PC
P.A. Castillo Gil
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As maritime regulatory bodies tighten restrictions on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the shipping industry is forced to reduce emissions with measures such as fuel consumption optimization, reduction of vessel design speed or reducing the installed power safety buffer. This compromises the historically introduced safety buffer of marine power plants, introducing the need to evaluate the propulsion reliability and availability.
Current regulations, specifically SOLAS II-1 26.2 and 26.3, have strict redundancy guidelines that are evenly applied across different configurations. Applying technological neutrality across conventional and complex configurations can penalize optimized power plant designs. Furthermore, existing literature relies heavily on oversimplified, constant failure rate methodologies that fail to capture realistic mechanical wear-out and maintainability.
To bridge these regulatory and methodological gaps, this thesis implements a quantitative combined deterministic-probabilistic framework. Using ReliaSoft BlockSim, four distinct vessel configurations were modelled as Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD): a baseline single-line diesel configuration (Case A1), a twin-engine diesel drive (Case A2), a diesel-electric system with a closed bus tie (Case B1), and a segregated diesel-electric system with an open bus tie (Case B2). Reliability data was extracted from historical databases, technical literature and academic standards, integrating standard exponential laws and time-dependent Weibull distribution models.
The deterministic analysis demonstrated that all redundant configurations exceeded the Case A1 reference baseline (R=0.2199), with Cases A2, B1 and B2 providing reliability gains of 66.2%, 295%, and 280.1% respectively.
Long-term Monte Carlo simulations revealed a critical regulatory inconsistency. The transition from Case B1 to a segregated busbar configuration in Case B2 eliminated a major electrical SPOF, with negligible variation in global availability (98.95% and 98.84%). Importance measures identified propulsion and steering lines and auxiliary systems as the primary bottlenecks, showing an operational importance up to 26.4%.
These findings demonstrate that while physical redundancy is a highly effective method for increasing availability in conventional diesel systems, it forces unconventional diesel-electric vessels into a zone of diminishing returns without delivering meaningful safety improvements. By establishing Case B1 as the ideal equilibrium between financial cost, operational safety, and environmental compliance, this research strongly advocates for a transition toward goal-based availability standards.
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Current regulations, specifically SOLAS II-1 26.2 and 26.3, have strict redundancy guidelines that are evenly applied across different configurations. Applying technological neutrality across conventional and complex configurations can penalize optimized power plant designs. Furthermore, existing literature relies heavily on oversimplified, constant failure rate methodologies that fail to capture realistic mechanical wear-out and maintainability.
To bridge these regulatory and methodological gaps, this thesis implements a quantitative combined deterministic-probabilistic framework. Using ReliaSoft BlockSim, four distinct vessel configurations were modelled as Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD): a baseline single-line diesel configuration (Case A1), a twin-engine diesel drive (Case A2), a diesel-electric system with a closed bus tie (Case B1), and a segregated diesel-electric system with an open bus tie (Case B2). Reliability data was extracted from historical databases, technical literature and academic standards, integrating standard exponential laws and time-dependent Weibull distribution models.
The deterministic analysis demonstrated that all redundant configurations exceeded the Case A1 reference baseline (R=0.2199), with Cases A2, B1 and B2 providing reliability gains of 66.2%, 295%, and 280.1% respectively.
Long-term Monte Carlo simulations revealed a critical regulatory inconsistency. The transition from Case B1 to a segregated busbar configuration in Case B2 eliminated a major electrical SPOF, with negligible variation in global availability (98.95% and 98.84%). Importance measures identified propulsion and steering lines and auxiliary systems as the primary bottlenecks, showing an operational importance up to 26.4%.
These findings demonstrate that while physical redundancy is a highly effective method for increasing availability in conventional diesel systems, it forces unconventional diesel-electric vessels into a zone of diminishing returns without delivering meaningful safety improvements. By establishing Case B1 as the ideal equilibrium between financial cost, operational safety, and environmental compliance, this research strongly advocates for a transition toward goal-based availability standards.
