This study presents a simulation-based damage modeling and fatigue risk assessment of a reusable ceramic matrix composite thruster designed for short-duration, green bipropellant propulsion systems. The thruster is constructed from a fiber-reinforced ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composite composed of zirconium diboride, silicon carbide, and carbon fibers. Time-resolved thermal and structural simulations are conducted on a validated thruster geometry to characterize the severity of early-stage thermal shock, stress buildup, and potential degradation pathways. Unlike traditional fatigue studies that rely on empirical fatigue constants or Paris-law-based crack-growth models, this work introduces a simulation-derived stress-margin envelope methodology that incorporates ±20% variability in temperature-dependent material strength, offering a physically grounded yet conservative risk estimate. From this, a normalized risk index is derived to evaluate the likelihood of damage initiation in critical regions over the 0–10 s firing window. The results indicate that the convergent throat region experiences a peak thermal gradient rate of approximately 380 K/s, with the normalized thermal shock index exceeding 43. Stress margins in this region collapse by 2.3 s, while margin loss in the flange curvature appears near 8 s. These findings are mapped into green, yellow, and red risk bands to classify operational safety zones. All the results assume no active cooling, representing conservative operating limits. If regenerative or ablative cooling is implemented, these margins would improve significantly. The framework established here enables a transparent, reproducible methodology for evaluating lifetime safety in ceramic propulsion nozzles and serves as a foundational tool for fatigue-resilient component design in green space engines.

This study presents a comprehensive finite element investigation into the design optimization of an ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composite thruster for green bipropellant systems. Focusing on ZrB2–SiC–Cfiber composites, it explores their thermal and mechanical response under realistic transient combustion conditions. Two geometries, a simplified and a complex full-featured model, were evaluated to assess the impact of geometric fidelity on stress prediction. The complex thruster model (CTM) offered improved resolution of temperature gradients and stress concentrations, especially near flange and convergent regions, and was adopted for optimization. A parametric study with nine wall thickness profiles identified a 2 mm tapered configuration in both convergent and divergent sections that minimized mass while maintaining structural integrity. This optimized profile reduced peak thermal stress and overall mass without compromising safety margins. Transient thermal and strain analyses showed that thermal stress dominates initially (≤3 s), while thermal strain becomes critical later due to stiffness degradation. Damage risk was evaluated using temperature-dependent stress margins at four critical locations. Time-dependent failure maps revealed throat degradation for short burns and flange cracking for longer durations. All analyses were conducted under hot-fire conditions without cooling. The validated methodology supports durable, lightweight nozzle designs for future green propulsion missions.