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Journal article(2025)
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Bob van der Zwaan, Amir Fattahi, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Panagiotis Fragkos, Maria Kannavou, Theofano Fotiou, Giannis Tolios, Will Usher, Francesco Dalla Longa, Mark Dekker, Detlef van Vuuren, Robert Pietzcker, Renato Rodrigues, Felix Schreyer, Daniel Huppmann, Johannes Emmerling
Electricity- and hydrogen-based sector coupling contributes to realizing the transition towards greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system. Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, large amounts of renewable electricity and H2 need to be generated, mostly by scaling-up wind and solar energy production capacity. With a set of such models, under jointly adopted deep decarbonisation scenario assumptions, we here show that the ensuing direct penetration of electricity and H2 in final energy consumption may rise to average shares of around 60% and 6%, respectively, by 2050. We demonstrate that electrification proves the most cost-efficient decarbonisation route in all economic sectors, while the direct use of H2 in final energy consumption provides a relatively small, though essential, contribution to deep decarbonisation. We conclude that the variance observed across results from different models reflects the uncertainties that abound in the shape of deep decarbonisation pathways, in particular with regard to the role of H2.
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Electricity- and hydrogen-based sector coupling contributes to realizing the transition towards greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system. Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, large amounts of renewable electricity and H2 need to be generated, mostly by scaling-up wind and solar energy production capacity. With a set of such models, under jointly adopted deep decarbonisation scenario assumptions, we here show that the ensuing direct penetration of electricity and H2 in final energy consumption may rise to average shares of around 60% and 6%, respectively, by 2050. We demonstrate that electrification proves the most cost-efficient decarbonisation route in all economic sectors, while the direct use of H2 in final energy consumption provides a relatively small, though essential, contribution to deep decarbonisation. We conclude that the variance observed across results from different models reflects the uncertainties that abound in the shape of deep decarbonisation pathways, in particular with regard to the role of H2.
Journal article(2024)
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W. Hazeleger, J.P.M. Aerts, P. Bauer, M.F.P. Bierkens, G. Camps-Valls, M.M. Dekker, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, S. Lhermitte, F.C. Vossepoel, More Authors...
Digital twins of the Earth are digital representations of the Earth system, spanning scales and domains. Their purpose is to monitor, forecast and assess the Earth system and the consequences of human interventions on the Earth system. Providing users with the capability to interact with and interrogate the system, digital twins of the Earth are decision support systems for addressing environmental challenges. By informing humans of their impact on the Earth system, digital twins aspire to promote new pathways moving forward. By answering causal queries through intervention analysis, they can enhance evidence-based policy making. Existing digital twins of the Earth are primarily technological information systems that represent the physical world. However, as the social and physical worlds are intrinsically interconnected, we argue that humans must be accounted for both within and outside digital twins of the Earth: Within twins to represent human impacts and responses that are integral to the Earth system; and outside twins to govern access and development and to guide responsible use of information acquired from twins. Incorporating human interactions in digital twins of the Earth represents a transformative frontier, promising unparalleled insights into Earth system dynamics and empower humans for action.
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Digital twins of the Earth are digital representations of the Earth system, spanning scales and domains. Their purpose is to monitor, forecast and assess the Earth system and the consequences of human interventions on the Earth system. Providing users with the capability to interact with and interrogate the system, digital twins of the Earth are decision support systems for addressing environmental challenges. By informing humans of their impact on the Earth system, digital twins aspire to promote new pathways moving forward. By answering causal queries through intervention analysis, they can enhance evidence-based policy making. Existing digital twins of the Earth are primarily technological information systems that represent the physical world. However, as the social and physical worlds are intrinsically interconnected, we argue that humans must be accounted for both within and outside digital twins of the Earth: Within twins to represent human impacts and responses that are integral to the Earth system; and outside twins to govern access and development and to guide responsible use of information acquired from twins. Incorporating human interactions in digital twins of the Earth represents a transformative frontier, promising unparalleled insights into Earth system dynamics and empower humans for action.
