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Iain Staffell
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1
Examining pathways for a climate neutral Europe by 2050
A model comparison analysis including integrated assessment models and energy system models
Journal article
(2025)
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Efstratios Mikropoulos, Mark Roelfsema, Hsing Hsuan Chen, Iain Staffell, Gabriel Oreggioni, Dan Hdidouan, Jakob Zinck Thellufsen, Miguel Antonio Chang, Stefan Pfenninger, More Authors...
The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less common due to the complex nature of climate and energy modelling. Our study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target. Both scenarios project reduced final energy consumption by 2050, driven by increased electrification and decreased fossil fuel usage. Electricity consumption increases driven by electrification despite the improved efficiency of electrified technologies. Models align on a shift toward renewables but diverge in technology and fuel choices, reflecting various approaches to reach net-zero energy systems. Furthermore, trade-offs between energy demand and supply mitigation strategies, as well as between renewable energy, e-fuels, and CCS technologies are identified. Considering these model variations, our study highlights the importance of consistent model comparison to offer reliable recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. We conclude that model diversity is a valuable asset when used sensibly.
...
The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less common due to the complex nature of climate and energy modelling. Our study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target. Both scenarios project reduced final energy consumption by 2050, driven by increased electrification and decreased fossil fuel usage. Electricity consumption increases driven by electrification despite the improved efficiency of electrified technologies. Models align on a shift toward renewables but diverge in technology and fuel choices, reflecting various approaches to reach net-zero energy systems. Furthermore, trade-offs between energy demand and supply mitigation strategies, as well as between renewable energy, e-fuels, and CCS technologies are identified. Considering these model variations, our study highlights the importance of consistent model comparison to offer reliable recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. We conclude that model diversity is a valuable asset when used sensibly.
Author Correction
A global model of hourly space heating and cooling demand at multiple spatial scales (Nature Energy, (2023), 8, 12, (1328-1344), 10.1038/s41560-023-01341-5)
Correction to: Nature Energyhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01341-5, published online 14 September 2023. In the version of this article initially published, there was a typographical error in the third term of equation (2) in the Methods section, which now reads “S
* = 100 + 7T, W
* = 4.5 – 0.025T, H
* = e
1.1+0.06T, T
* = 16”, where e
1.1+0.06T appeared originally as e
1.1+0.6T. This error was in presentation only and does not affect the results or source code. The equation has been amended in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.
...
Correction to: Nature Energyhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01341-5, published online 14 September 2023. In the version of this article initially published, there was a typographical error in the third term of equation (2) in the Methods section, which now reads “S * = 100 + 7T, W * = 4.5 – 0.025T, H * = e 1.1+0.06T, T * = 16”, where e 1.1+0.06T appeared originally as e 1.1+0.6T. This error was in presentation only and does not affect the results or source code. The equation has been amended in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.
Wind-solar technological, spatial and temporal complementarities in Europe
A portfolio approach
Journal article
(2024)
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Javier López Prol, Fernando de Llano Paz, Anxo Calvo-Silvosa, Stefan Pfenninger, Iain Staffell
Climate change and geopolitical risks call for the rapid transformation of electricity systems worldwide, with Europe at the forefront. Wind and solar are the lowest cost, lowest risk, and cleanest energy sources, but their variability poses integration challenges. Combining both technologies and integrating regions with dissimilar generation patterns optimizes the trade-off between maximizing energy output and minimizing its variability, which respectively give the lowest levelized cost and lowest integration cost. We apply the Markowitz mean-variance framework to a rich multi-decade dataset of wind and solar productivity to quantify the potential benefits of spatially integration of renewables across European countries at hourly, daily and monthly timescales. We find that optimal cross-country coordination of wind and solar capacities across Europe's integrated electricity system increases capacity factor by 22% while reducing hourly variability by 26%. We show limited benefits to solar integration due to consistent output profiles across Europe. Greater wind integration yields larger benefits due to the diversity of regional weather patterns. This framework shows the importance of considering renewable projects not in isolation, but as interconnected parts of a pan-continental system. Our results can guide policymakers towards strategic energy plans that reduce system-wide costs of renewable electricity, accelerating the clean energy transition.
...
