The rapid energy transition in the Netherlands, coupled with decades of regulations prioritizing cost-efficiency over future capacity investments in the low-voltage (LV) grids, has resulted in an overwhelming number of LV grids desperately requiring capacity upgrades. Dutch regional grid operators have been making significant efforts to proactively upgrade neighborhood grids, while managing significant resource limitations. To ensure that limited resources are well spent, Dutch regional grid operators are employing novel prioritization methods, to determine a sequence of neighborhoods that should receive capacity upgrades. This thesis investigates how one of these Dutch regional grid operators, Stedin, can ensure the effectiveness of the prioritization of investment in the LV grids in neighborhoods amidst emerging uncertainties from regulatory, policy and market developments. The primary objective of this study is to provide Stedin and other regional grid operators with actionable recommendations that can improve the robustness of prioritization methods.
To achieve this objective an exploratory approach is taken, combining a literature review of prioritization strategies in large infrastructure projects, extensive desk research into practices by Dutch grid operators, expert interviews to get a detailed understanding of Stedin’s prioritization method, and an analysis of uncertainties emerging from the energy transition.
The main findings reveal that while Stedin’s current method incorporates proven prioritization approaches, including risk assessment, cost-benefit analysis, and a proactive approach, its heavy reliance on scenarios designed in collaboration with Netbeheer Nederland introduces significant risks due to oversimplification of the energy transition. Several practical recommendations were developed that can be considered by Stedin to improve the robustness of its prioritization method amidst a rapidly developing energy landscape. The main recommendations include reducing dependency on the scenarios, maintaining a proactive approach, and improved collaboration with key stakeholders. These recommendations could not only strengthen Stedin’s prioritization method but also offer insights for other grid operators navigating similar challenges.