparison, the Atacama Desert’s e-fuels production cost is estimated to range from 70-75 €/MWh, e-methanol is between 49-57 €/MWh and e-ammonia at 53 €/MWh.
However, the costs mentioned above do not include shipping costs. Shipping costs for ammonia for 10,000 km to East Asia could add up to 8 €/MWh, while shipping costs for methanol could add up to 4 €/MWh. For the Kerguelen Islands an attractive business model could be established to diversify the global e-fuels and e-chemicals production that may largely shift towards solar energy. This creates a promising opportunity for investment in a gigawatt-scale energy hub for e-fuels and e-chemicals on Kerguelen Islands, including the necessary infrastructure for shipping and workforce to maintain such a system.
To evaluate the feasibility of establishing an energy hub on Kerguelen Islands, a scenario was developed using the EnergyPLAN modelling software. The scenario involves producing e-fuels and e-chemicals, which will be essential for sectors like marine and aviation transportation and chemicals as the world transitions to a defossilised economy. This analysis assumes that the islands could supply fuel for East Asia, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. By 2050, the 7 GW wave power system could meet 3% of the demand for e-fuels and e-chemicals in these countries, producing 3.5 TWhth,LHV of e-kerosene, 2.6 TWhth,LHV of e-diesel, 19 TWhth,LHV of e-methanol, 2.5 TWhth,LHV of e-LNG, and 4.9 TWhth,LHV of e-ammonia. The cost projections for 2050 suggest that e-fuels and e-chemicals produced from Kerguelen Islands could be highly competitive, with projected costs of 95.0 €/MWh for e-kerosene and e-diesel, 78.7 €/MWh for e-methanol, 64.5 €/MWh for e-LNG, and 68.4 €/MWh for e-ammonia.
In addition to wave power, the system would incorporate 2 GWhcap of battery storage and 50 GWh of underground rock cavern hydrogen storage, further enhancing the energy hub's capacity and flexibility. These costs, assumed for 2050, are projected to be competitive compared to leading global sites, such as the Atacama Desert, which has excellent solar PV resources. For comparison, the Atacama Desert’s e-fuels production cost is estimated to range from 70-75 €/MWh, e-methanol is between 49-57 €/MWh and e-ammonia at 53 €/MWh.
However, the costs mentioned above do not include shipping costs. Shipping costs for ammonia for 10,000 km to East Asia could add up to 8 €/MWh, while shipping costs for methanol could add up to 4 €/MWh. For the Kerguelen Islands an attractive business model could be established to diversify the global e-fuels and e-chemicals production that may largely shift towards solar energy. This creates a promising opportunity for investment in a gigawatt-scale energy hub for e-fuels and e-chemicals on Kerguelen Islands, including the necessary infrastructure for shipping and workforce to maintain such a system.
This study examines the potential contribution of marine renewable generators in Greece, in order to achieve a 100% renewable energy system by 2050. Using PyPSA-Eur, a cost-optimization model of the European energy system, possible energy transition pathways are explored, across five-year intervals from 2030 to 2050. For each five-year target, a new cost assumption dataset is used, one that follows estimated cost reduction learning rates. This version of the model is called PyPSA-Eur-MREL, and is modified to include marine power generators, i.e. floating wind, wave, tidal and floating solar, but also high fidelity climate data, in the scale of 5.5 km
2 for wind and 4 km
2 for wave resources. Three different approaches were employed in this investigation: greenfield, generator constrained, and a high-load scenario inspired by Greece's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). The analysis focused on generator capacity and performance, the levels of utilization and availability of each energy carrier and the land-use impact of onshore and offshore generators. While the first two scenarios exhibit similar overall system capacities, they differ in land-use requirements, with the constrained case installing more bottom-fixed wind turbines (1.2 GW), thereby reducing land occupation. The high-load scenario introduces floating wind turbines (4.5 GW), however, the scale of onshore installations remains substantial, covering nearly one-third of Greece's total land area.
