LA
L. Allione
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Managing the twilight
A comprehensive forecast and analysis of PV End of Life at a Global, Regional and National scale
The rapid adoption of photovoltaics (PV) is crucial for meeting global climate goals, yet it presents significant challenges related to PV waste management. This research aims to project PV end-of-life (EoL) streams glob- ally, regionally, and nationally, with some focus on the effects that an aging PV fleet will have on demand for PV modules. Utilizing the PV ICE software developed by NREL, this study models the degradation, failure, and EoL processes of PV modules, accounting for new installation rates and technological advancements. The methodology involves three key components: PV capacity installation forecasts, module technology characteris- tics, and EoL determination. Historical and projected PV installation data were sourced from IRENA, IEA, and LUT University. These data were interpolated and modeled using polynomial and sigmoid functions to predict capacity growth. Module aging was simulated through degradation rates, random failures modeled by Weibull distribution, and economic lifetimes. The PV ICE tool facilitated these simulations, converting capacity forecasts into material flows, from installation to removal. Global PV EoL volumes are expected to increase significantly starting from 2040, reaching 42 million tons of cumulative material by 2050, and potentially surging to 432 million tons in the low scenario and 1 billion tons in the high scenario by 2070. Simultaneously, the PV market will see increased demand, with projections indicating a 62% rise in the low scenario (from 14.7 TW to 23.8 TW) and a 28% rise in the high scenario (from 95.8 TW to 122.8 TW). Regionally, Asia & Oceania is the region forecasted to generate the most EoL material, with 274 million tons in the low scenario and 539 million tons in the high scenario by 2070. Europe and North America will also see significant volumes, with Europe reaching 57 million tons and North America 65 million tons in the low scenario, rising to 141 million tons and 107 million tons, respectively, in the high scenario. The high scenario also forecasts Africa to become the secondary global hub for PV EoL volumes and for demand of new modules. Nationally, China is projected to accumulate the largest volume of EoL material, with 197 million tons by 2070, followed by the USA (49 million tons) and India (33 million tons). The findings highlight a substantial increase in PV waste volumes, necessitating the development of large-scale recycling infrastructure, Regional and national disparities underscore the need for specific and potentially collab- orative waste management strategies. The impact of modules reaching End of Life not only emphasizes the need for the development of effective collection and recycling policies but will also allow the solar manufacturing in- dustry to keep producing at high output levels. The industry in fact will need to scale up considerably in the next few decades and modules intended for the replacement of aging capacity will allow for continuous production, enabling investments in manufacturing capacity fundamental for the global energy present and future.
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The rapid adoption of photovoltaics (PV) is crucial for meeting global climate goals, yet it presents significant challenges related to PV waste management. This research aims to project PV end-of-life (EoL) streams glob- ally, regionally, and nationally, with some focus on the effects that an aging PV fleet will have on demand for PV modules. Utilizing the PV ICE software developed by NREL, this study models the degradation, failure, and EoL processes of PV modules, accounting for new installation rates and technological advancements. The methodology involves three key components: PV capacity installation forecasts, module technology characteris- tics, and EoL determination. Historical and projected PV installation data were sourced from IRENA, IEA, and LUT University. These data were interpolated and modeled using polynomial and sigmoid functions to predict capacity growth. Module aging was simulated through degradation rates, random failures modeled by Weibull distribution, and economic lifetimes. The PV ICE tool facilitated these simulations, converting capacity forecasts into material flows, from installation to removal. Global PV EoL volumes are expected to increase significantly starting from 2040, reaching 42 million tons of cumulative material by 2050, and potentially surging to 432 million tons in the low scenario and 1 billion tons in the high scenario by 2070. Simultaneously, the PV market will see increased demand, with projections indicating a 62% rise in the low scenario (from 14.7 TW to 23.8 TW) and a 28% rise in the high scenario (from 95.8 TW to 122.8 TW). Regionally, Asia & Oceania is the region forecasted to generate the most EoL material, with 274 million tons in the low scenario and 539 million tons in the high scenario by 2070. Europe and North America will also see significant volumes, with Europe reaching 57 million tons and North America 65 million tons in the low scenario, rising to 141 million tons and 107 million tons, respectively, in the high scenario. The high scenario also forecasts Africa to become the secondary global hub for PV EoL volumes and for demand of new modules. Nationally, China is projected to accumulate the largest volume of EoL material, with 197 million tons by 2070, followed by the USA (49 million tons) and India (33 million tons). The findings highlight a substantial increase in PV waste volumes, necessitating the development of large-scale recycling infrastructure, Regional and national disparities underscore the need for specific and potentially collab- orative waste management strategies. The impact of modules reaching End of Life not only emphasizes the need for the development of effective collection and recycling policies but will also allow the solar manufacturing in- dustry to keep producing at high output levels. The industry in fact will need to scale up considerably in the next few decades and modules intended for the replacement of aging capacity will allow for continuous production, enabling investments in manufacturing capacity fundamental for the global energy present and future.