People around the world seek climate risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate risk services should provide, many expect noncommercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: Only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code although this is a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that noncommercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate risk management.

The Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the fourth-largest river basin in the world, is an important corridor for hydroelectric power generation, agricultural and industrial production, riverine transportation, and ecosystem goods and services. Historically, flooding of the Mississippi River has resulted in significant economic losses. In a future with an intensified global hydrological cycle, the altered discharge of the river may jeopardize communities and infrastructure situated in the floodplain. This study utilizes output from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble simulations spanning 1930 to 2100 to quantify changes in future MRB discharge under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP3–7.0). The simulations show that increasing precipitation trends exceed and dominate increased evapotranspiration (ET), driving an overall increase in total discharge in the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River basins. On a seasonal scale, reduced spring snowmelt is projected in the Ohio and Missouri River basins, leading to reduced spring runoff in those regions. However, decreased snowmelt and spring runoff is overshadowed by a larger increase in projected precipitation minus ET over the entire basin and leads to an increase in mean river discharge. This increase in discharge is linked to a relatively small increase in the magnitude of extreme floods (2 % and 3 % for 100-year and 1000-year floods, respectively) by the late 21st century relative to the late 20th century. Our analyses imply that under SSP3–7.0 forcing, the Mississippi River and Tributaries (MR&T) project design flood would not be exceeded at the 100-year return period. Our results harbor implications for water resources management including increased vulnerability of the Mississippi River given projected changes in climate.

The Mississippi River is a vital economic corridor used for generating hydroelectric power, transporting agricultural products, and municipal and industrial water use. Communities, industries, and infrastructure along the Mississippi River face an uncertain future as it grows more susceptible to climate extremes. A key challenge is determining whether Mississippi river discharge will increase or decrease during the 21st century. Because the 20th century record is limited in time, paleoclimate data and model simulations provide enhanced understanding of the basin's hydroclimate response to external forcing. Here, we investigate how anthropogenic forcing in the 20th century shifts the statistics of river discharge compared to a Last Millennium (LM) baseline using simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble. We present evidence that the 20th century exhibits wetter conditions (i.e., increased river discharge) over the basin compared to the pre-industrial, and that land use/land cover changes have a significant control on the hydroclimatic response. Conversely, while precipitation is projected to increase in the 21st century, the basin is generally drier (i.e., decreased river discharge) compared to the 20th century. Overall, we find that changes in greenhouse gases contribute to a lower risk of extreme discharge and flooding in the basin during the 20th century, while land use changes contribute to increased risk of flooding. The additional climate information afforded by the LM simulations offers an improved understanding of what drove extreme flooding events in the past, which can help inform the development of future regional flood mitigation strategies.