Climate change and geopolitical risks call for the rapid transformation of electricity systems worldwide, with Europe at the forefront. Wind and solar are the lowest cost, lowest risk, and cleanest energy sources, but their variability poses integration challenges. Combining both technologies and integrating regions with dissimilar generation patterns optimizes the trade-off between maximizing energy output and minimizing its variability, which respectively give the lowest levelized cost and lowest integration cost. We apply the Markowitz mean-variance framework to a rich multi-decade dataset of wind and solar productivity to quantify the potential benefits of spatially integration of renewables across European countries at hourly, daily and monthly timescales. We find that optimal cross-country coordination of wind and solar capacities across Europe's integrated electricity system increases capacity factor by 22% while reducing hourly variability by 26%. We show limited benefits to solar integration due to consistent output profiles across Europe. Greater wind integration yields larger benefits due to the diversity of regional weather patterns. This framework shows the importance of considering renewable projects not in isolation, but as interconnected parts of a pan-continental system. Our results can guide policymakers towards strategic energy plans that reduce system-wide costs of renewable electricity, accelerating the clean energy transition.
Journal article
(2024)
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Javier López Prol, Fernando deLlano-Paz, Anxo Calvo-Silvosa, Stefan Pfenninger, Iain Staffell
Wind power has considerable potential to decarbonise electricity systems due to its low cost and wide availability. However, its variability is one factor limiting uptake. We propose a simple analytical framework to optimise the distribution of wind capacity across regions to achieve a maximally firm or load-following profile. We develop a novel dataset of simulated hourly wind capacity factors (CFs) with bias correction for 111 Chinese provinces, European countries and US states spanning ten years (∼10 million observations). This flexible framework allows for near-optimal analysis, integration of demand, and consideration of additional decision criteria without additional modelling. We find that spatial integration of wind resources optimising the distribution of capacities provides significant benefits in terms of higher CF or lower residual load and lower variability at sub-, quasi- and inter-continental levels. We employ the concept of firmness as achieving a reliable and certain generation profile and show that, in the best case, the intercontinental interconnection between China, Europe and the US could restrict wind CFs to within the range of 15%–40% for 99% of the time. Smaller configurations corresponding to existing electricity markets also provide more certain and reliable generation profiles than isolated individual regions.
...
Wind power has considerable potential to decarbonise electricity systems due to its low cost and wide availability. However, its variability is one factor limiting uptake. We propose a simple analytical framework to optimise the distribution of wind capacity across regions to achieve a maximally firm or load-following profile. We develop a novel dataset of simulated hourly wind capacity factors (CFs) with bias correction for 111 Chinese provinces, European countries and US states spanning ten years (∼10 million observations). This flexible framework allows for near-optimal analysis, integration of demand, and consideration of additional decision criteria without additional modelling. We find that spatial integration of wind resources optimising the distribution of capacities provides significant benefits in terms of higher CF or lower residual load and lower variability at sub-, quasi- and inter-continental levels. We employ the concept of firmness as achieving a reliable and certain generation profile and show that, in the best case, the intercontinental interconnection between China, Europe and the US could restrict wind CFs to within the range of 15%–40% for 99% of the time. Smaller configurations corresponding to existing electricity markets also provide more certain and reliable generation profiles than isolated individual regions.
Accurate modelling of the weather’s temporal and spatial impacts on building energy demand is critical to decarbonizing energy systems. Here we introduce a customizable model for hourly heating and cooling demand applicable globally at all spatial scales. We validate against demand from ~5,000 buildings and 43 regions across four continents. The model requires limited data inputs and shows better agreement with measured demand than existing models. We use it first to demonstrate that a 1 °C reduction in thermostat settings across all buildings could reduce Europe’s gas consumption by 240 TWh yr−1, approximately one-sixth of historical imports from Russia. Second, we show that service demand for cooling is increasing by up to 5% per year in some regions due to climate change, and 5 billion people experience >100 additional cooling degree days per year when compared with a generation ago. The model and underlying data are freely accessible to promote further research.
...
Accurate modelling of the weather’s temporal and spatial impacts on building energy demand is critical to decarbonizing energy systems. Here we introduce a customizable model for hourly heating and cooling demand applicable globally at all spatial scales. We validate against demand from ~5,000 buildings and 43 regions across four continents. The model requires limited data inputs and shows better agreement with measured demand than existing models. We use it first to demonstrate that a 1 °C reduction in thermostat settings across all buildings could reduce Europe’s gas consumption by 240 TWh yr−1, approximately one-sixth of historical imports from Russia. Second, we show that service demand for cooling is increasing by up to 5% per year in some regions due to climate change, and 5 billion people experience >100 additional cooling degree days per year when compared with a generation ago. The model and underlying data are freely accessible to promote further research.
