Infrastructures are subjected to rapidly changing future developments. These future developments, in combination with the complex nature of infrastructure systems, involves assessing multiple variables and their underlying relations. It is hard for asset managers to incorporate this dynamic uncertainty and complexity in their long-term plans. Moreover, it is perceived as challenging to translate the effects from network-level interventions to operation level and thereby develop a shared policy for an infrastructure network in which all stakeholders are involved. Since infrastructures are the backbones of our economies, insight is required in the magnitude and time of occurrence of future developments in order to optimize asset performances. This study proposed a multivariate simulation approach, as a strategic decision-support tool. Insight was created in the challenges associated with the long-term planning within complex and dynamic infrastructure systems to implement interventions on a more substantial and informed basis.

Infrastructure asset managers are challenged by rapid changes around the world such as urbanisation and climate change. They have to deal with multiple complex and dynamic infrastructure systems that can influence each other and that can be influenced by various uncertain factors. Traditional planning methods are not well suited to complex and dynamic infrastructure environments. However, there are various alternative methods that can be used. This paper presents a simulation model for adaptive long-term infrastructure planning. For this model, a combination of planning and simulation methods is used that can cope with complex and dynamic (infrastructure) environments (i.e. system dynamics, exploratory modelling and analysis and adaptive pathways). This methodology is illustrated with a case consisting of a road system and a lock system in the Netherlands. The approach should be tested further in other cases, but it shows promise in improving the support of infrastructure decision-making in a complex, dynamic and uncertain infrastructure environment.