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J.N. Quist

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Journal article (2026) - Tom van der Voorn, Jaco Quist, Derk Loorbach
<p>Climate change has become one of the biggest environmental challenges the world is currently facing. Recent IPCC projections indicate that climate change impacts will increase as current incremental-based adaptation management approaches are insufficient to deal with climate-induced systemic shocks and climate uncertainties. Despite the use of advanced climate impact assessment models, some uncertainty about the nature, scale and dynamics of these impacts on water systems remain persistent. Due to this uncertainty and the complexity of these systems, a shift to transformative water management, building on transformative adaptation, is needed to accommodate disruptive futures and transformative change. We cannot rely solely on predictive forward-looking approaches that generate likely futures, which argues in favor of the complementary use of normative approaches. Backcasting is such an approach that produces desirable futures, before looking back from these futures to the present in order to develop adaptation pathways that could lead to such desirable futures. Backcasting can provide directionality to transformative change, which can guide actions and small incremental, gradual steps towards transformative change, enabling to explore a diversity of possible adaptation pathways and pathway switching, but more effort is needed to further advance backcasting for transformative water management. Based on recent insights on both transformative adaptation and the use of backcasting for climate adaptation, this paper proposes nine principles for advancing backcasting for transformative water management.</p> ...

Conflicts and survival tactics of gamified sustainable consumption app creators

Journal article (2025) - Georgina Guillén, Juho Hamari, Jaco Quist
Purpose – This study aims to increase our understanding of the value and ethical conflicts faced by sustainable consumption app (SCA) creators when applying gamification to support individual sustainability practices. The results include practical strategies and recommendations toward responsible innovation and sustainable human–computer interaction. Design/methodology/approach – This study consists of semi-structured interviews with 21 SCA creators, an online survey on moral foundations and thematic mapping. Findings – The apps’ content, expected impact, managerial issues and external aspects influencing their survival emerged as the four areas across which resources, the creators’ intentions, growth and trust-building strategies and gamification as a value destroyer and source of ethical tensions represent the main conflict areas. These tensions comprise engagement vs individual agency loss; third-party involvement and partnerships; rewards vs oversimplification; mandatory use vs personal drive; current knowledge vs further education; learning from others; stakeholders’ risks; experience vs unwanted outcomes and the meaning of value and collaborative design. The strategies to address these represent responsible innovation practices and are this study’s main contribution. Research limitations/implications – Including insights from non-European SCA creators and users could help identify additional opportunities for SCAs to meet their objectives. Originality/value – While studies on SCAs from the user perspective are abundant, this study takes the creators’ perspective to understand the dilemmas behind such tools. Focusing on ethical concerns and the value of gamification as a strategy to achieve the apps’ objectives offers a unique perspective for improving some of the most popular tools that enable sustainable consumption. ...
Journal article (2025) - Muhammad Indra al Irsyad, J.N. Quist, Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayuc, K. Blok
In this study participatory backcasting was refined to combine the use of existing visions in combination with stakeholder engagement and road-mapping and applied to the regional energy transition in Indonesia’s South Kalimantan Province, where the gross regional domestic product strongly depends on coal mining. Based on document analysis, interviews, consultations, and a focus group discussion, we determined necessary changes, driving factors and challenges, and co-created a roadmap towards the preferred Net Zero Emission vision. The roadmap proposes: (1) to increase the capacity of renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, along with battery energy storage systems; (2) to transform economic activities currently based on coal towards bioenergy hubs and to build a regional economy based on renewable energy; (3) to enhance the quality of data on renewable energy potential, power grid flexibility, and variable renewable plants, and (4) to shift culture and behaviour towards energy saving, energy communities, electrification of lifestyles, and the use of renewable energy in industry. Our study contributes to the literature on participatory backcasting by a case on the clean energy transition in fossil fuelrich nations in the Global South and advances backcasting by using existing visions instead of generating one or several new visions. ...
Journal article (2025) - Ryu Koide, Shinsuke Murakami, Haruhisa Yamamoto, Keisuke Nansai, Jaco Quist, Emile Chappin
Despite the need for methodologies that support early-phase decision-making in the transition to a circular economy, current sustainability assessments often lack a prospective method that dynamically accounts for consumer decision-making based on empirical evidence. This study addresses this need by evaluating the circularity and environmental impacts of circular business models over a 30-year period, using an empirically grounded agent-based model coupled with life cycle assessment and material flow analysis. We developed a methodology to parameterize agents’ decision-making using data from demographically representative surveys and to prospectively assess the sustainability impacts of circular strategies. The case study examines the reuse, refurbishment, and subscription models of refrigerators and laptops in Japan. Results from Morris Elementary effects method and scenario analyses revealed that manufacturer-led refurbishment could reduce emissions of the whole society by 10%–12% and extend product lifetimes by 30%–33%. In contrast, the subscription model shows minimal benefits, with improvements of only 0%–3%, primarily due to consumer preferences for new products. Our consequential approach extends beyond technical strategies to evaluate the effectiveness of strategies targeting consumer behavior, including pricing, advertisements, and improvements in repair and collection services. The findings highlight the need for combining synergistic circular and diffusion strategies and suggest the need for a reorientation of policy efforts from end-of-life material recovery to refurbishment, reuse, and repair, supported by intensive campaigns and substantial price reductions in circular offerings. The methodology presented here facilitates prospective, dynamic, and consequential assessments of circular economy strategies to enhance consumer acceptance and ensure sustainability gains. ...

