Most Dutch bridges, constructed in the 1960s, are reaching the end of their technical lifespan, raising urgent challenges for renewal and renovation. Planning under these conditions is complicated by deep uncertainty, characterised by limited knowledge of current structural conditions, unpredictable future demands, and divergent stakeholder perspectives.

This thesis explores the applicability of Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) as a framework for managing deep uncertainty in the Renewal and Renovation (R&R) program led by Rijkswaterstaat. Using a Design Science Research approach, the study combines literature review, case study analysis, and expert interviews to identify key drivers, enablers, and barriers in bridge renewal. Adaptive pathways were developed to map possible sequences of preservation, mitigation, renovation, and renewal actions, supported by adaptation tipping points and monitoring indicators.

A demonstration with fictional bridge portfolios illustrates how adaptive pathways enable prioritisation, capacity-driven planning, and cross-project learning. The evaluation shows that adaptive pathways complement life cycle management by integrating flexibility, sequencing, and preparedness into long-term infrastructure strategies.

The study concludes that adaptive pathways can support Rijkswaterstaat in navigating uncertainty by promoting resilience, flexibility, and portfolio-based planning. Recommendations include categorizing bridges by shared challenges, adopting integrated cost–risk–performance indicators, developing flexible budget reserves, and using thresholds as triggers for action.