We introduce a distributionally robust minimium mean square error estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to recover an unknown signal from a noisy observation. The proposed model can be viewed as a zero-sum game between a statistician choosing an estimator—that is, a measurable function of the observation—and a fictitious adversary choosing a prior—that is, a pair of signal and noise distributions ranging over independent Wasserstein balls—with the goal to minimize and maximize the expected squared estimation error, respectively. We show that, if the Wasserstein balls are centered at normal distributions, then the zero-sum game admits a Nash equilibrium, by which the players’ optimal strategies are given by an affine estimator and a normal prior, respectively. We further prove that this Nash equilibrium can be computed by solving a tractable convex program. Finally, we develop a Frank–Wolfe algorithm that can solve this convex program orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art general-purpose solvers. We show that this algorithm enjoys a linear convergence rate and that its direction-finding subproblems can be solved in quasi-closed form.

In data-driven inverse optimization an observer aims to learn the preferences of an agent who solves a parametric optimization problem depending on an exogenous signal. Thus, the observer seeks the agent’s objective function that best explains a historical sequence of signals and corresponding optimal actions. We focus here on situations where the observer has imperfect information, that is, where the agent’s true objective function is not contained in the search space of candidate objectives, where the agent suffers from bounded rationality or implementation errors, or where the observed signal-response pairs are corrupted by measurement noise. We formalize this inverse optimization problem as a distributionally robust program minimizing the worst-case risk that the predicted decision (i.e., the decision implied by a particular candidate objective) differs from the agent’s actual response to a random signal. We show that our framework offers rigorous out-of-sample guarantees for different loss functions used to measure prediction errors and that the emerging inverse optimization problems can be exactly reformulated as (or safely approximated by) tractable convex programs when a new suboptimality loss function is used. We show through extensive numerical tests that the proposed distributionally robust approach to inverse optimization attains often better out-of-sample performance than the state-of-the-art approaches.