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J.S. Paardekooper
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Strategic Carbon Flow Assessment for a Dutch Defossilisation Pathway
Using Origin-Labelled Carbon Flow Mapping and Creating the Essential Carbon Assessment Framework to Support Strategic Prioritisation of Scarce Sustainable Carbon
Human activity has disrupted the balance between the short and long carbon cycles. Achieving climate neutrality and a circular economy therefore not only requires reducing CO2
emissions, but also deciding which uses of carbon can remain and how scarce sustainable carbon should be allocated. This highlights the necessity of understanding how carbon flows through the economy. This thesis addresses the question: How can scarce sustainable carbon best be allocated by prioritising carbon flows across energy, material and food uses in the Netherlands, given the current carbon supply, use, and trade patterns?
To answer this, the thesis first maps how carbon currently flows through the Netherlands and then assesses which of these flows are truly essential in a fossil-free future. In 2020, about 156 Megatonnes Carbon entered the Dutch economy via domestic extraction, imports and recycled inputs. Roughly 78% of this supply was fossil, 17% was biogenic and at most 6% was recycled. Around 83% of total carbon supply was imported, confirming the Netherlands as a carbon transit and processing hub that relies on international supply chains for both fossil and non-fossil carbon. This already indicates a key tension for the transition: sustainable carbon is scarce and largely imported, yet current use of carbon is dominated by fossil use.
Methodologically, the thesis develops and applies two complementary instruments:
1. An Origin-Labelled Carbon Flow Map of the Dutch economy, which traces carbon from supply (extraction, imports, stocks) through main purposes (energy, materials, food/feed) to final destinations (domestic use, export, emissions, waste, stocks). The map distinguishes fossil, biogenic, and recycled carbon.
2. An Essential Carbon Assessment Framework inspired by the essential use doctrine of the Montreal Protocol. Each Carbon Flow of Concern is scored on (i) societal essentiality of the function, (ii) technical substitutability based on the maturity of low-carbon alternatives, and (iii) circularity constraints. These criteria are combined into an Essentiality Index under different weighting scenarios, which provides a transparent ranking of flows for policy prioritisation.
Overall, the Carbon Flow Mapping highlights three structural insights that are critical for prioritisation: (i) fossil carbon still supports the majority of Dutch energy and material use; (ii) most domestically available biogenic carbon is already structurally allocated to food/feed and long-lived materials rather than energy; and (iii) recycling compensates for only a small fraction of primary carbon demand.
On top of this mapping, the Essential Carbon Assessment Framework offers a structured approach to determining which uses should retain access to scarce sustainable carbon. The framework is
applied to five representative carbon flows: (A) fossil refinery products exported as fuels; (B) domestically consumed biogenic food; (C) fossil-based chemicals for export; (D) fossil refinery
products combusted domestically for transport and other energy services; and (E) fossil natural gas for household energy. Together, these cases encompass high-volume exports, domestic energy services and essential food provision.
Across the different weighting scenarios, the ranking of flows remains consistent in its overarching message. When volume is weighted more heavily, large export flows dominate the ranking; when
essentiality is prioritised, food and minimum domestic energy services rank higher. In both cases, the framework indicates that Dutch carbon governance must pursue two parallel objectives: (i) phase out high-volume, non-essential fossil flows that currently dominate the carbon system; and (ii) safeguard a much smaller set of essential carbon flows, principally nutrition and a minimum level of domestic energy and material services, with scarce sustainable carbon.
The thesis therefore concludes that prioritisation is not an optional refinement but a prerequisite for a feasible carbon transition. Scarce sustainable carbon cannot replace all current fossil uses one-to-one. By combining an origin-labelled carbon flow map with an essentiality assessment, this work provides a concrete basis for deciding where limited biogenic, recycled and captured carbon should be allocated, and which fossil uses should be reduced first. Effective carbon governance in the Netherlands requires a threefold strategy: reduce total carbon demand, prioritise essential uses, and strategically secure non-fossil carbon supply. Implementing such a strategy can enable the Netherlands to move from a fossil-dependent carbon hub towards a climate-resilient, circular carbon economy. ...
emissions, but also deciding which uses of carbon can remain and how scarce sustainable carbon should be allocated. This highlights the necessity of understanding how carbon flows through the economy. This thesis addresses the question: How can scarce sustainable carbon best be allocated by prioritising carbon flows across energy, material and food uses in the Netherlands, given the current carbon supply, use, and trade patterns?
To answer this, the thesis first maps how carbon currently flows through the Netherlands and then assesses which of these flows are truly essential in a fossil-free future. In 2020, about 156 Megatonnes Carbon entered the Dutch economy via domestic extraction, imports and recycled inputs. Roughly 78% of this supply was fossil, 17% was biogenic and at most 6% was recycled. Around 83% of total carbon supply was imported, confirming the Netherlands as a carbon transit and processing hub that relies on international supply chains for both fossil and non-fossil carbon. This already indicates a key tension for the transition: sustainable carbon is scarce and largely imported, yet current use of carbon is dominated by fossil use.
