The transport sector in the Netherlands is under pressure to reduce emissions, constituting about 12% of the country's total emissions, to align with the goals of the Paris Agreements. One promising solution is the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, particularly for long-haul transport, providing emission-free operation when sourced from renewable energy. While existing literature covers the financial and technological aspects of adopting hydrogen trucks, there is a noticeable gap concerning the social effects of this transition, which are crucial for a comprehensive evaluation of a subsidy program.
This thesis conducts a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the viability of subsidizing hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks in the Netherlands. By examining both costs and benefits, it aims to offer insights into the societal implications of transitioning from diesel to hydrogen trucks. Using a mixed-methods approach including stakeholder interviews and data analysis, the study evaluates emission reductions and social gains associated with this subsidy program.
The analysis considers two scenarios based on the future market share of hydrogen trucks and three subsidy program initiation dates (2024, 2030, and 2040), extending the assessment until 2050. Results indicate that initiating the subsidy program in 2024 yields the most favourable outcomes, yielding positive Net Present Values of 1.8 billion euros and 2.4 billion euros for the respective scenarios. Nevertheless, substantial subsidy costs are anticipated, with estimated expenses of 4 billion euros and 12 billion euros for each of the two 2024 scenarios, surpassing the government's proposed budget.
The study highlights uncertainties related to infrastructure costs and assumptions regarding economies of scale, underscoring the need for further investigation before implementing the subsidy program. Addressing these uncertainties is crucial for achieving a more precise understanding and ensuring the social viability of transitioning to hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks in the Netherlands.