Contaminant leaks released from landfills are a threat to groundwater quality. The groundwater monitoring systems installed in the vicinity of such facilities are vital. In this study the detection probability of a contaminant plume released from a landfill has been investigated by means of both a simulation and an analytical model for both homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifer conditions. Since the detection probability is a sensitive quantity, we first compare the two methods for homogeneous aquifer conditions to assess the errors that are encountered by performing simulations. The analysis shows that the simulation model yields the detection probabilities of a contaminant plume at a given monitoring well quite well in the homogeneous case. For heterogeneous aquifers we apply the approximated analytical model based on macro-dispersivities. Here we find that this model is insufficient in monitoring system design, since the obtained analytical values of the detection probabilities at a given monitoring well differ significantly from those computed by simulation.