Methodologically, the thesis develops and applies two complementary instruments:
1. An Origin-Labelled Carbon Flow Map of the Dutch economy, which traces carbon from supply (extraction, imports, stocks) through main purposes (energy, materials, food/feed) to final destinations (domestic use, export, emissions, waste, stocks). The map distinguishes fossil, biogenic, and recycled carbon.
2. An Essential Carbon Assessment Framework inspired by the essential use doctrine of the Montreal Protocol. Each Carbon Flow of Concern is scored on (i) societal essentiality of the function, (ii) technical substitutability based on the maturity of low-carbon alternatives, and (iii) circularity constraints. These criteria are combined into an Essentiality Index under different weighting scenarios, which provides a transparent ranking of flows for policy prioritisation.
Overall, the Carbon Flow Mapping highlights three structural insights that are critical for prioritisation: (i) fossil carbon still supports the majority of Dutch energy and material use; (ii) most domestically available biogenic carbon is already structurally allocated to food/feed and long-lived materials rather than energy; and (iii) recycling compensates for only a small fraction of primary carbon demand.
On top of this mapping, the Essential Carbon Assessment Framework offers a structured approach to determining which uses should retain access to scarce sustainable carbon. The framework is
applied to five representative carbon flows: (A) fossil refinery products exported as fuels; (B) domestically consumed biogenic food; (C) fossil-based chemicals for export; (D) fossil refinery
products combusted domestically for transport and other energy services; and (E) fossil natural gas for household energy. Together, these cases encompass high-volume exports, domestic energy services and essential food provision.
Across the different weighting scenarios, the ranking of flows remains consistent in its overarching message. When volume is weighted more heavily, large export flows dominate the ranking; when
essentiality is prioritised, food and minimum domestic energy services rank higher. In both cases, the framework indicates that Dutch carbon governance must pursue two parallel objectives: (i) phase out high-volume, non-essential fossil flows that currently dominate the carbon system; and (ii) safeguard a much smaller set of essential carbon flows, principally nutrition and a minimum level of domestic energy and material services, with scarce sustainable carbon.
The thesis therefore concludes that prioritisation is not an optional refinement but a prerequisite for a feasible carbon transition. Scarce sustainable carbon cannot replace all current fossil uses one-to-one. By combining an origin-labelled carbon flow map with an essentiality assessment, this work provides a concrete basis for deciding where limited biogenic, recycled and captured carbon should be allocated, and which fossil uses should be reduced first. Effective carbon governance in the Netherlands requires a threefold strategy: reduce total carbon demand, prioritise essential uses, and strategically secure non-fossil carbon supply. Implementing such a strategy can enable the Netherlands to move from a fossil-dependent carbon hub towards a climate-resilient, circular carbon economy. ...
Human activity has disrupted the balance between the short and long carbon cycles. Achieving climate neutrality and a circular economy therefore not only requires reducing CO2
emissions, but also deciding which uses of carbon can remain and how scarce sustainable carbon should be allocated. This highlights the necessity of understanding how carbon flows through the economy. This thesis addresses the question: How can scarce sustainable carbon best be allocated by prioritising carbon flows across energy, material and food uses in the Netherlands, given the current carbon supply, use, and trade patterns?
To answer this, the thesis first maps how carbon currently flows through the Netherlands and then assesses which of these flows are truly essential in a fossil-free future. In 2020, about 156 Megatonnes Carbon entered the Dutch economy via domestic extraction, imports and recycled inputs. Roughly 78% of this supply was fossil, 17% was biogenic and at most 6% was recycled. Around 83% of total carbon supply was imported, confirming the Netherlands as a carbon transit and processing hub that relies on international supply chains for both fossil and non-fossil carbon. This already indicates a key tension for the transition: sustainable carbon is scarce and largely imported, yet current use of carbon is dominated by fossil use.
Methodologically, the thesis develops and applies two complementary instruments:
1. An Origin-Labelled Carbon Flow Map of the Dutch economy, which traces carbon from supply (extraction, imports, stocks) through main purposes (energy, materials, food/feed) to final destinations (domestic use, export, emissions, waste, stocks). The map distinguishes fossil, biogenic, and recycled carbon.
2. An Essential Carbon Assessment Framework inspired by the essential use doctrine of the Montreal Protocol. Each Carbon Flow of Concern is scored on (i) societal essentiality of the function, (ii) technical substitutability based on the maturity of low-carbon alternatives, and (iii) circularity constraints. These criteria are combined into an Essentiality Index under different weighting scenarios, which provides a transparent ranking of flows for policy prioritisation.
Overall, the Carbon Flow Mapping highlights three structural insights that are critical for prioritisation: (i) fossil carbon still supports the majority of Dutch energy and material use; (ii) most domestically available biogenic carbon is already structurally allocated to food/feed and long-lived materials rather than energy; and (iii) recycling compensates for only a small fraction of primary carbon demand.