A sociotechnical multi-system event sequence analysis

Journal article (2025) - Jerico Bakhuis, Jaco Quist, Wouter Spekkink, Thomas Hoppe, Kornelis Blok
Hydrogen is considered a promising energy carrier that can potentially contribute to low-carbon energy systems and achieving climate goals. Its introduction, however, is complex, involving multiple emerging niches and developments across various sociotechnical systems. Despite its significance, the multi-system nature of hydrogen has received limited attention in sustainability transition scholarship. This paper addresses this knowledge gap by examining the emerging hydrogen transition in the Netherlands from a multi-system sociotechnical perspective. To achieve this, we adopted a framework that considers multiple niches and sociotechnical systems in parallel, using Event Sequence Analysis (ESA). The analysis provides a systematic reconstruction of (niche-)processes as networks of events for analysing hydrogen niche formation from 2001 to 2020 across four sociotechnical systems: industry, electricity, transport, and the built environment. The results reveal that, despite positive discourse and ambitious plans, investments and implementation remained limited. We provide possible explanations for this progress through a multi-system lens. ...

A design framework towards a users’ guide

Journal article (2024) - Yusuke Kishita, Mattias Höjer, Jaco Quist
Backcasting has become a widely applied approach to address sustainability challenges when transformative changes are required. However, dispersed and contextualized knowledge of backcasting methodologies and practices needs to be systematized, codified, and synthesized to support researchers, commissioners, practitioners, and stakeholders in backcasting projects. In this paper, we address these issues by (i) concisely reviewing the evolution and current body of literature on backcasting and how this relates to other major types of futures and scenario studies and (ii) developing a design framework for researchers and practitioners that systematically covers all methodological choices with regard to key guiding questions to develop a backcasting methodology for a particular backcasting project. The developed design framework is based on four parts, characterized by the interrogatives when, which, how, and what, creating a comprehensive framework for describing a backcasting study. ...
Journal article (2024) - Joline C. Frens, Geertje Bekebrede, Jaco Quist
In order to support transition to a circular economy, visions and strategies need to be developed for which participatory backcasting can be used. This paper reports on the effects of using serious games as a possible supporting (social) engagement and design tool for vision development in participatory backcasting and has been applied to circular business and industry parks. In order to test the effects on (social) engagement, a new framework was developed and used to evaluate engagement by measuring the game experience, perceived influence, and learning, as well as the social connections within these constructs. The effect of the vision design was measured using participant satisfaction and a vision analysis, identifying transformative elements and guiding goals and targets. The results show that a serious game is a suitable tool to support (social) engagement in participatory backcasting. As a design tool, it is suitable for the development of transformative elements, but the used game was not able to create guiding goals and targets. ...
Journal article (2024) - Arnold Tukker, Renzo Akkerman, Antoine Heideveld, Jaco Quist, Ruben Vrijhoef, Cees Withagen, Mark Beumer
The circular economy (CE) is heralded as reducing material use and emissions while providing more jobs and growth. We explored this narrative in a series of expert workshops, basing ourselves on theories, methods and findings from science fields such as global environmental input-output analysis, business modelling, industrial organisation, innovation sciences and transition studies. Our findings indicate that this dominant narrative suffers from at least three inconvenient truths. First, CE can lead to loss of GDP. Each doubling of product lifetimes will halve the related industrial production, while the required design changes may cost little. Second, the same mechanism can create losses of production jobs. This may not be compensated by extra maintenance, repair or refurbishing activities. Finally, ‘Product-as-a-Service’ business models supported by platform technologies are crucial for a CE transition. But by transforming consumers from owners to users, they lose independence and do not share in any value enhancement of assets (e.g., houses). As shown by Uber and AirBNB, platforms tend to concentrate power and value with providers, dramatically affecting the distribution of wealth. The real win-win potential of circularity is that the same societal welfare may be achieved with less production and fewer working hours, resulting in more leisure time. But it is perfectly possible that powerful platform providers capture most added value and channel that to their elite owners, at the expense of the purchasing power of ordinary people working fewer hours. Similar undesirable distributional effects may occur at the global scale: the service economies in the Global North may benefit from the additional repair and refurbishment activities, while economies in the Global South that are more oriented towards primary production will see these activities shrink. It is essential that CE research comes to grips with such effects. Furthermore, governance approaches mitigating unfair distribution of power and value are hence essential for a successful circularity transition. ...