...
As maritime regulatory bodies tighten restrictions on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the shipping industry is forced to reduce emissions with measures such as fuel consumption optimization, reduction of vessel design speed or reducing the installed power safety buffer. This compromises the historically introduced safety buffer of marine power plants, introducing the need to evaluate the propulsion reliability and availability.
Current regulations, specifically SOLAS II-1 26.2 and 26.3, have strict redundancy guidelines that are evenly applied across different configurations. Applying technological neutrality across conventional and complex configurations can penalize optimized power plant designs. Furthermore, existing literature relies heavily on oversimplified, constant failure rate methodologies that fail to capture realistic mechanical wear-out and maintainability.
To bridge these regulatory and methodological gaps, this thesis implements a quantitative combined deterministic-probabilistic framework. Using ReliaSoft BlockSim, four distinct vessel configurations were modelled as Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD): a baseline single-line diesel configuration (Case A1), a twin-engine diesel drive (Case A2), a diesel-electric system with a closed bus tie (Case B1), and a segregated diesel-electric system with an open bus tie (Case B2). Reliability data was extracted from historical databases, technical literature and academic standards, integrating standard exponential laws and time-dependent Weibull distribution models.
The deterministic analysis demonstrated that all redundant configurations exceeded the Case A1 reference baseline (R=0.2199), with Cases A2, B1 and B2 providing reliability gains of 66.2%, 295%, and 280.1% respectively.
Long-term Monte Carlo simulations revealed a critical regulatory inconsistency. The transition from Case B1 to a segregated busbar configuration in Case B2 eliminated a major electrical SPOF, with negligible variation in global availability (98.95% and 98.84%). Importance measures identified propulsion and steering lines and auxiliary systems as the primary bottlenecks, showing an operational importance up to 26.4%.
These findings demonstrate that while physical redundancy is a highly effective method for increasing availability in conventional diesel systems, it forces unconventional diesel-electric vessels into a zone of diminishing returns without delivering meaningful safety improvements. By establishing Case B1 as the ideal equilibrium between financial cost, operational safety, and environmental compliance, this research strongly advocates for a transition toward goal-based availability standards.
Current regulations, specifically SOLAS II-1 26.2 and 26.3, have strict redundancy guidelines that are evenly applied across different configurations. Applying technological neutrality across conventional and complex configurations can penalize optimized power plant designs. Furthermore, existing literature relies heavily on oversimplified, constant failure rate methodologies that fail to capture realistic mechanical wear-out and maintainability.
To bridge these regulatory and methodological gaps, this thesis implements a quantitative combined deterministic-probabilistic framework. Using ReliaSoft BlockSim, four distinct vessel configurations were modelled as Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD): a baseline single-line diesel configuration (Case A1), a twin-engine diesel drive (Case A2), a diesel-electric system with a closed bus tie (Case B1), and a segregated diesel-electric system with an open bus tie (Case B2). Reliability data was extracted from historical databases, technical literature and academic standards, integrating standard exponential laws and time-dependent Weibull distribution models.
The deterministic analysis demonstrated that all redundant configurations exceeded the Case A1 reference baseline (R=0.2199), with Cases A2, B1 and B2 providing reliability gains of 66.2%, 295%, and 280.1% respectively.
Long-term Monte Carlo simulations revealed a critical regulatory inconsistency. The transition from Case B1 to a segregated busbar configuration in Case B2 eliminated a major electrical SPOF, with negligible variation in global availability (98.95% and 98.84%). Importance measures identified propulsion and steering lines and auxiliary systems as the primary bottlenecks, showing an operational importance up to 26.4%.
These findings demonstrate that while physical redundancy is a highly effective method for increasing availability in conventional diesel systems, it forces unconventional diesel-electric vessels into a zone of diminishing returns without delivering meaningful safety improvements. By establishing Case B1 as the ideal equilibrium between financial cost, operational safety, and environmental compliance, this research strongly advocates for a transition toward goal-based availability standards.