On top of this mapping, the Essential Carbon Assessment Framework offers a structured approach to determining which uses should retain access to scarce sustainable carbon. The framework is
applied to five representative carbon flows: (A) fossil refinery products exported as fuels; (B) domestically consumed biogenic food; (C) fossil-based chemicals for export; (D) fossil refinery
products combusted domestically for transport and other energy services; and (E) fossil natural gas for household energy. Together, these cases encompass high-volume exports, domestic energy services and essential food provision.
Across the different weighting scenarios, the ranking of flows remains consistent in its overarching message. When volume is weighted more heavily, large export flows dominate the ranking; when
essentiality is prioritised, food and minimum domestic energy services rank higher. In both cases, the framework indicates that Dutch carbon governance must pursue two parallel objectives: (i) phase out high-volume, non-essential fossil flows that currently dominate the carbon system; and (ii) safeguard a much smaller set of essential carbon flows, principally nutrition and a minimum level of domestic energy and material services, with scarce sustainable carbon.
The thesis therefore concludes that prioritisation is not an optional refinement but a prerequisite for a feasible carbon transition. Scarce sustainable carbon cannot replace all current fossil uses one-to-one. By combining an origin-labelled carbon flow map with an essentiality assessment, this work provides a concrete basis for deciding where limited biogenic, recycled and captured carbon should be allocated, and which fossil uses should be reduced first. Effective carbon governance in the Netherlands requires a threefold strategy: reduce total carbon demand, prioritise essential uses, and strategically secure non-fossil carbon supply. Implementing such a strategy can enable the Netherlands to move from a fossil-dependent carbon hub towards a climate-resilient, circular carbon economy.
emissions, but also deciding which uses of carbon can remain and how scarce sustainable carbon should be allocated. This highlights the necessity of understanding how carbon flows through the economy. This thesis addresses the question: How can scarce sustainable carbon best be allocated by prioritising carbon flows across energy, material and food uses in the Netherlands, given the current carbon supply, use, and trade patterns?
To answer this, the thesis first maps how carbon currently flows through the Netherlands and then assesses which of these flows are truly essential in a fossil-free future. In 2020, about 156 Megatonnes Carbon entered the Dutch economy via domestic extraction, imports and recycled inputs. Roughly 78% of this supply was fossil, 17% was biogenic and at most 6% was recycled. Around 83% of total carbon supply was imported, confirming the Netherlands as a carbon transit and processing hub that relies on international supply chains for both fossil and non-fossil carbon. This already indicates a key tension for the transition: sustainable carbon is scarce and largely imported, yet current use of carbon is dominated by fossil use.
Methodologically, the thesis develops and applies two complementary instruments:
1. An Origin-Labelled Carbon Flow Map of the Dutch economy, which traces carbon from supply (extraction, imports, stocks) through main purposes (energy, materials, food/feed) to final destinations (domestic use, export, emissions, waste, stocks). The map distinguishes fossil, biogenic, and recycled carbon.
2. An Essential Carbon Assessment Framework inspired by the essential use doctrine of the Montreal Protocol. Each Carbon Flow of Concern is scored on (i) societal essentiality of the function, (ii) technical substitutability based on the maturity of low-carbon alternatives, and (iii) circularity constraints. These criteria are combined into an Essentiality Index under different weighting scenarios, which provides a transparent ranking of flows for policy prioritisation.
Overall, the Carbon Flow Mapping highlights three structural insights that are critical for prioritisation: (i) fossil carbon still supports the majority of Dutch energy and material use; (ii) most domestically available biogenic carbon is already structurally allocated to food/feed and long-lived materials rather than energy; and (iii) recycling compensates for only a small fraction of primary carbon demand.
On top of this mapping, the Essential Carbon Assessment Framework offers a structured approach to determining which uses should retain access to scarce sustainable carbon. The framework is
applied to five representative carbon flows: (A) fossil refinery products exported as fuels; (B) domestically consumed biogenic food; (C) fossil-based chemicals for export; (D) fossil refinery
products combusted domestically for transport and other energy services; and (E) fossil natural gas for household energy. Together, these cases encompass high-volume exports, domestic energy services and essential food provision.
Across the different weighting scenarios, the ranking of flows remains consistent in its overarching message. When volume is weighted more heavily, large export flows dominate the ranking; when
essentiality is prioritised, food and minimum domestic energy services rank higher. In both cases, the framework indicates that Dutch carbon governance must pursue two parallel objectives: (i) phase out high-volume, non-essential fossil flows that currently dominate the carbon system; and (ii) safeguard a much smaller set of essential carbon flows, principally nutrition and a minimum level of domestic energy and material services, with scarce sustainable carbon.
The thesis therefore concludes that prioritisation is not an optional refinement but a prerequisite for a feasible carbon transition. Scarce sustainable carbon cannot replace all current fossil uses one-to-one. By combining an origin-labelled carbon flow map with an essentiality assessment, this work provides a concrete basis for deciding where limited biogenic, recycled and captured carbon should be allocated, and which fossil uses should be reduced first. Effective carbon governance in the Netherlands requires a threefold strategy: reduce total carbon demand, prioritise essential uses, and strategically secure non-fossil carbon supply. Implementing such a strategy can enable the Netherlands to move from a fossil-dependent carbon hub towards a climate-resilient, circular carbon economy.