A.W. van der Meer
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Early warnings of potential dike failure can help prevent casualties and reduce economic losses. Slope stability is one of the main failure mechanisms of dikes and is characterized by large negative vertical displacements of the dikes’ crest. Prior to the large displacements, small displacements can already be observed and serve as an early warning signal for dike failure. In this conference article, dike failure is predicted using displacement observations for an idealized case. The results show that the closer the prediction is made to the time to failure, the more certain the prediction becomes. However, measurement error can greatly influence the accuracy of failure probability estimation.
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Early warnings of potential dike failure can help prevent casualties and reduce economic losses. Slope stability is one of the main failure mechanisms of dikes and is characterized by large negative vertical displacements of the dikes’ crest. Prior to the large displacements, small displacements can already be observed and serve as an early warning signal for dike failure. In this conference article, dike failure is predicted using displacement observations for an idealized case. The results show that the closer the prediction is made to the time to failure, the more certain the prediction becomes. However, measurement error can greatly influence the accuracy of failure probability estimation.