The steel industry is undergoing a transition that is driven by two key factors: the decarbonisation of the production process and the promotion of circularity. This transition involves a shift from coal to renewable energy sources for decarbonisation purposes and from iron ore to scrap-based steelmaking, thereby facilitating the transition to a circular economy. In this context, the availability and quality of steel scrap become critical factors in facilitating the transition to scrap-based steelmaking. This master thesis employed a dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) to assess steel and scrap metabolism in Europe, focusing on trade impacts, scrap sorting, and steel production methods. Three scenarios, no trade deficit(1), business-as-usual trade (2), and high trade deficit (3) were analysed, alongside improved scrap sorting strategies. Key findings indicate that a circular steel industry requires a shift to electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking with minimal trade deficits to ensure high-quality scrap availability. Achieving an 80% intermediate level sorting rate for end-of-life steel scrap by 2050 is critical for closing the loop on steel production. Additionally, optimizing scrap distribution within Europe is essential to prevent downcycling and reduce tramp element accumulation. The study underscores the need for Europe to support global sustainable steel production as part of climate responsibility. Future research should refine key assumptions, conduct sensitivity analyses, and enhance scrap categorization and sorting data.
The model, code, and data are available in the supplementary materials.