Managing energy transitions in developing countries is essential to ensuring a stable and affordable energy supply for both society and industry. The social, economic, and environmental impacts of this transition are typically assessed using various energy models, with dynamic system approaches providing a more comprehensive representation than conventional methods. This study presents an Indonesia's energy system dynamics model, co-developed with key stakeholders—including experts from technical ministries, research institutions, NGOs, and energy companies—to evaluate energy security policies. A participatory approach enabled stakeholders to define the model's structure, select data, formulate policy scenarios, and assess simulation outcomes through meetings and focus group discussions, ensuring transparency and credibility. Stakeholders also play a crucial role in implementing scenario analyses and simulation insights. Notably, they emphasize the importance of maintaining fossil fuel supplies toward energy security, highlighting that policy modeling in Indonesia cannot overlook fossil fuel considerations. The resulting Participatory Energy System Dynamics Model (P/ESDM) integrates five interconnected sub-models: Demography and Macroeconomics, Final Energy Demand and Total Emissions, Total Energy Supply, Policy Interventions, and Impact Assessments. P/ESDM was applied to simulate eight policy scenarios, including oil production strategies, crude oil export restrictions, refinery capacity expansion, electric vehicle promotion, biodiesel blend mandates, renewable energy capacity expansion, coal production management, and urban gas network development. Policy implications are derived from simulation results, and the model offers adaptability for other nations pursuing energy security.

In this study participatory backcasting was refined to combine the use of existing visions in combination with stakeholder engagement and road-mapping and applied to the regional energy transition in Indonesia’s South Kalimantan Province, where the gross regional domestic product strongly depends on coal mining. Based on document analysis, interviews, consultations, and a focus group discussion, we determined necessary changes, driving factors and challenges, and co-created a roadmap towards the preferred Net Zero Emission vision. The roadmap proposes: (1) to increase the capacity of renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, along with battery energy storage systems; (2) to transform economic activities currently based on coal towards bioenergy hubs and to build a regional economy based on renewable energy; (3) to enhance the quality of data on renewable energy potential, power grid flexibility, and variable renewable plants, and (4) to shift culture and behaviour towards energy saving, energy communities, electrification of lifestyles, and the use of renewable energy in industry. Our study contributes to the literature on participatory backcasting by a case on the clean energy transition in fossil fuelrich nations in the Global South and advances backcasting by using existing visions instead of generating one or several new visions.

Indonesia has committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2060, with emphasis on the electricity sector eliminating harmful gas emissions by that year. Using the Balmorel energy model, this study simulated the impact of the target on optimal capacity expansion, electricity production mix, emissions, and electricity supply costs across 230 grid systems. The results indicate the substantial benefits of integrating solar photovoltaics (PV) and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). Solar energy sees a remarkable capacity increase, reaching 288.7 GWp by 2060. Other renewable sources, including hydro and wind energies, also exhibited significant growth, increasing from 6.2 GW and 130 MW in 2030 to 29.4 GW and 22.5 GW, respectively, by 2060. Intermittent renewables’ growth necessitates a rise in BESS capacity from 1 MW in 2022 to 73.4 GW by 2060. The study also underscores to replace phased-out coal-fired power plants with nuclear power by 2060. The study concludes with policy implications arising from these findings.