Md
M.C.T.C. de Koning
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Fleet Planning Under Demand Uncertainty
A Reinforcement Learning Approach
This work proposes a model-free reinforcement learning approach to learn a long-term fleet planning problem subjected to air-travel demand uncertainty. The aim is to develop a dynamic fleet policy which adapts over time by intermediate assessments of the states. A Deep Q-network is trained to estimate the optimal fleet decisions based on the airline and network conditions. An end-to-end learning set-up is developed, where an optimisation algorithm evaluates the fleet decisions by comparing the optimal fleet solution profit to the estimated fleet solution profit. The stochastic evolution of air-travel demand is sampled by an adaptation of the mean-reversion Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, adjusting the air-travel demand growth at each route for general network-demand growth to capture network trends. A case study is demonstrated for three demand scenarios for a small airline operating on a domestic US airport network. It is proven that the Deep Q-network can improve the prediction values of the fleet decisions by considering the air-travel demand as input states. Secondly, the trained fleet policy is able to generate near-optimal fleet solutions and shows comparable results to a reference deterministic optimisation algorithm.
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This work proposes a model-free reinforcement learning approach to learn a long-term fleet planning problem subjected to air-travel demand uncertainty. The aim is to develop a dynamic fleet policy which adapts over time by intermediate assessments of the states. A Deep Q-network is trained to estimate the optimal fleet decisions based on the airline and network conditions. An end-to-end learning set-up is developed, where an optimisation algorithm evaluates the fleet decisions by comparing the optimal fleet solution profit to the estimated fleet solution profit. The stochastic evolution of air-travel demand is sampled by an adaptation of the mean-reversion Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, adjusting the air-travel demand growth at each route for general network-demand growth to capture network trends. A case study is demonstrated for three demand scenarios for a small airline operating on a domestic US airport network. It is proven that the Deep Q-network can improve the prediction values of the fleet decisions by considering the air-travel demand as input states. Secondly, the trained fleet policy is able to generate near-optimal fleet solutions and shows comparable results to a reference deterministic optimisation algorithm.
Floating Wind Turbine
Satisfying the global need for cheap sustainable energy
Bachelor thesis
(2016)
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J.A. Alberts, J. D'Haens, F. van Es, M.G.W. Groot, S.R. de Heij, M.C.T.C. de Koning, L.H.T. de Laat, R.H.A.A. Liebrand, M.M. Ottenhoff, J. Tober, A.C. Viré, A. Rubino