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This study examines the potential contribution of marine renewable generators in Greece, in order to achieve a 100% renewable energy system by 2050. Using PyPSA-Eur, a cost-optimization model of the European energy system, possible energy transition pathways are explored, across five-year intervals from 2030 to 2050. For each five-year target, a new cost assumption dataset is used, one that follows estimated cost reduction learning rates. This version of the model is called PyPSA-Eur-MREL, and is modified to include marine power generators, i.e. floating wind, wave, tidal and floating solar, but also high fidelity climate data, in the scale of 5.5 km 2 for wind and 4 km 2 for wave resources. Three different approaches were employed in this investigation: greenfield, generator constrained, and a high-load scenario inspired by Greece's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). The analysis focused on generator capacity and performance, the levels of utilization and availability of each energy carrier and the land-use impact of onshore and offshore generators. While the first two scenarios exhibit similar overall system capacities, they differ in land-use requirements, with the constrained case installing more bottom-fixed wind turbines (1.2 GW), thereby reducing land occupation. The high-load scenario introduces floating wind turbines (4.5 GW), however, the scale of onshore installations remains substantial, covering nearly one-third of Greece's total land area.
The increasing global demand for wind power underscores the importance of understanding and characterizing extreme ramp events, which are significant fluctuations in wind power generation over short periods that pose challenges for grid integration. This study focuses on modeling frontal low-level jets (FLLJs) and associated extreme ramp-down events, particularly their impact on wind power production at Belgium offshore wind farms. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we analyzed five cases of extreme wind power ramp-down events, including in-depth analysis of two cases and generalization of three additional cases. We assessed the sensitivity of various model configurations, including initial and boundary condition (IC/BC) datasets (ERA5 and CERRA), the activation of Fitch wind farm parameterization (WFP), planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, and single- versus nested-domain configuration. Our findings indicate that CERRA IC/BCs provide a superior representation of atmospheric flow compared to ERA5, resulting in more accurate predictions of ramp timing, intensity, and FLLJ characteristics. The WFP significantly impacts wind power output by modeling turbine interactions and wake effects, leading to slightly lower wind speeds. The scale-aware Shin and Hong PBL scheme yielded a stronger FLLJ core at higher altitudes with a more pronounced jet nose, although wind speeds below 200 m were lower compared to the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino 2.5 scheme. Single-domain configuration proved more effective in simulating wind power ramps but had higher core heights and higher wind speeds below 200 m, resulting in a diffused jet profile. Our analysis highlights that reliable simulation of extreme ramps associated with FLLJs using a single-domain configuration could reduce computational costs. Further, the FLLJs and associated extreme ramps can be predicted 1 d in advance, offering substantial benefits for operational efficiency in wind energy management.
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The increasing global demand for wind power underscores the importance of understanding and characterizing extreme ramp events, which are significant fluctuations in wind power generation over short periods that pose challenges for grid integration. This study focuses on modeling frontal low-level jets (FLLJs) and associated extreme ramp-down events, particularly their impact on wind power production at Belgium offshore wind farms. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we analyzed five cases of extreme wind power ramp-down events, including in-depth analysis of two cases and generalization of three additional cases. We assessed the sensitivity of various model configurations, including initial and boundary condition (IC/BC) datasets (ERA5 and CERRA), the activation of Fitch wind farm parameterization (WFP), planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, and single- versus nested-domain configuration. Our findings indicate that CERRA IC/BCs provide a superior representation of atmospheric flow compared to ERA5, resulting in more accurate predictions of ramp timing, intensity, and FLLJ characteristics. The WFP significantly impacts wind power output by modeling turbine interactions and wake effects, leading to slightly lower wind speeds. The scale-aware Shin and Hong PBL scheme yielded a stronger FLLJ core at higher altitudes with a more pronounced jet nose, although wind speeds below 200 m were lower compared to the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino 2.5 scheme. Single-domain configuration proved more effective in simulating wind power ramps but had higher core heights and higher wind speeds below 200 m, resulting in a diffused jet profile. Our analysis highlights that reliable simulation of extreme ramps associated with FLLJs using a single-domain configuration could reduce computational costs. Further, the FLLJs and associated extreme ramps can be predicted 1 d in advance, offering substantial benefits for operational efficiency in wind energy management.
