Microbial ecosystems consist of many interacting components that integrate through stochastic and highly dynamic processes across multiple scales. Yet, despite this complexity, microbial communities exhibit remarkably robust patterns and reproducible functions. This apparent paradox reflects the role of constraints, whether physical, physiological, or evolutionary, that channel stochasticity into structured outcomes. Due to the limited knowledge of the nature of these constraints, models in ecology have traditionally relied on stochastic exploration under minimal mechanistic assumptions. Now, advances in data availability and computational methods increasingly allow us to construct models that incorporate explicit mechanistic constraints. In this review, we synthesize emerging modeling approaches that explore the space of ecological possibility in microbial ecosystems under realistic constraints, such as those imposed by metabolic stoichiometry, thermodynamics, or the structure of ecological interaction networks. We argue that integrating such constraints can significantly improve the predictive resolution of models, helping us build a much needed bridge between theory and data. We further discuss how novel statistical approaches are revealing simple, low-dimensional patterns in microbial communities, offering empirical clues for identifying the underlying constraints. Together, these developments suggest a path toward a data-driven and mechanistically informed theory in microbial ecology.

Microbial strategies for resource use are an essential determinant of their fitness in complex habitats. When facing environments with multiple nutrients, microbes often use them sequentially according to a preference hierarchy, resulting in well-known patterns of diauxic growth. In theory, the evolutionary diversification of metabolic hierarchies could represent a mechanism supporting coexistence and biodiversity by enabling temporal segregation of niches. Despite this ecologically critical role, the extent to which substrate preference hierarchies can evolve and diversify remains largely unexplored. Here, we used genome-scale metabolic modeling to systematically explore the evolution of metabolic hierarchies across a vast space of metabolic network genotypes. We find that only a limited number of metabolic hierarchies can readily evolve, corresponding to the most commonly observed hierarchies in genome-derived models. We further show how the evolution of novel hierarchies is constrained by the architecture of central metabolism, which determines both the propensity to change ranks between pairs of substrates and the effect of specific reactions on hierarchy evolution. Our analysis sheds light on the genetic and mechanistic determinants of microbial metabolic hierarchies, opening new research avenues to understand their evolution, evolvability, and ecology.

Harnessing the power of microbial consortia is integral to a diverse range of sectors, from healthcare to biotechnology to environmental remediation. To fully realize this potential, it is critical to understand the mechanisms behind the interactions that structure microbial consortia and determine their functions. Constraint-based reconstruction and analysis (COBRA) approaches, employing genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs), have emerged as the state-of-the-art tool to simulate the behavior of microbial communities from their constituent genomes. In the last decade, many tools have been developed that use COBRA approaches to simulate multi-species consortia, under either steady-state, dynamic, or spatiotemporally varying scenarios. Yet, these tools have not been systematically evaluated regarding their software quality, most suitable application, and predictive power. Hence, it is uncertain which tools users should apply to their system and what are the most urgent directions that developers should take in the future to improve existing capacities. This study conducted a systematic evaluation of COBRA-based tools for microbial communities using datasets from two-member communities as test cases. First, we performed a qualitative assessment in which we evaluated 24 published tools based on a list of FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) features essential for software quality. Next, we quantitatively tested the predictions in a subset of 14 of these tools against experimental data from three different case studies: a) syngas fermentation by C. autoethanogenum and C. kluyveri for the static tools, b) glucose/xylose fermentation with engineered E. coli and S. cerevisiae for the dynamic tools, and c) a Petri dish of E. coli and S. enterica for tools incorporating spatiotemporal variation. Our results show varying performance levels of the best qualitatively assessed tools when examining the different categories of tools. The differences in the mathematical formulation of the approaches and their relation to the results were also discussed.

Understanding the mechanisms that maintain microbial biodiversity is a critical aspiration in ecology. Past work on microbial coexistence has largely focused on species pairs, but it is unclear whether pairwise coexistence in isolation is required for coexistence in a multispecies community. To address this question, we conducted hundreds of pairwise competition experiments among the stably coexisting members of 12 different enrichment communities in vitro. To determine the outcomes of these experiments, we developed an automated image analysis pipeline to quantify species abundances. We found that competitive exclusion was the most common outcome, and it was strongly hierarchical and transitive. Because many species that coexist within a stable multispecies community fail to coexist in pairwise co-culture under identical conditions, we concluded that multispecies coexistence is an emergent phenomenon. This work highlights the importance of community context for understanding the origins of coexistence in complex ecosystems.