Journal article (2023) - J.K.A. Langer, Z. Roosenboom-Kwee, Y. Zhou, O. Isabella, Ziad Ashqar, J.N. Quist, Aaron Praktiknjo, K. Blok
Geospatial analysis is useful for mapping the potential of renewables like solar PV. However, recent studies do not address PV’s bankable potential for which project financing can be secured. This paper proposes a framework that incorporates project finance into geospatial analyses to obtain the bankable potential of renewables. We demonstrate our framework for Indonesia, and compare the bankable potential with the socio-economic potential mostly used in literature. Using average inputs On average, the technical potential is 12,200 TWh/year and the socio-economic potential is 152.7 TWh/year if capped by 2030 demand (34% coverage). Considering PV’s financing risks, PV’s bankable potential is 16.0 TWh under current conditions if capped by 2030 demand (3.6% coverage). Both economic potentials are mainly in East Indonesia and absent on Java due to tariffs and land availability. For the bankable potential, the risk perception by banks and investors is another key influence. With a feed-in tariff of 11.5 US¢(2021)/kWh and temporary lift of import restrictions, the bankable potential is 23 TWh if capped by 2030 demand (5.2% coverage) and spreads to Java. For more widespread bankability, additional temporary measures are recommended until the PV’s costs have decreased further and trust by financial institutions has increased. ...
Journal article (2023) - Tom van der Voorn, Jaco Quist, Åsa Svenfelt, Kasper Kok, Robin Hickman, Stephen Sheppard, Annika Carlsson Kanyama, David Banister
In the face of climate change, a major challenge is to inform and guide long-term climate change adaptation planning under deep uncertainty, while aiming at transformative change. Normative futures studies approaches, such as participatory backcasting, visioning and transition management, are increasingly applied, but their potential for climate change adaptation research and practice remains undervalued. This paper aims to advance the potential of backcasting in climate adaptation, by comparing various climate change adaptation studies that have used backcasting or visioning approaches. A framework has been further developed and applied to evaluate 10 cases in Africa, Europe and North America, using four dimensions: (i) inputs and settings; (ii) process and methods (iii) results, and (iv), impact. Our evaluation provides key insights into the use and further development of backcasting for climate adaptation. Key elements to add are advanced system modeling, robust elements, pathway switching and hybrid pathways, enhancing participation of marginal groups, and contributing to impact by facilitating the utilization of results and knowledge in practice and decision making. ...
Journal article (2022) - J.K.A. Langer, C.A. Infante Ferreira, J.N. Quist
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) produces electricity using the temperature difference between warm surface and cold deep-sea water. OTEC systems in literature only limitedly consider seasonal seawater temperature
variations and thus might not be adequately sized for off-design conditions. This potentially leads to techno-economically sub-optimal design choices. This paper sheds light on which design approach yields the most economically feasible OTEC system considering off-design conditions with 19 years of seawater temperature data in 3-h time steps. We find that systems sized for worst-case thermal resources yield the highest and steadiest electricity production. If seawater temperature variations are moderate, these systems also perform best economically in terms of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). We demonstrate our model for a 136 MWgross plant in Ende, Indonesia, with an LCOE of 15.12 US¢(2021)/kWh against a local electricity tariff of 15.77 US¢(2021)/kWh. The model is validated for different cost assumptions, system sizes, and temperature profiles to be useful globally. We give recommendations to curb costs and to move large-scale OTEC closer to today’s state of the art,
e.g. by using multiple smaller seawater pipes instead of few large pipes. The model is useful to prove OTEC’s global economic feasibility and to promote the technology’s commercialisation. ...
Journal article (2022) - Abidah B. Setyowati, Jaco Quist
