Mangroves are recognised for the ecosystem services they provide, yet practitioners lack guidance for quantifying these services over time. To overcome this knowledge gap, this study developed a numerical tool, the mangrove Lifecycle Ecosystem Analysis and Forecasting (LEAF) model, that simulates the growth and mortality of mangroves across all lifecycle stages (seedling to senescence). To test model functionality, the LEAF model (version 1.0, dated January 31, 2025) was coupled to Delft3D Flexible Mesh, where individual mangrove size, impacts of extreme events, biomass, and coastal protection parameters were monitored. Cross-shore mangrove distribution was successfully predicted in four estuary typologies over temporal domains of 5–12 years. Sensitivity analyses revealed the timing and duration of the fruiting window, inundation free period, and inundation depth as critical to forest development. Results highlight the need for field data acquisition to target these thresholds, further validate mangrove growth, and expand the model to other species and locations worldwide.

Mangroves are increasingly recognised for their ecosystem services, including their capacity to store carbon and adapt to climate pressures by stabilising shorelines and acting as storm barriers. To quantify these services, relevant parameters such as mangrove biomass and drag coefficients have been calculated using allometric equations fitted to field measurements of physical mangrove attributes. However, previous research to quantify mangrove attributes has involved time-consuming hand measurements and long processing times associated with terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). To more efficiently capture and process mangrove attributes, such as the density, diameter, height, and projected area of stems and roots, a novel method for collecting mangrove field data using TLS was developed. Recorded TLS data were compared to field measurements conducted in 12 Avicennia marina forests across 10 estuaries and 4 unique estuary typologies. The results demonstrated the reliable estimation of mangrove attributes using TLS and revealed a link between these attributes and estuarine geomorphology. Mangrove stems were accurately identified in all estuary typologies, with attribute estimations more accurate for forests in Drowned River Valleys (DRVs). A sensitivity analysis revealed that 10–20 trees for DRVs and 35–45 trees for barrier estuaries require point cloud processing to characterise a forest area of 400–1300 m² and to achieve convergent stem diameter and tree height results. The method presented herein offers an efficient way to quantify aboveground stem and root attributes and the surface area of mangrove trees. This data can be used to characterise mangrove forests worldwide and provide fundamental attributes for quantifying ecosystem services.

Estuaries worldwide are experiencing increasing threats from climate change, particularly from the compounding effects of sea level rise (SLR) and varying magnitude of river inflows. Understanding the tidal response of estuaries to these effects can guide future management and help assess ecological concerns. However, there is limited existing understanding on how estuarine tidal dynamics may respond to the compounding effects of SLR and altered riverine inflows in different estuaries. To partially address this knowledge gap, this study used data analysis and scrutinised idealised hydrodynamic models of different estuary shapes and boundary conditions to (i) identify broad effects of SLR on estuarine tidal dynamics under various river inflow conditions, (ii) determine how longitudinal cross-sections are impacted by these effects, and (iii) highlight some implications for environmental risk management. Results indicated that short- to moderate-length, high convergent estuaries experience the greatest and short- to moderate-length prismatic and low convergent estuaries experience the least variations in their overall tidal dynamics (i.e., tidal range, current velocity, and asymmetry). These variations were most evident in estuaries with large riverine inflows and macrotidal conditions. Compounding effects of SLR and altered riverine inflows induced spatially heterogenous changes to tidal range, current velocity, and asymmetry, with transects nearest to the estuary mouth/head and at a three-quarter estuary length (measured from estuary mouth) identified as the most and the least vulnerable zones, respectively. These findings provide an initial broad assessment of some effects of climate change in estuaries and may help to prioritise future investigations.