Corrigendum to High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments
A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs (Renewable Energy (2022) 182 (659–684), (S0960148121014841), (10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.027))
Journal article
(2022)
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Russell McKenna, Stefan Pfenninger, Natascha Landwehr, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Johan Lilliestam, Bryn Pickering, Martin Robinius, Tim Tröndle, Olga Turkovska, Sebastian Wehrle, Jann Michael Weinand, Jan Wohland, Heidi Heinrichs, Johannes Schmidt, Iain Staffell, Christian Bauer, Katharina Gruber, Andrea N. Hahmann, Malte Jansen, Michael Klingler
The authors wish to point out a typesetting error in Equation (1) of the above paper, published as [1] in this journal. An addition sign “+” was mistakenly replaced with a multiplication sign “∙” in this equation, as shown in Equation (1a) below. [Formula presented] There correct version of this equation is given in Equation (1b): [Formula presented]where n is the lifetime of the technology, I0 the investment [$], Mt the annual costs in year t [$/year], Et energy produced in year t [MWh/year] and i the interest rate. The authors apologise for any inconveince caused. This minor error has no implications for the validity of the conclusions and recommendations presented in section 6 of the original paper.
...
The authors wish to point out a typesetting error in Equation (1) of the above paper, published as [1] in this journal. An addition sign “+” was mistakenly replaced with a multiplication sign “∙” in this equation, as shown in Equation (1a) below. [Formula presented] There correct version of this equation is given in Equation (1b): [Formula presented]where n is the lifetime of the technology, I0 the investment [$], Mt the annual costs in year t [$/year], Et energy produced in year t [MWh/year] and i the interest rate. The authors apologise for any inconveince caused. This minor error has no implications for the validity of the conclusions and recommendations presented in section 6 of the original paper.
High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments
A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs
Review
(2022)
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Russell McKenna, Stefan Pfenninger, Natascha Landwehr, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Johan Lilliestam, Bryn Pickering, Martin Robinius, Tim Tröndle, Olga Turkovska, Sebastian Wehrle, Jann Michael Weinand, Jan Wohland, Heidi Heinrichs, Johannes Schmidt, Iain Staffell, Christian Bauer, Katharina Gruber, Andrea N. Hahmann, Malte Jansen, Michael Klingler
The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments of wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, constraints due to regulation or public opposition, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay/accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research.
...
The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments of wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, constraints due to regulation or public opposition, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay/accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research.
On the socio-technical potential for onshore wind in Europe
A response to Enevoldsen et al. (2019), Energy Policy, 132, 1092-1100
Journal article
(2020)
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R. McKenna, D. S. Ryberg, D. Stolten, T. Tröndle, S. Wehrle, J. M. Weinand, I. Staffell, A. N. Hahmann, J. Schmidt, H. Heinrichs, S. Höltinger, J. Lilliestam, S. Pfenninger, M. Robinius
A recent article in this journal claimed to assess the socio-technical potential for onshore wind energy in Europe. We find the article to be severely flawed and raise concerns in five general areas. Firstly, the term socio-technical is not precisely defined, and is used by the authors to refer to a potential that others term as merely technical. Secondly, the study fails to account for over a decade of research in wind energy resource assessments. Thirdly, there are multiple issues with the use of input data and, because the study is opaque about many details, the effect of these errors cannot be reproduced. Fourthly, the method assumes a very high wind turbine capacity density of 10.73 MW/km2 across 40% of the land area in Europe with a generic 30% capacity factor. Fifthly, the authors find an implausibly high onshore wind potential, with 120% more capacity and 70% more generation than the highest results given elsewhere in the literature. Overall, we conclude that new research at higher spatial resolutions can make a valuable contribution to wind resource potential assessments. However, due to the missing literature review, the lack of transparency and the overly simplistic methodology, Enevoldsen et al. (2019) potentially mislead fellow scientists, policy makers and the general public.
...
