The sustainable development of groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions is a challenging task hindered by climate change and human activities. The rational utilization and management of groundwater resources is, therefore, dependent on an understanding of the influences of human and climatic factors on the spatial distribution of groundwater resources and their change over time. The thick Quaternary aquifers in the Yinchuan Basin, China were used herein as an example of how to quantitatively assess spatial and temporal trends in groundwater resources in response to human activities and climate change. A 3D transient groundwater flow model was constructed and used to simulate the evolution and spatial variability of hydrogeological processes from 1990 to 2020. By subsequently applying regime shift detection and correlation analysis to the simulation results, we found that: 1) groundwater storage was continuously depleted over the 30-year period, reaching a cumulative depletion of 1.89×109 m3; 2) human activities were mainly responsible for variations in regional hydrogeological processes for a period of up to 30 years. Climate only affected short-term interannual fluctuations in groundwater storage; 3) human activities (e.g., river water diversion and groundwater abstractions) were the decisive factors causing a continuous reduction of groundwater resources. A policy-driven reduction in water diversion from the Yellow River directly led to a significant drop in groundwater storage, which had a consequent effect on surface water and groundwater interactions and altered agricultural irrigation patterns (crop patterns and irrigation methods); 4) the amount of groundwater recharge from the Yellow River and local lakes increased from 1990 to 2020, whereas the discharge of groundwater to the Yellow River and lakes decreased.@en

A coupled regional and local model is required when groundwater flow and solute transport are to be simulated in local areas of interest with a finer grid while regional aquifer boundary and major stresses should be retained with a coarser grid. The coupled model should also maintain interactions between the regional and local flow systems. In the Beijing Plain (China), assessment of managed aquifer recharge (MAR), groundwater pollution caused by rivers, capture zone of well fields, and land subsidence at the cone of depression requires a coupled regional and local model. This study evaluates three methods for coupling regional and local flow models for simulating MAR in the Chaobai River catchment in the Beijing Plain. These methods are the conventional grid refinement (CGR) method, the local grid refinement (LGR) method and the unstructured grid (USG) method. The assessment included the comparison of the complexity of the coupled model construction, the goodness of fit of the computed and observed groundwater heads, the consistency of regional and local groundwater budgets, and the capture zone of a well filed influenced by the MAR site. The results indicated that the CGR method based on MODFLOW-2005 is the easiest to implement the coupled model, capable of reproducing regional and local groundwater heads and budget, and already coupled with density and viscosity dependent model codes for transport simulation. However, the CGR method inherits shortcomings of finite difference grids to create multiple local models with inefficient computing efforts. The USG method based on MODFLOW-USG has the advantage of creating multi-scale models and is flexible to simulate rivers, wells, irregular boundaries, heterogeneities and the MAR site. However, it is more difficult to construct the coupled models with the unstructured grids, therefore, a good graphic user interface is necessary for efficient model construction. The LGR method based on MODFLOW-LGR can be used to create multiple local models in uniform aquifer systems. So far, little effort has been devoted to upgrade the LGR method for complex aquifer structures and develop the coupled transport models.@en

Intensive groundwater exploitation has depleted groundwater storage and led to a series of geo-environmental problems in Beijing Plain, China. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) has been endorsed to mitigate the groundwater storage depletion and achieve groundwater sustainability. A pilot MAR has been tested in the Chaobai River catchment since 2015. An innovative large-scale MAR consisting of 9 cascade terraced infiltration ponds was proposed and its effectiveness was assessed in this study using an integrated modelling approach. The integrated model coupled the regional and local transient flow and transport processes. The transient regional flow model simulated historical groundwater level declines and storage depletion in the Beijing Plain from 1995 to 2018. The coupled regional and local flow model was used to simulate the pilot MAR test in the Chaobai River from 2015 to 2018. A significant groundwater level increase was observed nearby the pilot MAR since 2015. The transport model results indicate that approximately 40% of the infiltrated water was captured by pumping wells in the No.8 well field. The models were further used to assess the long-term effects of the large-scale MAR from 2020 to 2050. The simulation results show that the groundwater system will reach a new equilibrium state under the implementation of the large-scale MAR scheme. Almost 91% of the abstracted water in the No. 8 well field will come from the MAR infiltration. The proposed large-scale MAR is very effective in restoring the depleted aquifer storage and maintaining the groundwater abstraction in the No.8 well field. However, with the increase of the groundwater level, the infiltration rate of several ponds will decrease. Therefore, it is important to maintain a dynamic balance between artificial recharge and groundwater abstraction in order to achieve a sustainable long-term MAR operation in the region.@en

