YV
Yvar S.W. Vliex
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The space industry is growing rapidly, and over the coming years the number of annual rocket launches is expected to increase further. This increases the sector's emissions and environmental effects, both of which are not yet comprehensively understood. Using open-sourced data we develop a four-dimensional emission inventory for spaceflight activities in 2022, incorporating emissions from re-entry and plume chemistry. We assess their effects on the stratospheric composition and radiative forcing using the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. We find that spaceflight emissions lead to a annual global column ozone loss of 85.6 mDU and a net radiative forcing of 4.1 (Formula presented.). The majority (87.7%) of ozone depletion is driven by (Formula presented.) emissions from re-entry, and we show that the inclusion of plume chemistry reduces global ozone depletion by 17.1% and radiative forcing by 29.1%. Among individual propellant types, solid propellant has the largest impact in terms of ozone depletion, causing a reduction of 48.3 mDU per Gg of payload, while RP1-fueled rockets contribute the most to radiative forcing, at 1.9 (Formula presented.) per Gg of payload. Our results highlight the need to consider and accurately model re-entry emissions, engine plume reactions and their interactions.
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The space industry is growing rapidly, and over the coming years the number of annual rocket launches is expected to increase further. This increases the sector's emissions and environmental effects, both of which are not yet comprehensively understood. Using open-sourced data we develop a four-dimensional emission inventory for spaceflight activities in 2022, incorporating emissions from re-entry and plume chemistry. We assess their effects on the stratospheric composition and radiative forcing using the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. We find that spaceflight emissions lead to a annual global column ozone loss of 85.6 mDU and a net radiative forcing of 4.1 (Formula presented.). The majority (87.7%) of ozone depletion is driven by (Formula presented.) emissions from re-entry, and we show that the inclusion of plume chemistry reduces global ozone depletion by 17.1% and radiative forcing by 29.1%. Among individual propellant types, solid propellant has the largest impact in terms of ozone depletion, causing a reduction of 48.3 mDU per Gg of payload, while RP1-fueled rockets contribute the most to radiative forcing, at 1.9 (Formula presented.) per Gg of payload. Our results highlight the need to consider and accurately model re-entry emissions, engine plume reactions and their interactions.