A recent article in this journal claimed to assess the socio-technical potential for onshore wind energy in Europe. We find the article to be severely flawed and raise concerns in five general areas. Firstly, the term socio-technical is not precisely defined, and is used by the authors to refer to a potential that others term as merely technical. Secondly, the study fails to account for over a decade of research in wind energy resource assessments. Thirdly, there are multiple issues with the use of input data and, because the study is opaque about many details, the effect of these errors cannot be reproduced. Fourthly, the method assumes a very high wind turbine capacity density of 10.73 MW/km2 across 40% of the land area in Europe with a generic 30% capacity factor. Fifthly, the authors find an implausibly high onshore wind potential, with 120% more capacity and 70% more generation than the highest results given elsewhere in the literature. Overall, we conclude that new research at higher spatial resolutions can make a valuable contribution to wind resource potential assessments. However, due to the missing literature review, the lack of transparency and the overly simplistic methodology, Enevoldsen et al. (2019) potentially mislead fellow scientists, policy makers and the general public.
The NExus Solutions Tool (NEST) v1.0
An open platform for optimizing multi-scale energy-water-land system transformations
Journal article
(2020)
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Adriano Vinca, Simon Parkinson, Iain Staffell, Stefan Pfenninger, Abubakr Muhammad, Andrew Rowe, Roberto Schaeffer, Narasimha D. Rao, Yoshihide Wada, Ned Djilali, Keywan Riahi, Edward Byers, Peter Burek, Zarrar Khan, Volker Krey, Fabio A. Diuana, Yaoping Wang, Ansir Ilyas, Alexandre C. Köberle
The energy-water-land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the NExus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy-water-land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open-access geospatial data available through national inventories and the Earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River basin in south Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades.
...
The energy-water-land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the NExus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy-water-land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open-access geospatial data available through national inventories and the Earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River basin in south Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades.
Journal article
(2018)
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Iain Staffell, Stefan Pfenninger
Wind and solar power have experienced rapid cost declines and are being deployed at scale. However, their output variability remains a key problem for managing electricity systems, and the implications of multi-day to multi-year variability are still poorly understood. As other energy-using sectors are electrified, the shape and variability of electricity demand will also change. We develop an open framework for quantifying the impacts of weather on electricity supply and demand using the Renewables.ninja and DESSTINEE models. We demonstrate this using a case study of Britain using National Grid's Two Degrees scenario forwards to 2030. We find the British electricity system is rapidly moving into unprecedented territory, with peak demand rising above 70 GW due to electric heating, and intermittent renewable output exceeding demand as early as 2021. Hourly ramp-rates widen by 50% and year-to-year variability increases by 80%, showing why future power system studies must consider multiple years of data, and the influence of weather on both supply and demand. Our framework is globally applicable, and allows detailed scenarios of hourly electricity supply and demand to be explored using only limited input data such as annual quantities from government scenarios or broader energy systems models.
...
Wind and solar power have experienced rapid cost declines and are being deployed at scale. However, their output variability remains a key problem for managing electricity systems, and the implications of multi-day to multi-year variability are still poorly understood. As other energy-using sectors are electrified, the shape and variability of electricity demand will also change. We develop an open framework for quantifying the impacts of weather on electricity supply and demand using the Renewables.ninja and DESSTINEE models. We demonstrate this using a case study of Britain using National Grid's Two Degrees scenario forwards to 2030. We find the British electricity system is rapidly moving into unprecedented territory, with peak demand rising above 70 GW due to electric heating, and intermittent renewable output exceeding demand as early as 2021. Hourly ramp-rates widen by 50% and year-to-year variability increases by 80%, showing why future power system studies must consider multiple years of data, and the influence of weather on both supply and demand. Our framework is globally applicable, and allows detailed scenarios of hourly electricity supply and demand to be explored using only limited input data such as annual quantities from government scenarios or broader energy systems models.
Opening the black box of energy modelling
Strategies and lessons learned
Journal article
(2018)
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Stefan Pfenninger, Lion Hirth, Simon Hilpert, Uwe Krien, Carsten Matke, Arjuna Nebel, Robbie Morrison, Berit Müller, Guido Pleßmann, Matthias Reeg, Jörn C. Richstein, Abhishek Shivakumar, Ingmar Schlecht, Iain Staffell, Tim Tröndle, Clemens Wingenbach, Eva Schmid, Frauke Wiese, Tom Brown, Chris Davis, Matthew Gidden, Heidi Heinrichs, Clara Heuberger
The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers’ choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research.
...
The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers’ choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research.