To cope with the groundwater depletion problem and achieve sustainable groundwater development, groundwater conservation measures and managed aquifer recharge (MAR) have been implemented worldwide. However, knowledge gaps exit how does the aquifer system respond to these interventions differently and if these interventions are adequate to lead to long-term sustainable groundwater development under future climate change. In Beijing Plain, two measures have been implemented: reduction of groundwater abstraction by substituting groundwater abstraction with transferred surface water and implementation of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) in two major rivers. This study aims to assess how do the shallow and deep aquifers respond to these measures and if these measures can lead to long-term sustainable groundwater development in Beijing Plain under future climate change. A 3-D transient groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to simulate groundwater level and budget changes from 2021 to 2050. The monthly groundwater recharge was estimated using the projected monthly precipitation from three downscaled regional climate models under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results show that declines in groundwater head and storage can be reversed with the combined two measures, thereby contributing to achieve sustainable groundwater development. The reduction of abstractions is a deciding measure to reverse the trend of groundwater depletion, especially in the deep confined aquifers, while large scale MAR schemes can restore the cones of depressions in shallow aquifers and maintain the groundwater abstraction. Climate variation has large impacts on groundwater resources, especially, consecutive dry years can cause rapid groundwater storage depletion. The projected monthly precipitation from 2021 to 2050 is not significantly different from the past. Therefore, the projected future precipitation has minor impacts on groundwater resources in the next 30 years. The findings from the study will support the Beijing municipality to maintain the tight control on groundwater abstraction and to implement large-scale MAR schemes in two rivers. This successful example will encourage managers of other heavily exploited aquifers to take similar measures to achieve sustainable groundwater development.@en

The Yongding River (Beijing, China) was dry most times of the year, and groundwater storage was severely depleted. To address this issue, a river rehabilitation project was initiated. A downstream environmental flow release (EFR) project from upstream reservoirs has been implemented since 2019. This study evaluated the impact of EFR by constructing transient groundwater-flow and numerical tracer transport models to simulate the hydrogeological responses to the water release events in 2019–2020. The study identified two factors that significantly influence the river leakage rate, which are operational factors (i.e., water release rate and duration) and physical factors (i.e., hydraulic properties of the riverbed, regional hydraulic gradients, and groundwater depth) that determine the maximum water availability for groundwater recharge and maximum infiltration capacity, respectively. Predictive modelling was performed to assess the long-term effects of the proposed EFR scheme from 2021 to 2050, which showed that groundwater levels along the river will increase by 10–20 m by 2050. Groundwater storage is expected to be largely recovered and groundwater/surface-water connectivity in the middle reach of the river will be restored. This restoration will not only maintain the environmental flow for the benefit of ecosystems but also enhance groundwater recharge, promoting sustainable groundwater development in the region. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of the proposed EFR scheme in achieving sustainable groundwater development in the region.@en

Three alternative groundwater flow models were evaluated for Beijing Plain, China. The first model (AM1) was constructed with the “thin layer approach” in which all 9 model layers, including five aquifers separated by four aquitards, are continuously present in the same model area. The second model (AM2) was constructed with the “quasi-3D approach” in which the hydrogeological formations were classified into five aquifer units consisting of mixed permeable and semi-permeable layers at different depth ranges. The third model (AM3) was constructed with the “true layer approach” in which aquifers and aquitards were defined according to hydrostratigraphic properties, and model layers are absent in the area where corresponding hydrogeological formations intersect bedrocks. All 3 models were calibrated with the parameter optimization method under the steady state flow condition with the same hydrological stresses and observation data. All three models fit to observations well with the similar calibration criteria values. Furthermore, AIC and BIC information criteria could not distinguish three alternative models. Only KIC could identify AM3 as the best model. Major differences of the three alternative models were identified from a hydrogeological perspective. The AM1 model depicted an illusion through contour maps that groundwater was present everywhere in the deep aquifers. The model computed larger vertical leakages because more abstraction rates were assigned improperly in deep aquifers. The AM2 model was able to compute regional groundwater balances and depicted spatial groundwater level variations. However, the AM2 model computed longer groundwater travel times around the wellfield and should not be used for the delineation of the well field protection zones and contaminant transport simulation. The AM3 model could not only compute the regional groundwater balances and describe spatial groundwater distribution in deep confined aquifers, but also delineate the capture zone of the wellfield. It can therefore be used for simulating contaminant transport. Furthermore, the AM3 model is suitable to construct a coupled regional and local flow model for simulating a managed aquifer recharge scheme.@en

This study explores the challenge of groundwater depletion in the Beijing Plain, a problem exacerbated by rapid socio-economic expansion and unsustainable groundwater abstraction. The core of this research is the development and application of multi-scale numerical groundwater flow and transport models to rigorously evaluate the measures implemented by the Beijing municipality. These measures include the strategic reduction of groundwater abstraction and the adoption of innovative water management practices such as Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) and Environmental Flow Release (EFR) operations. Through the development of various hydrogeological conceptual models and a number of multi-scale flow and transport models, the study has successfully simulated groundwater storage depletion in the past and assessed the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources, taking into account the impact of current measures and future climate changes. The findings highlight the crucial role of MAR operations in restoring depleted groundwater storage in the shallow aquifer and the essential need for reducing abstraction in the deep confined aquifers. This research not only supports the sustainable groundwater management strategy in Beijing but also provides a valuable framework for other urban areas worldwide facing similar challenges of groundwater depletion.@en