The HIsarna off-gas system wall is a cooling jacket made of cooling pipes arranged in the radial direction and in a circular pattern. Part of the off-gas system cooling pipes are isolated using a low-thermal-conductivity refractory material to protect the cooling pipe from melting and thermal stresses. During long runs and due to thermomechanical stresses, the refractory material is lost, and its thickness is reduced. It is possible to measure the thickness of the refractory layer only during shutdown, which is a disadvantage during long runs. The aim is to investigate the possibility of predicting the thickness of the refractory material by using other parameters that are possible to measure during the operation. A combination of FEM and CFD modeling is used to develop a methodology for detailed wall modeling and refractory material loss prediction. Finite element method (FEM) analysis is used to obtain the thermal properties of the wall using detailed geometries for variable refractory thickness. The obtained properties are then used to build CFD models to study the effect of refractory thickness on wall heat loss, temperature and composition profiles. The proposed procedure is validated against the plant measurement, and according to the findings, it is possible to relate the wall thickness to measured parameters such as heat loss through the walls, temperature and carbon conversion.