Transitioning to low carbon energy involves policies, institutions, and actors across different scales of governance. Indonesia's aspiration for a transition to low carbon energy is occurring in the dynamics of the re-scaling of environmental governance through decentralization processes. This article examines the interplays of actors at the national and provincial levels in negotiating energy futures as the energy planning processes unfold on the ground and identifies context specific factors that shape the outcomes. Further, it investigates how the regulatory framework and institutional arrangements for energy transition planning could not only generate obstacles for renewable energy transition but also open opportunities for actions. It is based on interviews with stakeholders at national and subnational levels, combined with the analysis of policy documents, studies, and relevant reports. The findings reveal emerging spaces for local actions amid constraining regulatory and institutional fields through the process of regional energy plan development. However, the ability of sub-national actors to seize these spaces is influenced by several factors, most notably political leadership, civil society engagement, political economic structure and power relations. These in-depth insights from Indonesia have wider implications for understanding the multi-scalar dynamics of energy transitions and provide useful policy recommendations for engaging subnational actors in the transition process. ...
Conference paper (2022) - Georgina M. Guillén, Daniel Fernández Galeote, Nevena Sicevic, Juho Hamari, Jaco Quist
Mobile apps are ubiquitous, affecting our everyday practices because “there is always an app for that”. In this vein, there have been a significant number of apps devised to support people’s lifestyles to make them more sustainable. This study aims to draw an overview of gamified mobile apps for sustainable consumption. Following a systematic process, this study analyzes 67 gamified apps’ sustainability approaches and gamification concepts. It was found that (1) sustainable consumption is generally presented as the efficient use of resources to impact the environment positively, rarely addressing societal impacts or economic gains from shifting consumption practices. Other findings include (2) a lack of diversity in gamification characteristics, given the prevalence of direct communication with the user, the absence of virtual identities, and most apps targeting behavior change without attitude change. A potentially problematic design choice is (3) the presence, in some cases, of external rewards that are often contradictory to the message of sustainable consumption as they lead to more consumption. Nonetheless, based on most apps embedding sustainable consumption activities in the gamification concept and having a large number of users, it is possible to conclude that gamification has the potential to motivate shifts in their users’ lifestyles. ...
The current focus of offshore wind industry and academia lies on regions with strong winds, neglecting areas with mild resources. Photovoltaics' cost reductions have shown that even mild resources can be harnessed economically, especially where electricity prices are high. Here, we study the technical and economic potential of offshore wind power in Indonesia as an example of mild-resource areas, using bias-corrected ERA5 data, turbine-specific power curves, and a detailed cost model. We show that low-wind-speed turbines could produce up to 6,816 TWh/year, which is 25 times Indonesia's electricity generation in 2018 and 3 times the projected 2050 generation, and up to 166 PWh/year globally. Although not yet competitive against current offshore turbines, low-wind turbines could become a crucial piece of the global climate mitigation effort in regions with vast marine areas and high electricity prices. As low-wind-speed turbines are not yet on the market, we recommend prioritizing their development. ...
Journal article (2022) - J.K.A. Langer, M B Zaaijer, J.N. Quist, K. Blok
Onshore wind potentials are commonly mapped with site selection criteria that either fully include or exclude land for wind farms. However, current research rarely addresses the variability of these criteria, possibly resulting in overly conservative or optimistic potentials. This paper proposes a method to account for the variability of site selection criteria in resource assessments. We distinguish between static and flexible, non-binary criteria and assess onshore wind's technical and economic potential with bias-corrected ERA5 data, 28 turbine power curves, and a turbine-specific cost model. For Indonesia, we show that our flexible mapping approach improves the transparency of resource potential assessments and could contribute to more informed and useful recommendations. These recommendations could address the (1) calibration of site exclusion thresholds, (2) dilemmas of preferring one land type over others, (3) location-specific challenges of wind farm deployment, and (4) more direct support schemes for affected stakeholders and wind farm operators.. We report a technical potential of 207–1,994 TWh/year in Indonesia, which could cover more than 50% of 2030 electricity demand on all islands. LCOEs range between 5.8 and 24.5 US¢(2021)/kWh with an economic potential of 16 TWh/year, which improves to 31–212 TWh/year with a carbon tax of 100 US$(2021)/tCO2e. ...

