The Lagos State coastline is increasingly vulnerable to erosion, driven by both a dominant eastward longshore sediment transport and ongoing human interventions. Climate change, through rising sea levels and a changing wave climate, is expected to further influence shoreline dynamics in the coming decades. Understanding how these factors interact is crucial for supporting long-term coastal management along this coastline of major economic and social significance. This study investigates the impact of climate change on shoreline evolution over a 50-year timescale, focusing on sea level rise, changes in significant wave height, and changes in wave direction. The onedimensional shoreline evolution model ShorelineS was applied and calibrated using satellite derived historical shoreline data. Simulations were performed for a range of climate scenarios, allowing for a separate evaluation of the individual contributions of sea level rise, changing wave height, and changing wave direction to coastal erosion and accretion patterns. Longshore sediment transport is projected to increase by up to 20% by 2075 under extreme RCP8.5 scenarios. This intensification directly drives changes in shoreline dynamics, leading to amplified erosion in some areas and enhanced accretion in others. Projected shoreline retreat can reach up to 700 meters locally under baseline conditions (i.e., without climate change) by 2075. Climate change can further amplify these patterns, with shoreline retreat increasing by up to 10% in erosion-prone areas near coastal structures. In contrast, accretive zones show a more moderated response due to counteracting effects between sea level rise and wave-driven accretion. Wave direction changes were found to have the strongest localized impact on shoreline retreat near coastal structures, while the influence of wave height changes was less consistent and more variable along the coast. Sea level rise causes relatively uniform retreat along the entire coastline. The results provide spatially explicit projections of shoreline retreat and accretion, offering insights into areas most at risk. These findings support the development of targeted, adaptive coastal management strategies for Lagos State in the face of a changing climate.