Dutch municipalities have a vital role in creating policy concerning natural gas replacement with sustainable sources in the built environment by 2050, i.e., the so-called heat transition. Over the years, information provision from research and consultants to municipal policymaking in the heat transition has covered mainly the techno-economic dimension. However, a gap remains in the social information provision which enables more comprehensive and inclusive decision-making. This study answers the following research question: What social aspects do municipal policymakers need to consider in municipal heat transition policymaking? We first conducted a systematic literature review concerning energy users' social drivers to transition from natural gas. Second, we conducted a single case study on the policymaking process of heat transition projects in the municipality of Zoetermeer in the Netherlands. The case study involved heat transition actors with various roles in municipal decision-making, including municipal policymakers, researchers, corporations and citizens. Then we developed a framework of the social drivers of energy users to transition from natural gas. Finally, this framework was enriched in an ex-ante evaluation in a semi-structured workshop. Our study shows that energy users' social drivers can be categorized as behavioural belief, normative belief, and control belief. These social drivers combined with the techno-economic aspects shape the energy users' participation in the heat transformation.

In 2018, the Dutch national government announced its decision to end natural gas extraction. This decision posed a challenge for local governments (municipalities); they have to organise a heat supply that is natural gas-free. Energy models can decrease the complexity of this challenge, but some challenges hinder their effective use in decision-making. The main research question of this paper is: What are the perceived advantages and limitations of energy models used by municipalities within their data-driven decision-making process concerning the natural-gas free heating transition? To answer this question, literature on energy models, data-driven policy design and modelling practices were reviewed, and based on this, nine propositions were formulated. The propositions were tested by reflecting on data from case studies of ten municipalities, including 21 experts interviews. Results show that all municipalities investigated, use or are planning to use modelling studies to develop planning documents of their own, and that more than half of the municipalities use modelling studies at some point in their local heating projects. Perceived advantages of using energy models were that the modelling process provides perspective for action, financial and socio-economic insights, transparency and legitimacy and means to start useful discussions. Perceived limitations include that models and modelling results were considered too abstract for analysis of local circumstances, not user-friendly and highly complex. All municipalities using modelling studies were found to hire external expertise, indicating that the knowledge and skill level that municipal officials have is insufficient to model independently.