Journal article
(2018)
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Seán Collins, Paul Deane, Brian Ó Gallachóir, Stefan Pfenninger, Iain Staffell
Weather-dependent renewable energy resources are playing a key role in decarbonizing electricity. There is a growing body of analysis on the impacts of wind and solar variability on power system operation. Existing studies tend to use a single or typical year of generation data, which overlooks the substantial year-to-year fluctuation in weather, or to only consider variation in the meteorological inputs, which overlooks the complex response of an interconnected power system. Here, we address these gaps by combining detailed continent-wide modeling of Europe's future power system with 30 years of historical weather data. The most representative single years are 1989 and 2012, but using multiple years reveals a 5-fold increase in Europe's inter-annual variability of CO2 emissions and total generation costs from 2015 to 2030. We also find that several metrics generalize to linear functions of variable renewable penetration: CO2 emissions, curtailment of renewables, wholesale prices, and total system costs. Wind and solar power have been driving the decarbonization of Europe's electricity over the last decade. Increasing our reliance on weather-dependent resources makes it imperative that planning of electricity systems becomes cognizant of their long-term variability. Studies often neglect the long-term variability of these resources by using only data from a single or a few years or fail to account for the impacts of short-term international electricity flows and limitations on generator flexibility, which are critical to the integration of these variable generation sources. This study uses a continental electricity system model and 30 years of hourly wind and solar data to determine the impact of long-term weather patterns on European electricity system operation and how this varies with decarbonization ambition. The results show that the variability of CO2 emissions and total generation costs for this interconnected electricity system could increase 5-fold by 2030 compared with 2015. This research sheds light on the impact of long-term weather variability on the operation of the European power system and how this scales with uptake of wind and solar power out to 2030. We find that ambitious decarbonization leads to much greater influence of long-term weather patterns, with a 5-fold increase in operational variability by 2030. Several relevant metrics can be reasonably approximated by linear functions of variable renewable penetration, providing a shortcut for estimating the impacts of intermittency.
...
Weather-dependent renewable energy resources are playing a key role in decarbonizing electricity. There is a growing body of analysis on the impacts of wind and solar variability on power system operation. Existing studies tend to use a single or typical year of generation data, which overlooks the substantial year-to-year fluctuation in weather, or to only consider variation in the meteorological inputs, which overlooks the complex response of an interconnected power system. Here, we address these gaps by combining detailed continent-wide modeling of Europe's future power system with 30 years of historical weather data. The most representative single years are 1989 and 2012, but using multiple years reveals a 5-fold increase in Europe's inter-annual variability of CO2 emissions and total generation costs from 2015 to 2030. We also find that several metrics generalize to linear functions of variable renewable penetration: CO2 emissions, curtailment of renewables, wholesale prices, and total system costs. Wind and solar power have been driving the decarbonization of Europe's electricity over the last decade. Increasing our reliance on weather-dependent resources makes it imperative that planning of electricity systems becomes cognizant of their long-term variability. Studies often neglect the long-term variability of these resources by using only data from a single or a few years or fail to account for the impacts of short-term international electricity flows and limitations on generator flexibility, which are critical to the integration of these variable generation sources. This study uses a continental electricity system model and 30 years of hourly wind and solar data to determine the impact of long-term weather patterns on European electricity system operation and how this varies with decarbonization ambition. The results show that the variability of CO2 emissions and total generation costs for this interconnected electricity system could increase 5-fold by 2030 compared with 2015. This research sheds light on the impact of long-term weather variability on the operation of the European power system and how this scales with uptake of wind and solar power out to 2030. We find that ambitious decarbonization leads to much greater influence of long-term weather patterns, with a 5-fold increase in operational variability by 2030. Several relevant metrics can be reasonably approximated by linear functions of variable renewable penetration, providing a shortcut for estimating the impacts of intermittency.
The importance of open data and software
Is energy research lagging behind?
Journal article
(2017)
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Stefan Pfenninger, Joseph DeCarolis, Lion Hirth, Sylvain Quoilin, Iain Staffell
Energy policy often builds on insights gained from quantitative energy models and their underlying data. As climate change mitigation and economic concerns drive a sustained transformation of the energy sector, transparent and well-founded analyses are more important than ever. We assert that models and their associated data must be openly available to facilitate higher quality science, greater productivity through less duplicated effort, and a more effective science-policy boundary. There are also valid reasons why data and code are not open: ethical and security concerns, unwanted exposure, additional workload, and institutional or personal inertia. Overall, energy policy research ostensibly lags behind other fields in promoting more open and reproducible science. We take stock of the status quo and propose actionable steps forward for the energy research community to ensure that it can better engage with decision-makers and continues to deliver robust policy advice in a transparent and reproducible way.
