H.N. Kekkonen
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Recent advancements in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and surrogate modelling have significantly enhanced the feasibility of Bayesian analysis across engineering fields. However, the selection and integration of surrogate models and cutting-edge MCMC algorithms, often depend on ad-hoc decisions. A systematic assessment of their combined influence on accuracy and efficiency is notably lacking. The present work offers a comprehensive comparative study, employing a scalable case study in computational mechanics focused on the inference of spatially varying material parameters, that sheds light on the impact of methodological choices for surrogate modelling and sampling. We show that a priori training of the surrogate model introduces large errors in the posterior estimation even in low to moderate dimensions. We introduce a simple active learning strategy based on the path of the MCMC algorithm that is superior to all a priori trained models, and determine its training data requirements. We demonstrate that the choice of the MCMC algorithm has only a small influence on the amount of training data but no significant influence on the accuracy of the resulting surrogate model. Further, we show that the accuracy of the posterior estimation largely depends on the surrogate model, but not even a tailored surrogate guarantees convergence of the MCMC. Finally, we identify the forward model as the bottleneck in the inference process, not the MCMC algorithm. While related works focus on employing advanced MCMC algorithms, we demonstrate that the training data requirements render the surrogate modelling approach infeasible before the benefits of these gradient-based MCMC algorithms on cheap models can be reaped.
The idea of knitting or crocheting mathematical or scientific models is not new, though it has not been used very widely. The Scottish chemist Alexander Crum Brown knitted several interlinked surfaces to visualize the ideas presented in the late nineteenth century in his paper “On a Case of Interlacing Surfaces” [2]. Miles Reid wrote a paper on knitting mathematical surfaces in the 1970s [13] that inspired several new patterns, including a Möbius scarf and a Klein bottle. The crocheted hyperbolic surfaces were introduced by Daina Taimina in 1997 [5], and her idea led to a bloom of so-called hyperbolic crochet. A few years after the paper on hyperbolic crochet appeared, Hinke Osinga and Bernd Krauskopf described how to crochet an approximation of the Lorenz manifold [10]. See also [14] for further examples of mathematical crochet.
Both the hyperbolic plane and the Lorenz manifold require precise crochet instructions. The hyperbolic plane has constant negative Gaussian curvature, and so it looks the same at every point. This allows for a rather simple pattern that can be worked in rounds in which after a few setup rounds, every nth stitch is doubled. The Lorenz manifold is a less-regular surface, and it requires a much more complex pattern of stitches. The model is also worked in rounds, but unlike the hyperbolic surface, it requires detailed instructions on when to add or remove stitches. It takes full advantage of the versatility of crocheting, requiring three different types of stitches, which allows different parts of a round to have different heights. In this paper we consider Bour’s minimal surfaces
, which are “crochet symmetric,” allowing for simple crochet instructions (excluding possible intersections) and requiring only one type of stitch, with the added or removed stitches evenly spaced across a round. ...
The idea of knitting or crocheting mathematical or scientific models is not new, though it has not been used very widely. The Scottish chemist Alexander Crum Brown knitted several interlinked surfaces to visualize the ideas presented in the late nineteenth century in his paper “On a Case of Interlacing Surfaces” [2]. Miles Reid wrote a paper on knitting mathematical surfaces in the 1970s [13] that inspired several new patterns, including a Möbius scarf and a Klein bottle. The crocheted hyperbolic surfaces were introduced by Daina Taimina in 1997 [5], and her idea led to a bloom of so-called hyperbolic crochet. A few years after the paper on hyperbolic crochet appeared, Hinke Osinga and Bernd Krauskopf described how to crochet an approximation of the Lorenz manifold [10]. See also [14] for further examples of mathematical crochet.
Both the hyperbolic plane and the Lorenz manifold require precise crochet instructions. The hyperbolic plane has constant negative Gaussian curvature, and so it looks the same at every point. This allows for a rather simple pattern that can be worked in rounds in which after a few setup rounds, every nth stitch is doubled. The Lorenz manifold is a less-regular surface, and it requires a much more complex pattern of stitches. The model is also worked in rounds, but unlike the hyperbolic surface, it requires detailed instructions on when to add or remove stitches. It takes full advantage of the versatility of crocheting, requiring three different types of stitches, which allows different parts of a round to have different heights. In this paper we consider Bour’s minimal surfaces
, which are “crochet symmetric,” allowing for simple crochet instructions (excluding possible intersections) and requiring only one type of stitch, with the added or removed stitches evenly spaced across a round.
