Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.@en

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change. @en

Ecosystem sensitivity to climate variability varies across East Africa, and identifying the determinant factors of this sensitivity is crucial to assessing region-wide vulnerability to climate change and variability. Such assessment critically relies on spatiotemporal data sets with inherent uncertainty, on new processing techniques to extract interannual variability at a priori unknown time scales and on adequate statistical models to test for biogeographical effects on vegetation-precipitation relationships. In this study, interannual variability in long-term records of normalized difference vegetation index and satellite-based precipitation estimates was detected using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and standardized precipitation index with varying accumulation periods. Environmental effect modeling using additive models with spatially correlated effects showed that ecosystem sensitivity is primarily predicted by biogeographical factors such as annual precipitation distribution (reaching maximum sensitivity at 500 mm yr−1), vegetation type and structure, ocean-climate coupling, and elevation. The threat of increasing climate variability and extremes impacting productivity and stability of ecosystems is most imminent in semiarid grassland and mixed cropland ecosystems. The influence of oceanic phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole is foremost reflected in precipitation variability, but prolonged episodes also pose risks for long-term degradation of tree-rich ecosystems in the East African Great Lakes region. @en

The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element method is well suited for the modelling, with a relatively small number of elements, of three-dimensional flows exhibiting strong velocity or density gradients. Its performance can be highly enhanced by having recourse to r-adaptivity. Here, a vertical adaptive mesh method is developed for DG finite elements. This method, originally designed for finite difference schemes, is based on the vertical diffusion of the mesh nodes, with the diffusivity controlled by the density jumps at the mesh element interfaces. The mesh vertical movement is determined by means of a conservative arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) formulation. Though conservativity is naturally achieved, tracer consistency is obtained by a suitable construction of the mesh vertical velocity field, which is defined in such a way that it is fully compatible with the tracer and continuity equations at a discrete level. The vertically adaptive mesh approach is implemented in the three-dimensional version of the geophysical and environmental flow Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice-ocean Model (SLIM 3D; www.climate.be/slim). Idealised benchmarks, aimed at simulating the oscillations of a sharp thermocline, are dealt with. Then, the relevance of the vertical adaptivity technique is assessed by simulating thermocline oscillations of Lake Tanganyika. The results are compared to measured vertical profiles of temperature, showing similar stratification and outcropping events.@en