...
Energy policy often builds on insights gained from quantitative energy models and their underlying data. As climate change mitigation and economic concerns drive a sustained transformation of the energy sector, transparent and well-founded analyses are more important than ever. We assert that models and their associated data must be openly available to facilitate higher quality science, greater productivity through less duplicated effort, and a more effective science-policy boundary. There are also valid reasons why data and code are not open: ethical and security concerns, unwanted exposure, additional workload, and institutional or personal inertia. Overall, energy policy research ostensibly lags behind other fields in promoting more open and reproducible science. We take stock of the status quo and propose actionable steps forward for the energy research community to ensure that it can better engage with decision-makers and continues to deliver robust policy advice in a transparent and reproducible way.
Journal article
(2017)
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Christian M. Grams, Remo Beerli, Stefan Pfenninger, Iain Staffell, Heini Wernli
As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways that minimize this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour-specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea-would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimizing the negative impacts of output variability.
...
As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways that minimize this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour-specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea-would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimizing the negative impacts of output variability.
High solar photovoltaic penetration in the absence of substantial wind capacity
Storage requirements and effects on capacity adequacy
Journal article
(2017)
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Fabrizio Fattori, Norma Anglani, Iain Staffell, Stefan Pfenninger
The penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasing in many countries, with significant implications for the adequacy and operation of power systems. This work considers the Nord bidding zone within Italy, which hosts 7.7 GW of PV and almost no wind power. We simulate the implications of different PV penetration levels on the need for firm generation capacity and on ramping requirements over one to several hours. We compare ten years of synthetic hourly PV generation series derived from CM-SAF SARAH satellite data and observed load. The analysis also provides insights into the storage capacity required to smooth residual load over different time horizons. Results show that without storage (i) the penetration of PV in the region does not sensibly reduce the need for firm generation; (ii) the marginal contribution of PV to meet power demand decreases with its penetration; and (iii) high penetrations lead to larger and more frequent ramps, although extreme ramp rates do not last more than 1 h. The availability of storage significantly alters these results, but large storage capacities are required. Smoothing net load by a few hours requires 2–7 GWh of storage per GW of PV installed.
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The penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasing in many countries, with significant implications for the adequacy and operation of power systems. This work considers the Nord bidding zone within Italy, which hosts 7.7 GW of PV and almost no wind power. We simulate the implications of different PV penetration levels on the need for firm generation capacity and on ramping requirements over one to several hours. We compare ten years of synthetic hourly PV generation series derived from CM-SAF SARAH satellite data and observed load. The analysis also provides insights into the storage capacity required to smooth residual load over different time horizons. Results show that without storage (i) the penetration of PV in the region does not sensibly reduce the need for firm generation; (ii) the marginal contribution of PV to meet power demand decreases with its penetration; and (iii) high penetrations lead to larger and more frequent ramps, although extreme ramp rates do not last more than 1 h. The availability of storage significantly alters these results, but large storage capacities are required. Smoothing net load by a few hours requires 2–7 GWh of storage per GW of PV installed.
Journal article
(2016)
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Stefan Pfenninger, Iain Staffell
Solar PV is rapidly growing globally, creating difficult questions around how to efficiently integrate it into national electricity grids. Its time-varying power output is difficult to model credibly because it depends on complex and variable weather systems, leading to difficulty in understanding its potential and limitations. We demonstrate how the MERRA and MERRA-2 global meteorological reanalyses as well as the Meteosat-based CM-SAF SARAH satellite dataset can be used to produce hourly PV simulations across Europe. To validate these simulations, we gather metered time series from more than 1000 PV systems as well as national aggregate output reported by transmission network operators. We find slightly better accuracy from satellite data, but greater stability from reanalysis data. We correct for systematic bias by matching our simulations to the mean bias in modeling individual sites, then examine the long-term patterns, variability and correlation with power demand across Europe, using thirty years of simulated outputs. The results quantify how the increasing deployment of PV substantially changes net power demand and affects system adequacy and ramping requirements, with heterogeneous impacts across different European countries. The simulation code and the hourly simulations for all European countries are available freely via an interactive web platform, www.renewables.ninja.
