Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is increasingly adopted in emerging economies to manage urbanization, but the financial models underpinning these projects often face significant institutional and market risks. This study addresses a gap by using a financial model not merely as a predictive tool, but as a diagnostic lens to critique the implementation of Indonesian TOD policy. We argue that the dominant model being built is not an integrated transport system but a financially fragile, property-led real estate project. This paper conducts an in-depth, quantitative single-case study of the Poris Plawad TOD project in Greater Jakarta. A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model was developed to assess the project’s Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) over a 25-year lifecycle. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis and stress-test scenarios were performed to evaluate the project’s viability against correlated, “front-loaded” risks. The analysis reveals that the project is marginally viable under its base case, with an IRR (10.30%) that only slightly exceeds the WACC (8.74%). The stress-test scenarios demonstrate that the project is not resilient. A realistic scenario combining a 3-year delay and a 20% CAPEX overrun causes the project to become unfeasible, with an IRR of 5.80%. The findings show this financial fragility is a direct result of its model of a real estate venture structurally disconnected from high-capacity rail transit. The paper recommends a combination of Land Value Capture (LVC), Viability Gap Funding (VGF), and tailored Rail + Property (R + P) models to create a more resilient financial foundation for TOD initiatives in emerging economies.

Logistics infrastructure is crucial in urban freight transport and regional economic growth. Airport-centric development has emerged as a potential solution for urban logistics by enabling faster freight movement and broader geographic coverage while integrating business, commercial, and industrial zones. However, this approach faces significant challenges, particularly in emerging economies like Indonesia, where limited public funding creates a substantial infrastructure financing gap. This study proposes a conceptual design for airport-centric logistics infrastructure to address this issue, using Radin Inten II International Airport in Lampung Province, Indonesia, as a case study. The research adopts a mixed exploratory-descriptive approach that integrates land use planning, transportation networks, and zoning regulations with financial engineering analysis through Life Cycle Cost (LCC) to evaluate spatial and financial feasibility. This study develops the Logistic Aerocity concept, which consists of five key zones: Airport Development, Integrated Logistics Hub, Industrial Park, Commercial Area, and Urban Open Space. The financial analysis confirms that a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) financing scheme enhances investment viability and attracts private-sector participation. The projected Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 15.86% demonstrates the effectiveness of cost-sharing mechanisms between the public and private sectors in ensuring long-term financial sustainability. These insights provide a strategic foundation for policymakers and investors to enhance logistics infrastructure and strengthen urban connectivity through airport-centric development.

Micro, Small, and Medium Business (MSMEs) are vital to the Indonesian economic development, and the government is focusing on this sector for post-pandemic recovery. There is an emphasis on infrastructure such as urban green spaces, or Ruang Terbuka Hijau (RTH). RTHs have untapped potential as centers for agricultural and processing MSMEs. However, these businesses often face financing challenges, prompting the exploration of alternative scheme like crowdfunding. Therefore, this study aimed to (1) explore how RTH lands can be leveraged for local economic activities, and (2) devise a public fund-based crowdfunding financing model. Using RTH Kalijodo in Jakarta as a case study, the study included literature reviews, benchmarking, fieldwork, and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. The results show the need for the development of vertical hydroponics, tilapia farming, and tilapia fillet processing business in RTH Kalijodo. Financial analyses, including IRR calculations exceeding the 10.41% WACC, a positive NPV, and a payback period under five years, show the financial viability of these sectors.