This thesis studied which modeling approach is most suitable to simulate the human behavior of inhabitants in river deltas during environmental changes. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) was chosen as the test case. The salinity levels are rising in river deltas, and it is studie
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This thesis studied which modeling approach is most suitable to simulate the human behavior of inhabitants in river deltas during environmental changes. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) was chosen as the test case. The salinity levels are rising in river deltas, and it is studied how the impacts on local populations can be modeled. System Dynamics (SD), Discrete-Event Simulation (DES), and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) were compared. There were too few advantages of DES compared to SD and ABM for this case, and therefore, only models were created in ABM and SD.
The ABM offers several advantages, among others, the ability to simulate individual human behavior and emergent behavior. However, there is a risk of overfitting with the current level of data, and the model is more complex to understand.
The SD model runs fast, and the stock-flow structure provides a clear overview of the system. However, the aggregation level of SD also has limitations: individual behavior cannot be modeled.
Due to the strengths and limitations of both techniques, the results of the two models differ considerably. Nevertheless, the ABM model provides a more realistic representation, and it is therefore recommended to the employees at Deltares to develop a model in ABM. This is one of the few studies that developed both an ABM and an SD model using the exact same variables, and it is the first one related to river deltas and farmers. Furthermore, it can be seen as a stepping stone for Deltares to continue its research towards developing a socioeconomic model to simulate the impacts of inhabitants in the VMD.