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D.K.A. Pham

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A case study in travel choice behaviour for Rijnenburg, Utrecht

Master thesis (2024) - D.K.A. Pham, B. van Arem, N. van Oort, A. Gavriilidou, Leon de Graaf, Lara Verhagen
In response to the growing housing shortage in the Netherlands, particularly in urban areas where land availability is constrained, local governments are increasingly considering urban expansion into peripheral areas, even those near freeways. These areas offer convenient car access but pose challenges for sustainable development due to the potential for increased congestion. This research focuses on developing mobility design strategies to reduce car usage and promote public transit in such peripheral areas. The central research question is: "Which mobility design strategies, regarding public transit and car parking planning, should be implemented to reduce car usage and enhance the attractiveness of public transit in a peripheral urban area?" To address this question, a Discrete Choice Model was developed to analyze commuting mode choice behavior under different scenarios. The research began by identifying influencing factors from the literature, including relevant urban transportation modes (bus, light rail, car, and bike), trip characteristics, personal attributes, and environmental factors. The study focuses on Rijnenburg, an outskirt area of Utrecht, which is poised for significant urban development but faces challenges due to its car-friendly location at the intersection of two major highways. Three design scenarios—Conventional, Sustainable, and Ambitious—were developed based on existing municipal development strategies. These scenarios consider various factors such as public transit stop density, line frequency, route planning, vehicle type, parking facility location, and parking costs. A Stated Preference survey was conducted to gather data from 200 respondents, which informed the construction of both a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and a Panel Mixed Logit (Panel ML) model. While the MNL model was ultimately chosen for its balance of accuracy and interpretability, the study revealed a strong preference for bikes over cars among respondents, highlighting the potential for shifting mode choice through strategic design interventions. The analysis showed that the Ambitious scenario, which includes tougher interventions such as higher parking costs and restricted parking locations, was most effective in reducing car usage. However, the scenario's feasibility was questioned, leading to a recommendation for a hybrid approach combining elements of the Sustainable scenario with stricter car parking measures. The research also highlighted several limitations, including potential biases in the survey sample and the exclusion of certain factors from the model. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that a combination of mobility strategies—focused on optimizing public transit accessibility and increasing barriers to car use—can significantly contribute to sustainable urban development in peripheral areas like Rijnenburg. In conclusion, the recommended strategies, particularly the reduction of transfers in public transit and the strategic location of parking facilities, are expected to play a crucial role in promoting sustainable mobility in Rijnenburg. Further research is recommended to refine these strategies and explore their applicability to a broader range of contexts. ...

Assessing the Đề Gi Port and Storm Shelter System for Development

Student report (2023) - D.K.A. Pham, M.E. Heijl, M. Lai, L.D. Everaars, L.H. Pomp, Y.T. de Waaij, C. Mai Van, A.J. van Binsbergen
In Vietnam, the fishery sector is vital for the economy. The government strives towards an increase in fishing activities in the coming years. The Quy Nhơn port, a key hub in central Vietnam, is set to accommodate more international vessels. This means local fishermen must rely on other ports like Đề Gi, which also needs upgrading to meet aquaculture production goals. To support the fishing sector's growth in Bình Định province, the Khu neo đậu đầm Đề Gi (KND) project is initiated by the local authorities and will contribute to upgrading the Đề Gi port and construct a new storm shelter. However, this project has potential issues: (1) it focuses mainly on storm shelter capacity and does not address the increase of traffic in the current network capacity, (2) the estuary suffers from sedimentation issues, limiting the nautical accessibility of the access channel, resulting in a decrease of port and storm shelter functionality. To tackle these problems the following main question is investigated:

What is the current performance of the Đề Gi port and storm shelter system, and how can engineering methods be used to assess its potential for future growth within the broader context of sustainable socio-economic development?

The main research question is going to be supported by the following sub-questions:

How will the current logistic service network perform in the future vision as foreseen by the responsible authorities and how to verify it with an engineering responsible approach?

How to examine the accessibility of the port and storm shelter in the KND project, while ensuring a safe, robust, durable and effective system?

What are the consequences of the port and storm shelter upgrade on the logistical system and on the conditions in the waterway and what impact does this have on the Đề Gi area?

The main aim of this research is apply engineering methods to understand the system in order to assess its performance and put this in the context of the socio-economic development of the Đề Gi area and the Bình Định province. To achieve this, various research methods are used to analyse the current state of logistic service and nautical accessibility, to identify the bottlenecks in the systems. To include the aspect of incorporating the socio-economics in a broader context of the area, a stakeholder analysis is introduced. For the inland logistic services of the port, a qualitative 4(+1)-transport modelling model is established. For investigating the nautical accessibility, a comprehensive system analysis, including the topics of (1) climate, (2) hydrodynamics, (3) morphodynamics and (4) current and future conditions of the access channel, is conducted to provide insights into nautical accessibility challenges to enhance the safety, robustness, durable and effectiveness of the access channel.

To analyse the logistic service system in the area, field observation in combination with interviews are performed to have a concrete insight into the characteristic harbour patterns, traffic and transportation system and the current transportation network for the goods originating from the harbour. Additionally, various development plans and visions outlined by local authorities are reviewed to gain a comprehensive understanding of the area's future development. By evaluating the current state of the logistic service network alongside the region's development plans, the limitations within the network are identified. The primary bottlenecks in the logistic services system predominantly revolve around capacity and quality issues in the existing road network. Many of these limitations are expected to be addressed through the implementation of the local authorities' development visions. However, for a reliable conclusion, an engineering approach is necessary. To achieve this, a 4(+1)-step transport modelling, coupled with an All-Or-Nothing traffic assignment, is recommended. For the examination of the Đề Gi road network and traffic assignment, this approach provided an initial assessment of the intensity of each link within the study area relative to its corresponding capacity.

The second sub-question is addressed through an analysis and depth assessment, uncovering critical nautical accessibility bottlenecks. These include draught limitations and climate change impacts, potentially compromising safety, robustness, durability, and effectiveness. A depth assessment, considering different vessel types and water levels, provides insights into the current channel status. Safety is a major concern, especially for larger vessels during low water conditions, heightened by climate change. Robustness faces challenges due to sedimentation and storm vulnerabilities. Durability is threatened by changing climate conditions affecting sediment dynamics and storms. Effectiveness remains relatively stable, with 90\% accessibility for the expected future vessel fleet. These findings particularly point to the need for safety and durability measures, especially in light of future climate change predictions, necessitating climate-resilient design.

The third sub-question explores the port and storm shelter upgrade's impact on Đề Gi. Consequences include increased traffic and vessel intensity, on land and through the access channel, and a shift in vessel fleet mix, requiring improved infrastructure and access channel design. This enhances safety and, ultimately, drives socio-economic growth, education, and investment appeal in the Đề Gi area.

In the Đề Gi area, current transportation capacity falls short of future growth needs. Local authorities' development plans aim to resolve logistic service bottlenecks. Nautical accessibility is currently 90\% effective but not consistently safe. Climate change threatens its durability. Engineering models, like the 4(+1) step methodology and comprehensive system analysis in combination with a depth assessment, uncover transport and nautical accessibility challenges. These methods assess future impacts of the port and storm shelter upgrade, benefiting the Đề Gi area with socio-economic development, improved safety and new opportunities for the local community. ...