Journal article
(2025)
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Chen Xi, Jian Tan, George Lavidas, Hongyi Jiang, Shengjie Rui, Yujie Jiang, Zhen Guo
A critical challenge to the practical deployment of wave energy converters (WECs) is their vulnerability to extreme wave loads. This study proposes a novel design for an oscillating body-WEC, called adjustable draft WEC (ADWEC), which aims to enhance resilience under extreme wave conditions while maintain extraction efficiency at normal sea states. The present numerical simulations focus on the interaction between regular extreme waves and ADWEC in both fixed and dynamic conditions. It is found that the excitation force is highly sensitive to wave nonlinearities, appearing as an asymmetric excitation force in the horizontal direction and a double-peak phenomenon in the vertical direction. Increasing the draft can significantly reduce vertical loads and heave motion, thereby enhancing survivability by mitigating impact forces and buoyancy fluctuations. A shallower draft allows for greater heave amplitude and higher energy conversion, particularly under short-period conditions. The present findings reveal that the draft of the ADWEC has significant effects on the wave loads, hydrodynamic performance and energy extraction, which provides guidance to the practical design of WECs for survivability.
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A critical challenge to the practical deployment of wave energy converters (WECs) is their vulnerability to extreme wave loads. This study proposes a novel design for an oscillating body-WEC, called adjustable draft WEC (ADWEC), which aims to enhance resilience under extreme wave conditions while maintain extraction efficiency at normal sea states. The present numerical simulations focus on the interaction between regular extreme waves and ADWEC in both fixed and dynamic conditions. It is found that the excitation force is highly sensitive to wave nonlinearities, appearing as an asymmetric excitation force in the horizontal direction and a double-peak phenomenon in the vertical direction. Increasing the draft can significantly reduce vertical loads and heave motion, thereby enhancing survivability by mitigating impact forces and buoyancy fluctuations. A shallower draft allows for greater heave amplitude and higher energy conversion, particularly under short-period conditions. The present findings reveal that the draft of the ADWEC has significant effects on the wave loads, hydrodynamic performance and energy extraction, which provides guidance to the practical design of WECs for survivability.
This study presents a first long term (30 years) assessment to quantify the effects of both, the wave spectrum representation, and occurrences of multi-modal sea states, on power production estimations from a point-absorber Wave Energy Converter (WEC). Analysis in 3 different offshore locations (Portugal, Ireland and The Netherlands) is included to ensure robustness of results. In general, traditional methods based on the use of the JONSWAP spectrum, with an adequate gamma shape value, can lead to mean overestimation in yearly power production >12% when compared to reference hindcast spectral data. This can be partially reduced when capping is applied to power production, but still can be close to 10%. An alternative method is proposed to modulate the JONSWAP spectrum at each time step which helps to reduce differences, but leads to slight yearly underestimations (−2.5 to −5% in average). Although in all analyzed sites the occurrences of multi-modal spectra is >30%, contribution to errors due to misrepresentation of these sea states are estimated to be of about 2.5%. These findings provide valuable insights on the uncertainties introduced in power production estimations, related to wave conditions characterization, that can have important economic impact when planning for large scale deployments.
