The European Union is not currently on track to meet its climate mitigation targets, and emissions reductions alone are unlikely to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will therefore be required to address residual emissions and potentially compensate for historical emissions. However, both CDR technologies and the policy frameworks governing them remain at an early stage of development, creating uncertainty regarding future deployment pathways.
The diversity of available CDR methods, combined with unresolved questions surrounding permanence, funding mechanisms, and governance, complicates the development of effective policy. While the Netherlands has published a roadmap outlining possible CDR developments to 2050, uncertainties remain regarding which policy interventions will be required and how they should adapt over time.
This thesis examines the research question: What contribution can Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) make to the development of carbon dioxide removal in the Netherlands? DAPP was originally developed to deal with adaptation decision-making within water systems and has not previously been used for the CDR sector. Therefore, DAPP was applied to the Dutch CDR sector to assess its usefulness as a policy-support tool. Pathways were developed iteratively using academic literature and policy documents and subsequently evaluated through stakeholder interviews representing a range of perspectives within the Dutch CDR sector. Four pathway maps were constructed based on two scenario dimensions: free market versus mandated CDR and the eligibility of permanent CDR only versus both permanent and temporary removals.
The interviews highlighted significant uncertainty regarding the definition of permanence and the role of temporary removals. Stakeholders suggested that temporary removals may contribute to addressing short-term emissions, although implementation mechanisms remain unclear. Discussions also emphasised the need for additional financial incentives and regulatory space for setting up pilot projects as potential drivers of CDR deployment.
The DAPP approach proved valuable for identifying uncertainties, constraints, trade-offs, and stakeholder perspectives; however, the resulting pathway maps were less effective in supporting detailed policy analysis or the development of concrete policy measures. Policymakers should prioritise defining residual emissions, clarifying the role of temporary removals, and assessing funding or mandate-based mechanisms to support CDR deployment. Future policy should also consider competition for CCS storage capacity and continue supporting emerging technologies. Further research could strengthen the DAPP approach by exploring pathway development at a higher level of aggregation, where CDR is considered alongside mitigation measures, or an approach focusing on specific CDR methods.
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