Innovation has been a key characteristic in the aerospace industry. Launch Vehicles, in comparison, have largely stayed the same over the years; this is changing with the emergence of New Space and the commercialization of space. Competition forces innovation, which leads to companies trying out new materials and propellants that will give them the edge, but such transitions are tied to uncertainty.
This research investigates how material transitions create and amplify uncertainty in megaprojects, focusing on two aerospace test campaigns. The study addresses how uncertainties arise, how they differ between technical and organizational domains, what strategies are used to mitigate them and how a framework can be developed to strengthen procurement and supply chain management in predevelopment.
The study is based on two case studies within ArianeGroup, supported by 12 expert interviews, project documents and a focus group. The Material Transition Map was developed as a tool to visualize interview data and analyze cascading uncertainty across technical and organizational dimensions. The findings show that while technical uncertainty is actively managed through structured modelling and testing processes, organizational uncertainty, especially in supply chains, is more difficult to control. Material transitions trigger cascading effects that link technical changes to procurement delays, supplier challenges and schedule risks. Reliance on heritage plays a dual role in mitigating and amplifying these effects.
Theoretically, the research connects project studies with transition studies, showcasing how material transitions trigger megaproject uncertainty. Empirically, it provides insights into aerospace test campaigns, a sector rarely examined in management literature. Practically, it delivers the Material Transition Map and the Predevelopment Supply Chain Framework, a tailored strategy, validated with practitioners, to support uncertainty management.