The European Union aims to reduce its reliance on external suppliers of critical raw materials through the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which sets targets for domestic extraction, processing, and recycling by 2030. This thesis assesses whether the EU can meet the growing demand for neodymium and praseodymium from wind turbines through domestic processing.
Using a dynamic Material Flow Analysis (dMFA), three wind deployment and material demand scenarios were modelled for 2010–2050. Data on current and planned European processing facilities was collected and compared with projected sectoral demand.
Results show that under moderate demand, domestic processing capacity can be sufficient to meet the CRMA benchmark of 40% by 2030 and beyond. In high-demand scenarios, however, capacity expansion cannot keep up, and by 2050 the benchmark is missed due to growing competition from other sectors.
The findings suggest that processing capacity, while not the most immediate bottleneck, becomes a constraint in high-demand futures. Policy implications include strengthening cross-sectoral coordination, accelerating recycling integration, and deepening partnerships with nearby countries such as the UK and Norway. The study highlights that the EU’s self-sufficiency ambitions are achievable in moderate demand trajectories but require adaptive policies and continued monitoring to remain feasible under high-demand conditions.