Gas production in the Groningen field in the Netherlands reactivates faults and induces earthquakes, triggering severe societal unrest. Laboratory experiments indicate the relevant lithologies are velocity-strengthening [1], which favors stable creeping rather than instabilities and thus in theory prohibits earthquake nucleation. This makes the observed seismicity hard to explain. However, slide-hold-slide experiments on the same rocks reveal healing: stress drop and energy release of the subsequent slip after reactivation increase as healing time increases [2]. Given that the Groningen region has been tectonically inactive for millions of years, we will show that the healing history is a key factor for the nucleation of induced earthquakes.

We simulate earthquake sequences on a normal fault governed by rate-and-state friction, crosscutting a depleting gas reservoir. We reproduced the healing behavior observed in the laboratory and extended healing time up to millions of years. Our simulations suggest induced seismicity occur after fault reactivation, no matter whether the frictional behavior is velocity-weakening (VW) or -strengthening (VS). Unlike under VW friction where larger earthquakes with longer recurrence intervals occur as production continues, no subsequent earthquakes are expected under VS friction. No theoretically predictable nucleation size is measured: nucleation zone keeps expanding simultaneously when shear stress is dropping. Rupture propagation is mostly restricted to within the reservoir. Its reduced possibility of propagating into the under- and overburden reduces energy release and thus moment magnitude. The more VS the fault is, the lower the maximum slip rate will be, if under the same healing time. In other words, for a larger (a-b), a longer healing time is required before a large earthquake can happen. Therefore, if the healing history is well constrained, we can have an estimate of the seismic hazard of the coming event before it occurs. However, in order to have an accurate hazard estimate, dynamic weakening mechanisms activated at slip rate of cm/s may not be ignored. Adding flash heating shortens the required healing time by at least eight orders of magnitude in one of our representative models. Parameter space is explored systematically to build analytical expressions of earthquake magnitude as a function of healing time and frictional parameters. This study will help to understand in which tectonic histories, induced seismicity can still occur under VS friction. This is important for forecasting induced seismicity and minimizing the hazard in similar lithologies across northwestern Europe and in subsurface production and storage sites worldwide.

The strength properties of fault rocks at shearing rates spanning the transition from crystal-plastic flow to frictional slip play a central role in determining the distribution of crustal stress, strain, and seismicity in tectonically active regions. We review experimental and microphysical modelling work, which is aimed at elucidating the processes that control the transition from pervasive ductile flow of fault rock to rate-and-state-dependent frictional (RSF) slip and to runaway rupture, carried out at Utrecht University in the past 2 decades or so. We address shear experiments on simulated gouges composed of calcite, halite-phyllosilicate mixtures, and phyllosilicate-quartz mixtures performed under laboratory conditions spanning the brittle-ductile transition. With increasing shear rate (or decreasing temperature), the results consistently show transitions from (1) stable velocity-strengthening (v-strengthening) behaviour, to potentially unstable v-weakening behaviour, and (2) back to v strengthening. Sample microstructures show that the first transition seen at low shear rates and/or high temperatures represents a switch from pervasive, fully ductile deformation to frictional sliding involving dilatant granular flow in localized shear bands where intergranular slip is incompletely accommodated by creep of individual mineral grains. A recent microphysical model, which treats fault rock deformation as controlled by competition between ratesensitive (diffusional or crystal-plastic) deformation of individual grains and rate-insensitive sliding interactions between grains (granular flow), predicts both transitions well. Unlike classical RSF approaches, this model quantitatively reproduces a wide range of (transient) frictional behaviours using input parameters with direct physical meaning, with the latest progress focusing on incorporation of dynamic weakening processes characterizing co-seismic fault rupture. When implemented in numerical codes for crustal fault slip, the model offers a single unified framework for understanding slip patch nucleation and growth to critical (seismogenic) dimensions, as well as for simulating the entire seismic cycle.