Multi-modal distributions of some physics-based model parameters are often encountered in engineering due to different situations such as a change in some environmental conditions, and the presence of some types of damage and non-linearity. In statistical model updating, for locally identifiable parameters, it can be anticipated that multi-modal posterior distributions would be found. The full characterization of these multi-modal distributions is important as methodologies for structural condition monitoring in structures are frequently based in the comparison of the damaged and healthy models of the structure. The characterization of posterior multi-modal distributions using state-of-the-art sampling techniques would require a large number of simulations of expensive-to-run physics-based models. Therefore, when a limited number of simulations can be run, as it often occurs in engineering, the traditional sampling techniques would not be able to capture accurately the multi-modal distributions. This could potentially lead to large numerical errors when assessing the performance of an engineering structure under uncertainty. Therefore, an approach is proposed for drastically reducing the number of models runs while yielding accurate estimates of highly multi-modal posterior distributions. This approach introduces a cyclical annealing schedule into the Variational Bayes Monte Carlo (VBMC) method to improve the algorithm's phase of exploration and the finding of high probability areas in the multi-modal posteriors throughout the different cycles. Three numerical and one experimental investigations are used to compare the proposed cyclical VBMC with the standard VBMC algorithm, the monotonic VBMC and the Transitional Ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TEMCMC). It is shown that the standard VBMC fails in capturing multi-modal posteriors as it is unable to escape already found regions of high posterior density. In the presence of highly multi-modal posteriors, the proposed cyclical VBMC algorithm outperforms all the other approaches in terms of accuracy of the resulting posterior, and number of model runs required.

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An approach is proposed for the evaluation of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the modal parameters for an ensemble of nominally identical structures when there is only access to a single structure and the dispersion parameter is known. The approach combines the Eigensystem realization algorithm on sets of dynamic data, with an explicit nonparametric probabilistic method. A single structure, either a mathematical model or a prototype, is used to obtain simulated data or measurements that are employed to build a discrete time state-space model description. The dispersion parameter is used to describe the uncertainty due to different sources such as the variability found in the population and the identification errors found in the noisy measurements from the experiments. With this approach, instead of propagating the uncertainties through the governing equations of the system, the distribution of the modal parameters of the whole ensemble is obtained by randomizing the matrices in the state-space model with an efficient procedure. The applicability of the approach is shown through the analysis of a two degrees-of-freedom mass-spring-damper system and a cantilever system. The results show that if the source of uncertainty is unknown and it is possible to specify an overall level of uncertainty, by having access to a single system's measurements, it is possible to evaluate the resulting PDFs on the modal parameters. It was also found that high values of the dispersion parameter may lead to nonphysical results such as negative damping ratios values.@en

Structural Health Monitoring uses data collected from sensors placed on structures to determine their operating condition and whether maintenance is required. Often, optimal sensor placement strategies are used to find the optimal locations for the identification of their modal properties, structural parameters and/or abnormal behaviours under the influence of model and measurement uncertainty. An approach that has been frequently used to solve the problem of sensor placement is the Bayesian experimental design. This approach chooses the locations using the data measured by the sensors to reduce the prior uncertainty of the parameters that are being inferred. The Bayesian experimental design minimizes the uncertainty of the parameters to be inferred through the use of metrics called utility functions. Most of these metrics are based on functions of the posterior distribution. In this paper, the use of three utility functions (Bayesian D-posterior precision, Bayesian A-posterior precision, and Expected Information Gain) is investigated for the problem of sensor placement. The case study chosen consists of a beam with translational and rotational springs connected to the ground subject to an impulsive load. The goal of the analysis is to select the most informative position of a sensor in order to update the distribution of two uncertain physical parameters of the beam based on natural frequencies extracted using the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm. It is shown that for the case investigated, the three utility functions yield the same optimal sensor location.@en