Stratospheric aerosol injection could mitigate harmful effects of global warming, but could have undesirable side effects, such as warming the stratosphere and depleting the ozone layer. We explore the potential benefits of solid alumina and calcite particles as alternatives to sulfate aerosols by using an experimentally informed aerosol-chemistry-climate model. Compared to sulfur dioxide, injection of solids reduces stratospheric warming by up to 70% and diffuse radiation by up to 40%, highlighting their potential benefits. Achieving −1 W m⁻² of radiative forcing would likely result in very small ozone changes, but sizable uncertainties remain. These arise from poorly understood heterogeneous chemical and microphysical processes, which, under less likely assumptions, could lead to larger global ozone column changes between −14% and +4%. Our work provides recommendations for improving the understanding of stratospheric aerosol injection using materials other than sulfur dioxide, and underscores the need for kinetic laboratory studies.

Recent studies have suggested that injection of solid particles such as alumina and calcite particles for stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) instead of sulfur-based injections could reduce some of the adverse side effects of SAI such as ozone depletion and stratospheric heating. Here, we present a version of the global aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2 and the Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 which incorporate a solid-particle microphysics scheme for assessment of SAI of solid particles. Microphysical interactions of the solid particle with the stratospheric sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code (RTC) for the first time within an ESM. Therefore, the model allows simulation of heterogeneous chemistry at the particle surface as well as feedbacks between microphysics, chemistry, radiation and climate. We show that sulfur-based SAI results in a doubling of the stratospheric aerosol burden compared to the same mass injection rate of calcite and alumina particles with a radius of 240 nm. Most of the sulfuric acid aerosol mass resulting from SO₂ injection does not need to be lifted to the stratosphere but is formed after in situ oxidation and subsequent water uptake in the stratosphere. Therefore, to achieve the same radiative forcing, larger injection rates are needed for calcite and alumina particle injection than for sulfur-based SAI. The stratospheric sulfur cycle would be significantly perturbed, with a reduction in stratospheric sulfuric acid burden by 53 %, when injecting 5 Mtyr^-1 (megatons per year) of alumina or calcite particles of 240 nm radius. We show that alumina particles will acquire a sulfuric acid coating equivalent to about 10 nm thickness if the sulfuric acid is equally distributed over the whole available particle surface area in the lower stratosphere. However, due to the steep contact angle of sulfuric acid on alumina particles, the sulfuric acid coating would likely not cover the entire alumina surface, which would result in available surface for heterogeneous reactions other than the ones on sulfuric acid. When applying realistic uptake coefficients of 1.0, 10^-5 and 10^-4 for H₂SO₄, HCl and HNO₃, respectively, the same scenario with injections of calcite particles results in 94 % of the particle mass remaining in the form of CaCO₃. This likely keeps the optical properties of the calcite particles intact but could significantly alter the heterogeneous reactions occurring on the particle surfaces. The major process uncertainties of solid-particle SAI are (1) the solid-particle microphysics in the injection plume and degree of agglomeration of solid particles on the sub-ESM grid scale, (2) the scattering properties of the resulting agglomerates, (3) heterogeneous chemistry on the particle surface, and (4) aerosol-cloud interactions. These uncertainties can only be addressed with extensive, coordinated experimental and modelling research efforts. The model presented in this work offers a useful tool for sensitivity studies and incorporating new experimental results on SAI of solid particles.

This paper features the new atmosphere-ocean-aerosol-chemistry-climate model, SOlar Climate Ozone Links (SOCOL) v4.0, and its validation. The new model was built by interactively coupling the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) (T63, L47) with the chemistry (99 species) and size-resolving (40 bins) sulfate aerosol microphysics modules from the aerosol-chemistry-climate model, SOCOL-AERv2. We evaluate its performance against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation, temperature, and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. We show that SOCOLv4.0 captures the low- and midlatitude stratospheric ozone well in terms of the climatological state, variability and evolution. The model provides an accurate representation of climate change, showing a global surface warming trend consistent with observations as well as realistic cooling in the stratosphere caused by greenhouse gas emissions, although, as in previous model versions, a too-fast residual circulation and exaggerated mixing in the surf zone are still present. The stratospheric sulfur budget for moderate volcanic activity is well represented by the model, albeit with slightly underestimated aerosol lifetime after major eruptions. The presence of the interactive ocean and a successful representation of recent climate and ozone layer trends make SOCOLv4.0 ideal for studies devoted to future ozone evolution and effects of greenhouse gases and ozone-destroying substances, as well as the evaluation of potential solar geoengineering measures through sulfur injections. Potential further model improvements could be to increase the vertical resolution, which is expected to allow better meridional transport in the stratosphere, as well as to update the photolysis calculation module and budget of mesospheric odd nitrogen. In summary, this paper demonstrates that SOCOLv4.0 is well suited for applications related to the stratospheric ozone and sulfate aerosol evolution, including its participation in ongoing and future model intercomparison projects.

Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NO_x, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NO_x emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NO_x; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NO_x. Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NO_x remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NO_x, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.

Climate change is a challenge to society and to cope with requires assessment tools which are suitable to evaluate new technology options with respect to their impact on global climate. Here we present AirClim, a model which comprises a linearisation of atmospheric processes from the emission to radiative forcing, resulting in an estimate in near surface temperature change, which is presumed to be a reasonable indicator for climate change. The model is designed to be applicable to aircraft technology, i.e. the climate agents CO₂, H₂O, CH₄ and O₃ (latter two resulting from NO_x-emissions) and contrails are taken into account. AirClim combines a number of precalculated atmospheric data with aircraft emission data to obtain the temporal evolution of atmospheric concentration changes, radiative forcing and temperature changes. These precalculated data are derived from 25 steady-state simulations for the year 2050 with the climate-chemistry model E39/C, prescribing normalised emissions of nitrogen oxides and water vapour at various atmospheric regions. The results show that strongest climate impacts (year 2100) from ozone changes occur for emissions in the tropical upper troposphere (60 mW/m²; 80 mK for 1 TgN/year emitted) and from methane changes from emissions in the middle tropical troposphere (−2.7% change in methane lifetime; ĝ€"30 mK per TgN/year). For short-lived species (e.g. ozone, water vapour, methane) individual perturbation lifetimes are derived depending on the region of emission. A comparison of this linearisation approach with results from a comprehensive climate-chemistry model shows reasonable agreement with respect to concentration changes, radiative forcing, and temperature changes. For example, the total impact of a supersonic fleet on radiative forcing (mainly water vapour) is reproduced within 10%. A wide range of application is demonstrated.