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This study presents a first long term (30 years) assessment to quantify the effects of both, the wave spectrum representation, and occurrences of multi-modal sea states, on power production estimations from a point-absorber Wave Energy Converter (WEC). Analysis in 3 different offshore locations (Portugal, Ireland and The Netherlands) is included to ensure robustness of results. In general, traditional methods based on the use of the JONSWAP spectrum, with an adequate gamma shape value, can lead to mean overestimation in yearly power production >12% when compared to reference hindcast spectral data. This can be partially reduced when capping is applied to power production, but still can be close to 10%. An alternative method is proposed to modulate the JONSWAP spectrum at each time step which helps to reduce differences, but leads to slight yearly underestimations (−2.5 to −5% in average). Although in all analyzed sites the occurrences of multi-modal spectra is >30%, contribution to errors due to misrepresentation of these sea states are estimated to be of about 2.5%. These findings provide valuable insights on the uncertainties introduced in power production estimations, related to wave conditions characterization, that can have important economic impact when planning for large scale deployments.
This article investigates the methodology and applicability of the statistical linearization (SL) method to incorporating multi-variate non-differentiable nonlinearities, with a focus on floating renewable energy devices. The SL method serves as a highly competitive approach for analyzing floating renewable energy structures, such as wave energy converters (WECs) and floating wind energy turbines, because it inherently combines adequate accuracy and high computational efficiency. The origin of high accuracy comes from its incorporation of nonlinear effects through statistically linearized representations. Yet, the statistically linearized solutions have only been derived and verified for a limited number of nonlinearities of floating renewable energy devices, mostly simply-formed and differentiable in their mathematical expressions. However, floating renewable energy devices usually exhibit a complex dynamic mechanism, in which the relevant nonlinear effects could appear to be highly complex for linearization process to describe. These nonlinear effects could make a significant impact on the system dynamics, exemplified by external machinery force saturation and nonlinear hydrostatics of floaters with a non-uniform geometry. To push forward the boundary of the SL method, it is crucial to demonstrate how it applies to nonlinearities of different features. In this paper, the existing SL method is extended to address the nonlinear effects expressed as multi-variate non-differentiable functions. Several case studies are carried out to exemplify the application of the extended SL approach to the concerned nonlinearities in floating renewable energy devices. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the extended SL approach are evaluated by verifying against the corresponding nonlinear time-domain (TD) and linear frequency-domain (FD) models. Despite the complexity of the given nonlinearities, the relative errors of the SL approach are no more than 6 % while its computational time is comparable to the FD model, being thousands of times faster than the TD model. Comparatively, the FD model leads to a relative error of over 70% in some cases.
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This article investigates the methodology and applicability of the statistical linearization (SL) method to incorporating multi-variate non-differentiable nonlinearities, with a focus on floating renewable energy devices. The SL method serves as a highly competitive approach for analyzing floating renewable energy structures, such as wave energy converters (WECs) and floating wind energy turbines, because it inherently combines adequate accuracy and high computational efficiency. The origin of high accuracy comes from its incorporation of nonlinear effects through statistically linearized representations. Yet, the statistically linearized solutions have only been derived and verified for a limited number of nonlinearities of floating renewable energy devices, mostly simply-formed and differentiable in their mathematical expressions. However, floating renewable energy devices usually exhibit a complex dynamic mechanism, in which the relevant nonlinear effects could appear to be highly complex for linearization process to describe. These nonlinear effects could make a significant impact on the system dynamics, exemplified by external machinery force saturation and nonlinear hydrostatics of floaters with a non-uniform geometry. To push forward the boundary of the SL method, it is crucial to demonstrate how it applies to nonlinearities of different features. In this paper, the existing SL method is extended to address the nonlinear effects expressed as multi-variate non-differentiable functions. Several case studies are carried out to exemplify the application of the extended SL approach to the concerned nonlinearities in floating renewable energy devices. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the extended SL approach are evaluated by verifying against the corresponding nonlinear time-domain (TD) and linear frequency-domain (FD) models. Despite the complexity of the given nonlinearities, the relative errors of the SL approach are no more than 6 % while its computational time is comparable to the FD model, being thousands of times faster than the TD model. Comparatively, the FD model leads to a relative error of over 70% in some cases.