Coastal flood risk is expected to increase over the 21st century as a result of climate change and economic growth, which makes low-lying regions especially vulnerable. Global screening techniques are needed for a more widespread use of NBS in these flood prone coastal regions. This research expands on the current assessments done by developing a quantitative global screening method that evaluates the costs and benefits for two defence approaches; 1) increasing the dike height, 2) a hybrid solution that includes increasing of the dike height in combination with restoring mangroves and/or corals. The screening method is based on Van Oord’s Climate Risk Overview tool, in which, globally, coastal hotspots are indicated that have a predefined risk of flooding in the 21st century. The steps added by my screening method include; 1) determining which
NBS can be applied depending on the local physical conditions, 2) determining the costs for both NBS and conventional hard solutions, 3) determining the increase/decrease in flood risk of the different interventions for current and future conditions, 4) monetizing additional benefits that NBS provide, 5) assessing the benefits and costs to determine if NBS are the most optimal solution. The results of this global method are inherently limited by several simplifying assumptions and by the lack of high resolution local data, which influences the cost/risk estimates and corresponding site identification. For 2.6-3.3% of the coastal hotspots, NBS can reduce the investment costs in addition to being cost-beneficial. There is potential for expanding this work by adding sea grasses, salt marshes and oyster reefs as vegetated foreshore systems, and by including more thresholds to make the criterion for potential sites to apply NBS more strict.
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The central Thermo Electrico Antonio Guiteras (CTE Antonio Guiteras) is a thermoelectric power plant located in the bay of Matanzas. In 2017, hurricane Irma passed the north coast of Cuba and destroyed the primary sea defense in front of the CTE, causing major damage to the plant. The power plant is renovated, and a new and improved sea defense is currently being constructed.
The goal of this report is to answer the following question: to what extend is the power plant protected during extreme weather conditions and what improvements are needed to ensure that the power plant can remain operational during these extreme weather conditions?
To determine what the hydrodynamic and meteorological effects are of a extreme weather event such as a tropical cyclone, a synthetic tropical cyclone is created. This synthetic hurricane must generate large significant waves in combination with a big storm surge, to have severe impact on the CTE. It must also have a significant probability of occurrence. To determine this normative synthetic hurricane, multiple synthetic hurricanes are simulated in Delft3D and XBeach and their corresponding return period is determined. As Irma significantly damaged the CTE, this hurricane is taken as the basis for all synthetic hurricane combinations. The hurricanes each vary from Irma in maximum wind velocities, forward speeds and their tracks.
To simulate the physics of hurricane Irma, a spiderweb grid is created at the locations of the hourly best track of Irma. This is then used in the Delft3D model as input for the pressure and wind fields of the hurricane. The output of the Delft3D model is validated with recorded data of observations stations in the Gulf of Mexico. Recorded water levels and wind speeds of buoys near Key West are used for validation. XBeach is used to simulate the nearshore physical processes. XBeach can more accurately predict wave propagation and includes higher order processes in its simulation. As input for the XBeach model, the output of the Delft3D model is used.
After running all the synthetic hurricanes in Delft3D, the five resulting normative hurricanes are run in XBeach. The synthetic hurricane that creates the largest significant wave heights at the project area is taken as a basis for the final design. This normative hurricane gives a maximum significant wave height of 8.8 m with a corresponding storm surge of 1.61 m at the location of the CTE.
With these values a research on the current defense wall is done. Ultimately for a part of the sea defense an adjustment on the existing defense wall is proposed. A second but lower vertical wall with a bigger bullnose is placed in front of the existing one. This creates a triangular shaped stilling basin, from which the water can flow out at the seaside of the wall. For the other part of the sea defense no adjustments on the wall are proposed but an improvement of the existing drainage capacity is proposed. The existing drainage channel, which lies behind this section, is widened and deepened. Additionally, a drainage wall is built around the powerplant, which diverts the overland flow caused by intense rainfall into the drainage channel.
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