Drawing lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for advancing sustainable development

Journal article (2022) - Tom van der Voorn, Caroline van den Berg, Jaco Quist, Kasper Kok
The current COVID-19 pandemic has affected societies across the world while its economic impact has cut deeper than any recession since the Second World War. Climate change is potentially an even more disruptive and complex global challenge. Climate change could cause social and economic damage far larger than that caused by COVID-19. The current pandemic has highlighted the extent to which societies need to prepare for disruptive global environmental crises. Although the dynamics of combating COVID-19 and climate change are different, the priorities for action are the same: behavioral change, international cooperation to manage shared challenges, and technology's role in advancing solutions. For a sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 crisis to be durable and resilient, a return to ‘business as usual’ and the subsequent often environmentally destructive economic activities must be avoided as they have significantly contributed to climate change. To avoid this, we draw lessons from the experiences of the waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond to advance sustainable development. ...
Journal article (2022) - J.K.A. Langer, Jaco Quist, Kornelis Blok
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is a promising renewable energy technology that is the most economical at large scale. But contemporary literature does not address how OTEC could reach such scale with current technology, and what the techno-economic impact of location-dependent factors and technological learning are. This paper tackles these issues by simulating OTEC's upscaling with a model that implements OTEC to meet local electricity demand and extrapolates to the global relevance of OTEC. The model uses a learning rate for investment costs and cost of finance. This study shows that up to 45 GW of OTEC capacity can be installed in Indonesia with national demand coverage of 22% in 2050. Even with small cost reduction rates, OTEC could be profitable and cost-competitive against other power generation technologies with an aggregated Net Present Value (NPV) of up to US$ 23 billion. OTEC's upscaling could be funded via state budget reallocation or international financial institutions, e.g. via the feed-in tariff suggested in the paper. However, large-scale OTEC is only feasible in regions with high electricity demand and until that size is reached, upscaling must be coordinated globally, e.g. with the proposed upscaling strategy. To contribute to the global energy transition, OTEC needs to grow by 28% per year, a rate similar to wind power and solar PV. This paper provides good reasons to fight for the attention of global decision makers and future research could focus on refining the concepts of this study. ...

The effect of COVID-19 on the adoption of use-oriented product-service systems

Journal article (2021) - Janine Fleith de Medeiros, Arthur Marcon, Jose Luis Duarte Ribeiro, Jaco Quist, Andressa D'Agostin
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to widely change how consumers evaluate market offerings. In this research, we identified consumers’ emotions on the adoption of use-oriented Product-Service-Systems (PSS) and the effect of COVID-19 on such emotions using pre- and amid-COVID-19 samples. The results indicate that positive emotions are generally more associated with the process of adopting use-oriented PSS. However, the negative effect of COVID-19 on emotions influencing the decision to use the PSS is significant. We found that during the pandemic, consumers moved from the positive side of emotions to the more negative one. The emotions with the highest frequencies in pre-COVID-19 data collection (sympathy, joy, and peacefulness) suffered a significant descent effect due to the pandemic. Also, negative emotions such as fear, shame, and guilt, which were already present in the pre-COVID-19 phase, showed an increase in manifestations in the amid-COVID-19 sample. COVID-19 has increased self-interest in people, and emotions that predict altruism and concern for society were affected. We also found that previous use experience as well as gender and education do not significantly moderate the effect of COVID-19 on consumption emotions, although these demographic variables have been confirmed in other studies as important moderators in pro-environmental consumption. Finally, the results demonstrated that younger people (between 18 and 24 years old) tend to be more impacted by pandemic. Theoretically, our study contributes (1) by using an emotions scale specifically developed for consumption situations, allowing to assess a greater amount of emotions, (2) by analysing basic emotions, in addition to the self-conscious ones, that interfere in the adoption of use-oriented PSS, and (3) by confirming that an external traumatic event alters consumption-related emotions. ...

Drawing First Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic to Tackle the Water Crisis

Journal article (2021) - Tom Van Der Voorn, Caroline Van Den Berg, Prosun Bhattacharya, Jaco Quist