Individuals can hold contrasting views about distinct times: for example, dread over tomorrow’s appointment and excitement about next summer’s vacation. Yet, psychological measures of optimism often assess only one time point or ask participants to generalize about their future. Here, we address these limitations by developing the optimism curve, a measure of societal optimism that compares positivity toward different future times that was inspired by the Treasury bond yield curve. By performing sentiment analysis on over 3.5 million tweets that reference 23 future time points (2 days to 30 years), we measured how positivity differs across short-, medium-, and longer-term future references. We found a consistent negative association between positivity and the distance into the future referenced: From August 2017 to February 2020, the long-term future was discussed less positively than the short-term future. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this relationship inverted, indicating declining near-future- but stable distant-future-optimism. Our results demonstrate that individuals hold differentiated attitudes toward the near and distant future that shift in aggregate over time in response to external events. The optimism curve uniquely captures these shifting attitudes and may serve as a useful tool that can expand existing psychometric measures of optimism.

Natural disasters can have devastating and long-lasting effects on a community’s emotional well-being. These effects may be distributed unequally, affecting some communities more profoundly and possibly over longer time periods than others. Here, we analyze the effects of four major US hurricanes, namely, Irma, Harvey, Florence, and Dorian on the emotional well-being of the affected communities and regions. We show that a community’s emotional response to a hurricane event can be measured from the content of social media that its population posted before, during, and after the hurricane. For each hurricane making landfall in the US, we observe a significant decrease in sentiment in the affected areas before and during the hurricane followed by a rapid return to pre-hurricane baseline, often within 1-2 weeks. However, some communities exhibit markedly different rates of decline and return to previous equilibrium levels. This points towards the possibility of measuring the emotional resilience of communities from the dynamics of their online emotional response.

Individuals with depression are prone to maladaptive patterns of thinking, known as cognitive distortions, whereby they think about themselves, the world, and the future in overly negative and inaccurate ways. These distortions are associated with marked changes in an individual’s mood, behavior, and language. We hypothesize that societies can undergo similar changes in their collective psychology that are reflected in historical records of language use. Here, we investigate the prevalence of textual markers of cognitive distortions in over 14 million books for the past 125 y and observe a surge of their prevalence since the 1980s, to levels exceeding those of the Great Depression and both World Wars. This pattern does not seem to be driven by changes in word meaning, publishing and writing standards, or the Google Books sample. Our results suggest a recent societal shift toward language associated with cognitive distortions and internalizing disorders.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic led to mental health fallout in the US; yet research about mental health and COVID-19 primarily rely on samples that may overlook variance in regional mental health. Indeed, between-city comparisons of mental health decline in the US may provide further insight into how the pandemic is disproportionately affecting at-risk groups. Purpose This study leverages social media and COVID-19-city infection data to measure the longitudinal (January 22- July 31, 2020) mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 metropolitan areas. Methods We used longitudinal VADER sentiment analysis of Twitter timelines (January-July 2020) for cohorts in 20 metropolitan areas to examine mood changes over time. We then conducted simple and multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions to examine the relationship between COVID-19 infection city data, population, population density, and city demographics on sentiment across those 20 cities. Results Longitudinal sentiment tracking showed mood declines over time. The univariate OLS regression highlighted a negative linear relationship between COVID-19 city data and online sentiment (β = -.017). Residing in predominantly white cities had a protective effect against COVID-19 driven negative mood (β = .0629, p < .001). Discussion Our results reveal that metropolitan areas with larger communities of color experienced a greater subjective well-being decline than predominantly white cities, which we attribute to clinical and socioeconomic correlates that place communities of color at greater risk of COVID-19. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic is a driver of declining US mood in 20 metropolitan cities. Other factors, including social unrest and local demographics, may compound and exacerbate mental health outlook in racially diverse cities.