We propose alternatives to Bayesian prior distributions that are frequently used in the study of inverse problems. Our aim is to construct priors that have similar good edge-preserving properties as total variation or Mumford-Shah priors but correspond to well-defined infinite-dimensional random variables, and can be approximated by finite-dimensional random vari-ables. We introduce a new wavelet-based model, where the non-zero coefficients are chosen in a systematic way so that prior draws have certain fractal behaviour. We show that realisations of this new prior take values in Besov spaces and have singularities only on a small set τ with a certain Hausdorff dimension. We also introduce an efficient algorithm for calculating the MAP estimator, arising from the the new prior, in the denoising problem.
We consider the statistical non-linear inverse problem of recovering the absorption term f > 0 in the heat equation {∂tu-12Δu+fu=0onO×(0,T)u=gon∂ O×(0,T)u(·,0)=u0onO, where O ϵ ℝd is a bounded domain, T < ∞ is a fixed time, and g, u 0 are given sufficiently smooth functions describing boundary and initial values respectively. The data consists of N discrete noisy point evaluations of the solution u f on O×(0,T) . We study the statistical performance of Bayesian nonparametric procedures based on a large class of Gaussian process priors. We show that, as the number of measurements increases, the resulting posterior distributions concentrate around the true parameter generating the data, and derive a convergence rate for the reconstruction error of the associated posterior means. We also consider the optimality of the contraction rates and prove a lower bound for the minimax convergence rate for inferring f from the data, and show that optimal rates can be achieved with truncated Gaussian priors.
A key observation, which guides us through the subsequent analysis, is that such a general noise model can be understood with the same setting as approximate source conditions (while a standard model of bounded noise is related directly to classical source conditions). Based on this insight we obtain a quite general existence result for regularized variational problems and derive error estimates in terms of Bregman distances. The latter are specialized for the particularly important cases of one- and p-homogeneous regularization functionals.
As a natural further step we study stochastic noise models and in particular white noise, for which we derive error estimates in terms of the expectation of the Bregman distance. The finiteness of certain expectations leads to a novel class of abstract smoothness conditions on the forward operator, which can be easily interpreted in the Hilbert space case. We finally exemplify the approach and in particular the conditions for popular examples of regularization functionals given by squared norm, Besov norm and total variation, respectively. ...
A key observation, which guides us through the subsequent analysis, is that such a general noise model can be understood with the same setting as approximate source conditions (while a standard model of bounded noise is related directly to classical source conditions). Based on this insight we obtain a quite general existence result for regularized variational problems and derive error estimates in terms of Bregman distances. The latter are specialized for the particularly important cases of one- and p-homogeneous regularization functionals.
As a natural further step we study stochastic noise models and in particular white noise, for which we derive error estimates in terms of the expectation of the Bregman distance. The finiteness of certain expectations leads to a novel class of abstract smoothness conditions on the forward operator, which can be easily interpreted in the Hilbert space case. We finally exemplify the approach and in particular the conditions for popular examples of regularization functionals given by squared norm, Besov norm and total variation, respectively.
The Bayesian approach to inverse problems is studied in the case where the forward map is a linear hypoelliptic pseudodifferential operator and measurement error is additive white Gaussian noise. The measurement model for an unknown Gaussian random variable U (x, w) is Mδ (y, w) = A (U (x, w)) + δ>(y, w), where A is a finitely many orders smoothing linear hypoelliptic operator and δ> 0 is the noise magnitude. The covariance operator CU of U is smoothing of order 2r, self-adjoint, injective and elliptic pseudodifferential operator. If ϵ was taking values in L2 then in Gaussian case solving the conditional mean (and maximum a posteriori) estimate is linked to solving the minimisation problem Tδ (mδ) = arg min μϵHr{ Au-mδ;2L 2+δ2CU -1/2u2L 2} However, Gaussian white noise does not take values in L2but in H-s where s>0 is big enough. A modification of the above approach to solve the inverse problem is presented, covering the case of white Gaussian measurement noise. Furthermore, the convergence of the conditional mean estimate to the correct solution as δ → 0 is proven in appropriate function spaces using microlocal analysis. Also the frequentist posterior contractions rates are studied.