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Solar PV is rapidly growing globally, creating difficult questions around how to efficiently integrate it into national electricity grids. Its time-varying power output is difficult to model credibly because it depends on complex and variable weather systems, leading to difficulty in understanding its potential and limitations. We demonstrate how the MERRA and MERRA-2 global meteorological reanalyses as well as the Meteosat-based CM-SAF SARAH satellite dataset can be used to produce hourly PV simulations across Europe. To validate these simulations, we gather metered time series from more than 1000 PV systems as well as national aggregate output reported by transmission network operators. We find slightly better accuracy from satellite data, but greater stability from reanalysis data. We correct for systematic bias by matching our simulations to the mean bias in modeling individual sites, then examine the long-term patterns, variability and correlation with power demand across Europe, using thirty years of simulated outputs. The results quantify how the increasing deployment of PV substantially changes net power demand and affects system adequacy and ramping requirements, with heterogeneous impacts across different European countries. The simulation code and the hourly simulations for all European countries are available freely via an interactive web platform, www.renewables.ninja.
Journal article
(2016)
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Iain Staffell, Stefan Pfenninger
Reanalysis models are rapidly gaining popularity for simulating wind power output due to their convenience and global coverage. However, they should only be relied upon once thoroughly proven. This paper reports the first international validation of reanalysis for wind energy, testing NASA's MERRA and MERRA-2 in 23 European countries. Both reanalyses suffer significant spatial bias, overestimating wind output by 50% in northwest Europe and underestimating by 30% in the Mediterranean. We derive national correction factors, and show that after calibration national hourly output can be modelled with R2 above 0.95. Our underlying data are made freely available to aid future research. We then assess Europe's wind resources with twenty-year simulations of the current and potential future fleets. Europe's current average capacity factor is 24.2%, with countries ranging from 19.5% (Germany) to 32.4% (Britain). Capacity factors are rising due to improving technology and locations; for example, Britain's wind fleet is now 23% more productive than in 2005. Based on the current planning pipeline, we estimate Europe's average capacity factor could increase by nearly a third to 31.3%. Countries with large stakes in the North Sea will see significant gains, with Britain's average capacity factor rising to 39.4% and Germany's to 29.1%.
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Reanalysis models are rapidly gaining popularity for simulating wind power output due to their convenience and global coverage. However, they should only be relied upon once thoroughly proven. This paper reports the first international validation of reanalysis for wind energy, testing NASA's MERRA and MERRA-2 in 23 European countries. Both reanalyses suffer significant spatial bias, overestimating wind output by 50% in northwest Europe and underestimating by 30% in the Mediterranean. We derive national correction factors, and show that after calibration national hourly output can be modelled with R2 above 0.95. Our underlying data are made freely available to aid future research. We then assess Europe's wind resources with twenty-year simulations of the current and potential future fleets. Europe's current average capacity factor is 24.2%, with countries ranging from 19.5% (Germany) to 32.4% (Britain). Capacity factors are rising due to improving technology and locations; for example, Britain's wind fleet is now 23% more productive than in 2005. Based on the current planning pipeline, we estimate Europe's average capacity factor could increase by nearly a third to 31.3%. Countries with large stakes in the North Sea will see significant gains, with Britain's average capacity factor rising to 39.4% and Germany's to 29.1%.
Book chapter
(2015)
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Nick Kelly, Adam D. Hawkes, Paul E. Dodds, Iain Staffell, Stefan Pfenninger
This chapter explores the use of mathematical modelling for the simulation and optimisation of microgeneration technologies. In the case of simulation this is to explore the performance of microgeneration technologies against user-defined performance criteria. In the case of optimisation, this is to identify an optimum solution against user-defined constraints. The discussion begins at the scale of modelling individual components within a microgeneration system and the operation of these systems within the home, then moves up to country-scale modelling of how microgeneration acts within the whole energy system and its impacts on national energy consumption and carbon emissions.
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This chapter explores the use of mathematical modelling for the simulation and optimisation of microgeneration technologies. In the case of simulation this is to explore the performance of microgeneration technologies against user-defined performance criteria. In the case of optimisation, this is to identify an optimum solution against user-defined constraints. The discussion begins at the scale of modelling individual components within a microgeneration system and the operation of these systems within the home, then moves up to country-scale modelling of how microgeneration acts within the whole energy system and its impacts on national energy consumption and carbon emissions.