Flood prediction is critical for emergency planning and response to mitigate human and economic losses. Traditional physics-based hydrodynamic models generate high-resolution flood maps using numerical methods requiring fine-grid discretization; which are computationally intensive and impractical for real-time large-scale applications. While recent studies have applied convolutional neural networks for flood map super-resolution with good accuracy and speed, they suffer from limited generalizability to unseen areas. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages latent diffusion models to perform super-resolution on coarse-grid flood maps, with the objective of achieving the accuracy of fine-grid flood maps while significantly reducing inference time. Experimental results demonstrate that latent diffusion models substantially decrease the computational time required to produce high-fidelity flood maps without compromising on accuracy, enabling their use in real-time flood risk management. Moreover, diffusion models exhibit superior generalizability across different physical locations, with transfer learning further accelerating adaptation to new geographic regions. Our approach also incorporates physics-informed inputs, addressing the common limitation of black-box behavior in machine learning, thereby enhancing interpretability. Code is available at https://github.com/neosunhan/flood-diff. ... Read more

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change. ... Read more